The links to the two relevant posts are given at the end of this post. Those links explain the regression method and have links to the complete rankings. The basic idea is that if a guy got fewer MVP shares or fewer Hall of Fame votes than expected based on his WAR, he was considered underrated.
Some players were very underrated in one measure but very overrated in the other. The MVP study had 810 players and the Hall of Fame study had 430. So the ranks are not quite comparable.
Table 1 shows how the 20 most underrated by the Hall of Fame measure ranked in the MVP measure.
Table 1
HOF Rank |
Player |
MVP Rank |
1 |
Ron Santo |
53 |
2 |
Ken Boyer |
524 |
3 |
Bobby Grich |
9 |
4 |
Duke Snider |
620 |
5 |
Scott Rolen |
11 |
6 |
Eddie Mathews |
5 |
7 |
Dick Allen |
624 |
8 |
Sal Bando |
354 |
9 |
Richie Ashburn |
24 |
10 |
Jim Wynn |
46 |
11 |
Kenny Lofton |
17 |
12 |
Cesar Cedeno |
60 |
13 |
Jim Fregosi |
101 |
14 |
Alan Trammell |
56 |
15 |
Bobby Abreu |
12 |
16 |
Graig Nettles |
14 |
17 |
Buddy Bell |
8 |
18 |
Keith Hernandez |
707 |
19 |
Minnie Minoso |
738 |
20 |
Bobby Bonds |
163 |
Table 2 shows how the 20 most underrated by the MVP measure ranked in the Hall of Fame measure.
Table 2
MVP Rank |
Player |
HOF Rank |
1 |
Lou Whitaker |
30 |
2 |
Willie Mays |
340 |
3 |
Wade Boggs |
393 |
4 |
Rickey Henderson |
392 |
5 |
Eddie Mathews |
6 |
6 |
Willie Randolph |
36 |
7 |
Ozzie Smith |
426 |
8 |
Buddy Bell |
17 |
9 |
Bobby Grich |
3 |
10 |
Willie Davis |
NA |
11 |
Scott Rolen |
5 |
12 |
Bobby Abreu |
15 |
13 |
Chet Lemon |
28 |
14 |
Graig Nettles |
16 |
15 |
Johnny Damon |
69 |
16 |
Darrell Evans |
31 |
17 |
Kenny Lofton |
11 |
18 |
Hank Aaron |
390 |
19 |
Carl Yastrzemski |
399 |
20 |
Tony Phillips |
51 |
When I did the original posts back in 2014, Damon, Rolen & Abreu had not yet become eligible for the Hall of Fame. Since they have come up on the ballot after that, I estimated their predicted vote % and ranked them accordingly. Willie Davis never actually appeared on a Hall of Fame Ballot.
Here are the two original studies:
Was Willie Mays The Most Underrated Player In History? Or Was It Wade Boggs? Is Albert Pujols The Most Overrated? (Revised) (has the MVP study)
Update Jan. 9: Joe Posnanski recently came up with a top 10 list. See Baseball's Most Underrated Players Ever.
Five of the seven guys I have highlighted in red above made his top 10 (the guys who were in the top 20 of both of my studies). They were
Bobby Abreu
Buddy Bell
Bobby Grich
Kenny Lofton
Eddie Mathews
What about the other five on Posnanski's list? How did they do in both of my studies? In general, they were underrated in both.
Willie Davis was number 10 in my MVP vote study but did not have a rank in the Hall of Fame study since his name never actually appeared on the ballot. If we give him 0% his score would be -.22 since he would have been expected to get 22% of the vote. That would put him 21st in the Hall of Fame study.
Darrell Evans would be 32nd in the Hall of Fame study if we included Davis. He was 16th in the MVP study.
Lou Whitaker was first in the MVP study and 31st in the Hall of Fame study.
Dwight Evans was 47th in the Hall of Fame study and 54th in the MVP study
Keith Hernandez was 19th in the Hall of Fame study and was 707th in the MVP voting study (which means he did well in the MVP voting during his career).
The two guys among the seven who were in the top 20 of both my MVP study and my Hall of Fame study that are not in Joe Posnanski's top 10 are Scott Rolen and Craig Nettles.
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