How is team wOBA differential related to winning percentage?

I had bases.chat, the baseball AI program created by SABR member Ted Ingram, calculate wOBA and wOBA allowed for all teams over the years 2021-2025 combined. Information about wOBA is at the end of this post.

This graph shows the relationship.

 

The regression equation or the trend line equation has an intercept of .4999. Almost exactly .500. That would mean that a team with a zero differential would be a .500 team. The intercept that I usually get if I do this with OPS differential is also about .500.

The r-squared of .94 means that 94% of the variation in winning percentage is explained by wOBA differential.

Tom Tango created wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average). Here is one version of the formula

 

wOBA = 

 

(0.690×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.888×1B + 1.271×2B + 1.616×3B + 2.101×HR) 

 

divided by 

 

(AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP) 

 

uBB means unintentional walks. The coefficients on the events in the numerator vary slightly from year to year. 

 

For further information: 

The Beginner’s Guide To Deriving wOBA by Neil Weinberg of FanGraphs.

 

Guts! This has the annual coefficients for wOBA from FanGraphs

 

Was wOBA Actually Invented Nearly 100 Years Ago? This is another article from FanGraphs. Discusses the work of Baseball Magazine editor F.C. Lane. He came up with values for batting events that were close to what we see with linear weights.

26 times from 1962-2011 a player led his league in OBP and won a Gold Glove in the same season but it has not been done since 2011

I used bases.chat, the AI program created by SABR member Ted Ingram, to find all of these cases. I wonder why it has not been done since 2011? After the table I will list any players since 2011 who led their league in OBP and won a Gold Glove, but not in the same season.

Name	Year	Lg.	OBP	Pos.
Mickey Mantle	1962	AL	0.486	OF
Carl Yastrzemski	1963	AL	0.418	OF
Ron Santo	1964	NL	0.398	3B
Carl Yastrzemski	1965	AL	0.395	OF
Willie Mays	1965	NL	0.398	OF
Ron Santo	1966	NL	0.412	3B
Carl Yastrzemski	1967	AL	0.418	OF
Carl Yastrzemski	1968	AL	0.426	OF
Joe Morgan	1974	NL	0.427	2B
Joe Morgan	1975	NL	0.466	2B
Joe Morgan	1976	NL	0.444	2B
Fred Lynn	1979	AL	0.423	OF
Keith Hernandez	1980	NL	0.408	1B
Mike Schmidt	1981	NL	0.435	3B
Dwight Evans	1982	AL	0.402	OF
Mike Schmidt	1982	NL	0.403	3B
Mike Schmidt	1983	NL	0.399	3B
Eddie Murray	1984	AL	0.41	1B
Barry Bonds	1991	NL	0.41	OF
Barry Bonds	1992	NL	0.456	OF
Barry Bonds	1993	NL	0.458	OF
Larry Walker	1997	NL	0.452	OF
Larry Walker	1999	NL	0.458	OF
Albert Pujols	2006	NL	0.431	1B
Joe Mauer	2009	AL	0.444	C
Joey Votto	2011	NL	0.416	1B

Here are the players who have led their league in OBP at least once since 2011. Each line first shows when they led in OBP then all the years they won a Gold Glove Award. I included GGs before 2012. Mauer and Votto are also among the players who did them both in the same year as seen in the table above

Mauer   OBP 2012   GG 8-9-10

 

DJ LeMahieu   OBP 2020   GG 14-17-18-22

 

Vladimir Guerrero    OBP 2021   GG 2022

Freeman   OBP 2022   GG 2018

Yelich   OBP 2019   GG 2014

Votto   OBP 2012-13-16-17-18   GG 2011

 

McCutchen   OBP 2014   GG 2012

The only close case is Vladimir Guerrero who won a GG a year after leading in OBP.