Monday, October 28, 2013

Its 31 Degrees In Denver Right Now

The low is supposed to be 29. Accuweather also says "Snow flurries late tomorrow night." So its good that the World Series is not there. Minneapolis has 39 with snow before dawn. Low is supposed to be 32

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Its 37 Degrees In Cleveland Right Now

They have a 50% of rain tonight and a chance of snow, too. If the World Series was there, they might not be able to play.

Cincinnati is also 37 with a low of 27 forecast. They have a good chance of rain and snow, too.

It is 40 in Pittsburgh. Wind is 14. Chance of rain and snow.

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Weather In Some Major League Cities

With the World Series starting tonight, I wondered what the weather was like in other cities and what the conditions would be if the series was not in Boston or St. Louis.

Right now it is 35 in Minneapolis with a forecast low of 25 (according to AccuWeather). At least there is no snow. The wind is supposed to be under 10 mph all night.

It is 57 in Denver with a low of 35 tonight. Winds are light and no precipitation.

It is 41 in Chicago with 50% chance of rain. The low is supposed to be 33

It is 41 in Cleveland with a chance of rain and snow. The low is supposed to be 35.

Pittsburgh is at 39. They also have a chance of rain and snow with a low of 34.

Cincinnati is 40 with a low of 31

So things could be a bit worse than the 49 in Boston. It is 41 in St. Louis right now with a 40% chance of rain.


Saturday, October 19, 2013

Is Ben Zimmer Right About Intangibles?

See I Can't Say What It Is, but He's Got It from today's Wall Street Journal. You might need to be a subscriber to read it. Excerpts:
"When Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell made the decision to keep light-hitting left fielder Jonny Gomes in the lineup against the Detroit Tigers in the American League Championship Series this week, he acknowledged that his choice had nothing do with the numbers. "The one thing that we can't fully measure is the intangibles that Jonny Gomes brings," Mr. Farrell said.

Last week, another Red Sox outfielder was hailed in a similar way. Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon, whose team lost to the Red Sox in the first round of the playoffs, had this to say of Shane Victorino : "He just drips with intangibles.""

"The first player who was routinely praised for his "intangibles" was the scrappy second baseman Eddie Stanky, nicknamed "The Brat." In the words of Leo Durocher, who managed Stanky with the Brooklyn Dodgers and New York Giants, "He can't hit, can't run, can't field... All the little S.O.B. can do is win.""

"When Stanky joined the Giants in 1950, he was keenly aware that his value to the team was hard to measure."

"Intangibles" have persisted in baseball despite the advent of complex statistical analyses that seek to capture all facets of a player's on-field talents. For stat-heads, talk of "intangibles" is a fuzzy-minded refusal to grasp empirical data. But until baseball is taken over by robots, there will always be a need to label natural gifts that elude quantification."
Luck or randomness will always play a role in baseball. The best team does not always win and then we start spinning to stories to explain why on team did win. Were the Mets better than the Orioles in 1969? Maybe. But the Orioles won 91 in games in 1968, 109 in 1969 and 108 in 1970 (winning the World Series). The Mets win totals were 73-100-83. They did not even win their division in 1970, let alone the Series.

The 1927 Yankees had a 4 game losing in streak in the middle of the season, all against teams with losing records (both at the time and at the end of the season). The two teams were the White Sox and Indians.

The article says Jonny Gomes is light hitting but he had an OPS+ this year of 111. 100 is average. Last year he had 142.

Victorino had a WAR of 6.1 this year, 9th best in the AL among position players. He was 10th in the NL in 2011. It seems like he looks pretty darn good based on quantitative measures.

Stanky is famous for not being good at anything but still helping his teams win. He had 4 top 10 finishes in WAR in his career, including a 1st in 1950. He had 7 top 10 finishes in fielding WAR. He had 5 top 5 finishes in OBP, including to 1st place finishes. Maybe back then getting walks was not recognized as a skill, but it sure is now. He led the league in walks 3 times and had a total of 7 top 10 finishes. Maybe he was not fast, but the numbers sure show what skills he did have that contribute to winning.

Branch Rickey did not think much of intangibles. Here is what he wrote in LIFE magazine in 1954:
"But somehow baseball's intangibles balance out. They reflect themselves in other ways. Over an entire season, or many seasons, individuals and teams build an accumulation of mathematical constants. A man can work with them. He can measure results and establish values. He can then construct a formula which expresses something tangible..."

Friday, October 11, 2013

Haven't We Seen This Movie Before?

A pitcher named Kelly is added to the St. Louis rotation and he plays a big role in their making the post-season.

That is basically what happens in the movie "It Happens Every Spring" starring Ray Milland.

In the video below, go to about 34:30 and then watch for about 20 seconds. You will see what a great pitcher Kelly (Milland) was and why his team won the pennant. Click here to go to a page where you can watch the whole movie



Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Bob Melvin Said Coco Crisp Is His Best Clutch Hitter

Or maybe he said favorite. This is what one of the announcers just said during today's game. Crisp then got a single to drive in a run in the 7th which put the A's ahead by one run. But here are his career splits from Baseball Reference. He does not look like much of a clutch hitter.


Split AVG OBP SLG
RISP 0.286 0.347 0.415
None on 0.273 0.328 0.418
Men On 0.272 0.333 0.399
Late & Close 0.267 0.335 0.394


Saturday, October 5, 2013

Who Held The Single Season Record For Isolated Power Relative To The League Average Before Babe Ruth Came Along?

George Hall. He did it in 1876. Below are the top 10 seasons from 1876-1918. Hall's ISO divided by the league average is 3.14 (.179/.057). Times 100 is 314. This comes from the Lee Sinins database and there may be some rounding issues here. Ruth broke the record with 353 in 1919. Hall's 316 is still 9th all-time. Only Ruth and Gehrig ever did better (Ruth has the highest with 433 in 1920).

Player YEAR REL ISO ISO LG ISO
George Hall 1876 316 0.179 0.057
Fred Dunlap 1884 292 0.209 0.072
Ross Barnes 1876 285 0.161 0.057
Ned Williamson 1884 283 0.276 0.097
Buck Freeman 1899 280 0.245 0.087
Dan Brouthers 1881 269 0.222 0.083
Honus Wagner 1908 265 0.188 0.071
Lip Pike 1876 263 0.149 0.057
Tip O'Neill 1887 261 0.255 0.098
Tom York 1878 260 0.156 0.060

Hall's team scored 7.61 runs per game at home in 1876 and only 4.76 on the road. So his park might have helped him. But they allowed 9.09 at home and 9.00 on the road. Baseball Reference gives him an OPS+ of 204 that year, 3rd highest in the NL from 1876-99 after Barnes (235, 1876) and Brouthers (208, 1886).

Hall's last year was 1877 at age 28. His OPS+ fell but was still a good 132. Wikipedia reports he was banned from baseball for betting. The Baseball Library has similar information.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

The Best Teams In OPS Differential All Made The Playoffs

Here are all the teams ranked from highest to lowest. The top 8 teams are all in the playoffs right now and the top 11 teams all made it to at least one kind of playoff game. HOPS is the OPS  a team's batter achieved and POPS is what their pitchers allowed.


TEAM HOPS POPS DIFF
Detroit 0.780 0.681 0.099
Boston 0.795 0.710 0.085
Oakland 0.745 0.678 0.067
Pittsburgh 0.709 0.650 0.059
St. Louis 0.733 0.680 0.053
Atlanta 0.723 0.671 0.052
LA Dodgers 0.722 0.670 0.052
Tampa Bay 0.737 0.686 0.051
Cincinnati 0.718 0.683 0.035
Texas 0.735 0.701 0.034
Cleveland 0.737 0.708 0.029
Washington 0.710 0.683 0.027
LA Angels 0.743 0.736 0.007
Baltimore 0.744 0.749 -0.005
Kansas City 0.694 0.699 -0.005
Milwaukee 0.708 0.713 -0.005
San Francisco 0.702 0.710 -0.008
Arizona 0.715 0.731 -0.016
Toronto 0.729 0.750 -0.021
Colorado 0.741 0.763 -0.022
Chicago Cubs 0.693 0.718 -0.025
NY Mets 0.672 0.709 -0.037
San Diego 0.686 0.725 -0.039
Seattle 0.695 0.736 -0.041
NY Yankees 0.683 0.731 -0.048
Chicago Sox 0.680 0.730 -0.050
Philadelphia 0.690 0.746 -0.056
Miami 0.627 0.703 -0.076
Minnesota 0.692 0.770 -0.078
Houston 0.674 0.792 -0.118

Wednesday, October 2, 2013

Which Players Had The Most Imbalanced Careers Using OBP & SLG?

Like the last post, I used relative values. All players here had 5000+ PAs through 2012. Kingman's career SLG of  .478 was 22% higher than average while his OBP was 9% below average. So his ratio here is 1.34 (122/91).

Player RELSLG SLG RELOBP OBP SLG/OBP
Dave Kingman 122 0.478 91 0.302 1.34
Juan Gonzalez 133 0.561 101 0.343 1.32
Tony Armas 114 0.453 88 0.287 1.30
Babe Ruth 171 0.690 133 0.474 1.29
Joe DiMaggio 142 0.579 112 0.398 1.27
Hank Greenberg 147 0.605 116 0.412 1.27
Matt Williams 118 0.489 94 0.317 1.26
Andre Dawson 123 0.482 98 0.323 1.26
Lee May 119 0.459 95 0.313 1.25
Sammy Sosa 126 0.534 101 0.344 1.25
Willie Stargell 137 0.529 110 0.360 1.25
Johnny Mize 144 0.562 116 0.397 1.24
Albert Belle 134 0.564 108 0.369 1.24
Ernie Banks 124 0.500 100 0.330 1.24
Alfonso Soriano 119 0.505 96 0.323 1.24
Wally Berger 128 0.522 104 0.359 1.23
George Bell 118 0.469 96 0.316 1.23
Joe Carter 113 0.464 92 0.306 1.23
Hank Aaron 140 0.555 114 0.374 1.23
Hal Trosky 126 0.522 103 0.371 1.22
Al Simmons 128 0.535 105 0.380 1.22
Lou Gehrig 151 0.632 124 0.447 1.22
Jimmie Foxx 146 0.609 120 0.428 1.22
George Foster 124 0.480 102 0.338 1.22
Jeff Heath 130 0.509 107 0.370 1.21

Now the lowest ratio

Player RELSLG SLG RELOBP OBP SLG/OBP
Eddie Yost 94 0.371 114 0.394 0.82
Chone Figgins 86 0.364 105 0.349 0.82
Jason Kendall 88 0.378 108 0.366 0.81
David Eckstein 83 0.355 102 0.345 0.81
Ozzie Smith 83 0.328 102 0.337 0.81
Don Blasingame 80 0.327 99 0.329 0.81
Mark Belanger 74 0.280 92 0.300 0.80
Muddy Ruel 81 0.332 101 0.365 0.80
Donie Bush 85 0.300 106 0.356 0.80
Craig Counsell 80 0.344 100 0.342 0.80
Ron Hunt 90 0.347 113 0.368 0.80
Jim Gilliam 86 0.355 108 0.360 0.80
Richie Ashburn 93 0.382 117 0.396 0.79
Paul Radford 84 0.308 106 0.351 0.79
Johnny Temple 85 0.351 108 0.363 0.79
Miller Huggins 92 0.314 117 0.382 0.79
Willie Randolph 89 0.351 114 0.373 0.78
Mark McLemore 80 0.341 103 0.349 0.78
Roy Thomas 97 0.333 126 0.413 0.77
Walt Weiss 79 0.326 104 0.351 0.76
Bud Harrelson 75 0.288 100 0.327 0.75
Luis Castillo 81 0.351 108 0.368 0.75
Max Bishop 88 0.366 118 0.423 0.75
Otis Nixon 76 0.314 102 0.343 0.75
Eddie Stanky 89 0.348 120 0.410 0.74

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

The Most Imbalanced Seasons Using SLG & OBP, Part 2

This time I used relative values. First, the highest SLG/OBP ratios but using the relative stats (divided by the league average, pitchers not included). In 1976, Kingman's SLG was 35% better than average while his OBP was 13% below average. So the 135/87 = 1.55


Player YEAR SLG REL OBP REL SLG/OBP
Dave Kingman 1976 0.506 135 0.286 87 1.55
Dave Kingman 1975 0.494 129 0.284 84 1.54
Matt Williams 1994 0.607 141 0.319 93 1.52
Dave Kingman 1979 0.613 154 0.343 103 1.50
Walker Cooper 1947 0.586 144 0.339 97 1.48
Juan Gonzalez 1992 0.529 137 0.304 93 1.47
Tony Armas 1983 0.453 113 0.254 78 1.45
Buck Freeman 1899 0.563 149 0.362 103 1.45
Tony Armas 1984 0.531 133 0.300 92 1.45
Hank Greenberg 1946 0.604 159 0.373 110 1.45
Hal Trosky 1936 0.644 147 0.382 102 1.44
Babe Ruth 1921 0.846 201 0.512 140 1.44
Ernie Banks 1968 0.469 132 0.287 92 1.43
Frank Howard 1968 0.552 157 0.338 110 1.43
Johnny Bench 1970 0.587 144 0.345 101 1.43
Babe Ruth 1920 0.847 212 0.532 149 1.42
Juan Gonzalez 1993 0.632 155 0.368 109 1.42
Lou Gehrig 1927 0.765 186 0.474 131 1.42
Sammy Sosa 1996 0.564 134 0.323 95 1.41
Matt Williams 1993 0.561 136 0.325 97 1.40
Andre Dawson 1987 0.568 136 0.328 97 1.40
Joe Adcock 1956 0.597 143 0.337 102 1.40

Now the highest OBP/SLG ratios


Player YEAR OBP REL SLG REL OBP/SLG
Yank Robinson 1890 0.434 121 0.281 72 1.68
Walt Weiss 1995 0.403 119 0.321 76 1.57
Max Bishop 1927 0.442 122 0.323 78 1.56
Goat Anderson 1907 0.343 108 0.225 70 1.54
Rickey Henderson 2000 0.368 105 0.305 69 1.52
Miller Huggins 1913 0.432 129 0.317 86 1.50
Richie Ashburn 1960 0.415 126 0.338 84 1.50
Mark McLemore 1998 0.369 109 0.317 73 1.49
Desi Relaford 2000 0.351 100 0.300 67 1.49
Max Bishop 1926 0.431 119 0.325 80 1.49
Max Bishop 1929 0.398 111 0.316 75 1.48
Gregor Blanco 2008 0.366 108 0.309 73 1.48
Otis Nixon 1996 0.377 108 0.327 73 1.48
Rickey Henderson 1996 0.410 121 0.344 82 1.48
Richie Ashburn 1959 0.360 107 0.307 73 1.47
Rickey Henderson 1997 0.400 117 0.342 80 1.46
Roy Thomas 1900 0.451 130 0.335 89 1.46
Steve Jeltz 1986 0.320 96 0.262 66 1.45
Walt Weiss 1993 0.367 109 0.308 75 1.45
John Cangelosi 1986 0.349 106 0.299 73 1.45