Monday, June 17, 2019

Mickey Mantle's Rapid Speed Decline

Click here to see his advanced batting stats from Baseball Reference. I looked at his XBT%.

That is the percentage of times a runner advances more than one base on a single and more than two on a double. This chart shows how much it fell off for Mantle when he turned 33. Maybe he feared getting hurt running the bases and slowed down to avoid sliding.



Here is how he compares to similar players: Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson, Al Kaline and Carl Yastrzemski.


Age
Mantle
Mays
Aaron
Robinson
Kaline
Yaz
18




38%

19
64%



50%

20
65%
53%
51%
56%
65%

21
58%
70%
47%
62%
52%
62%
22
61%

53%
63%
71%
54%
23
64%
73%
51%
67%
73%
36%
24
60%
67%
57%
53%
65%
48%
25
55%
67%
60%
57%
67%
52%
26
53%
69%
72%
63%
64%
43%
27
56%
64%
54%
57%
54%
44%
28
54%
67%
51%
66%
66%
41%
29
56%
72%
60%
60%
51%
46%
30
57%
67%
64%
51%
51%
39%
31
65%
59%
59%
44%
48%
56%
32
56%
74%
50%
62%
70%
47%
33
31%
63%
55%
58%
58%
45%
34
22%
57%
54%
50%
66%
45%
35
36%
65%
59%
52%
49%
53%
36
28%
67%
39%
41%
40%
38%
37

54%
34%
43%
43%
54%
38

48%
33%
49%
55%
40%
39

74%
37%
43%
42%
36%
40

49%
29%
17%

49%
41

43%
36%


33%
42

48%
23%


40%
43





17%

This chart shows the trend over time for all these players. It seems that none of them had as early and dramatic a decline as Mantle.



Mantle's GIDP% started an upward trend at age 30 in 1962. That chart is next. Following that is the trend for strikeout% (I removed sacrifice hits and IBBs from PAs). At age 32 his SO% started coming back up, so we would expect him to have a lower GIDP%, everything else being equal. Now it (GIDP%) did come back down his last three seasons after peaking but it was still high compared to earlier in his career.