Tuesday, January 3, 2023

Top 15 in WPA in All-Star games for each league from 1950-82

WPA is win probability added. Every plate appearance changes the chance the batting team will win (up or down) based on the historical record. This Win Expectancy Finder can give you an idea of how it works. 

For example, if the game is tied and the home team is batting in the bottom of the 5th inning with no outs and no one on base, they have a 59.07% chance of winning (that is, the home team won 59.07% of all games from the historical period that had that exact situation).

If the leadoff man hits a HR, their chance of winning goes up to 74.41%. The batter would get a .1534 WPA for that event since .7441 - .5907 = .1534.

Using Stathead, I did the following search in the Game Finder function: "For single games, from 1950 to 1982, requiring Win Probability Added for Offensive Player >= -5, sorted by descending Win Probability Added for Offensive Player." (I did not  have to go that low since the lowest ended up -0.32). There is an option to look at only All-Star games.

So each player has a line in the search for their WPA (from all their PAs) in a given game. Then I used the subtotal function to sum the total WPA from all the All-Star games for each player. The table below has the top 20 for the AL.

Player AL

Total WPA

Al Kaline

0.902

Nellie Fox

0.620

Cookie Rojas

0.537

Brooks Robinson

0.536

Carl Yastrzemski

0.476

Al Rosen

0.408

Gus Triandos

0.362

Fred Lynn

0.361

Harmon Killebrew

0.315

Larry Doby

0.293

Rocky Colavito

0.293

Ferris Fain

0.220

Bobby Avila

0.213

Darrell Porter

0.212

Rickey Henderson

0.171

Gil McDougald

0.167

Ken McBride

0.136

Pete Runnels

0.136

Thurman Munson

0.123

Eddie Robinson

0.120

Now the NL top 20.

Player NL

Total WPA

Willie Mays

1.219

Steve Garvey

0.857

Gus Bell

0.778

Mike Schmidt

0.628

Lee Mazzilli

0.550

Henry Aaron

0.476

Joe Morgan

0.417

Johnny Callison

0.386

Gary Carter

0.362

Stan Musial

0.348

Enos Slaughter

0.325

Manny Sanguillén

0.313

Ralph Kiner

0.311

Ted Kluszewski

0.296

George Foster

0.295

Johnny Bench

0.295

Dick Groat

0.269

Tim McCarver

0.264

Jim Wynn

0.262

Jim Hickman

0.253

Now the top 40 of the two leagues combined

Player

Toptal WPA

League

Willie Mays

1.219

NL

Al Kaline

0.902

AL

Steve Garvey

0.857

NL

Gus Bell

0.778

NL

Mike Schmidt

0.628

NL

Nellie Fox

0.620

AL

Lee Mazzilli

0.550

NL

Cookie Rojas

0.537

AL

Brooks Robinson

0.536

AL

Henry Aaron

0.476

NL

Carl Yastrzemski

0.476

AL

Joe Morgan

0.417

NL

Al Rosen

0.408

AL

Johnny Callison

0.386

NL

Gary Carter

0.362

NL

Gus Triandos

0.362

AL

Fred Lynn

0.361

AL

Stan Musial

0.348

NL

Enos Slaughter

0.325

NL

Harmon Killebrew

0.315

AL

Manny Sanguillén

0.313

NL

Ralph Kiner

0.311

NL

Ted Kluszewski

0.296

NL

George Foster

0.295

NL

Johnny Bench

0.295

NL

Larry Doby

0.293

AL

Rocky Colavito

0.293

AL

Dick Groat

0.269

NL

Tim McCarver

0.264

NL

Jim Wynn

0.262

NL

Jim Hickman

0.253

NL

Richie Ashburn

0.248

NL

Dave Concepción

0.246

NL

Ferris Fain

0.220

AL

Bill White

0.214

NL

George Hendrick

0.213

NL

Bobby Avila

0.213

AL

Darrell Porter

0.212

AL

Tony Pérez

0.209

NL

Maury Wills

0.201

NL

No comments: