Monday, January 6, 2014

Was Willie Mays The Most Underrated Player In History? Or Was It Wade Boggs? Is Albert Pujols The Most Overrated? (Revised)

Click here to see the original post from a few days ago. The idea was to see the relationship between MVP shares and WAR.

If you read that, you will see that the regression line estimate was a 2nd degree polynomial. But to calculate the predicted MVP shares, I used the equation that appears when I ask Excel to graph it. That equation only goes to a few decimal places. In this case, it matters because the values of the WAR variable can be very large.

So I had Excel do the line estimate and I had the coefficient values go out several more decimal places. The new equation is

MVPShares = 0.000256845*WARSquared + 0.010979681*WAR - 0.11979

Squaring Willie Mays' WAR gives us about 24,000. Now .003*24,304.81 = 7.291. But if I have

0.000256845*24,304.81 = 6.24

That alone lowers May's predicted MVP shares about 1 (again, using the regression estimate). Mays actually slips from the most underrated player to the second most underrated player. Lou Whitaker, who did very poorly in the Hall of Fame vote (unjustly so), is now number 1.

Click here to see the revised list. It does not look like players moved very much. Pujols was still the most overrated by this measure.

The new equation for the case where I used only each player's seven best seasons of WAR is

MVPShares = 0.001807713*WAR7Squared - 0.041037828*WAR7 + 0.268264829

The original post had a + in front of the 2nd coefficient. It should have been minus and has been corrected. Wade Boggs was still the most underrated here and Pujols was still the most overrated.

Click here to see the revised results.


Anonymous said...

Not surprising that 3 of the top 16 were on the 1984 Tigers - a great team with no players in the Hall of Fame.

Cyril Morong said...

Thanks for dropping by and commenting. It would be interesting to see what the correlation is between Hall of Fame Voting and MVP voting. Sometimes players don't get alot of MVP voting but they easily make it into the Hall like Boggs and Ozzie Smith