RSAA means "runs saved above average." It comes from Lee Sinins' Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. The numbers are park adjusted. So Grove has a big lead here, both in total and per 9 IP. I will come back to these numbers later when I plug them into the Pythagorean formula.
Grove was 60% better than average at preventing HRs (that is what the 160 means). He gave up 49 HRs while the average pitcher would have allowed 78 (100*(78/49) is about 160). This gives him a pretty big edge over Koufax. But they are not park adjusted. If they were, Grove would have an even bigger edge. Here are the HR park factors for the Philadelphia A's from 1928-32 from the STATS, Inc. All-Time Baseball Sourcebook: 126, 165, 153, 104, 199 (the 126 means that Shibe gave up 26% more HRs than the average park). Now Shibe Park may have had some asymmetries, so that lefties hit alot more HRs. With Grove more likely to face righties (being a lefty himself), it is possible the park did not hurt him as much as these factors suggest. But A's righties Foxx, Miller and Dykes generally had much higher slugging percentages at home than on the road (from Retrosheet). So my guess is that Grove certainly was not aided by his park in preventing HRs.
Koufax allowed 89 HRs while the league average was 124 and had the following HR park factors in his years: 50, 63, 62, 49, 70 (meaning Dodger Stadium allowed fewer HRs than average). So he was helped quite a bit yet Grove still has the big edge here. He allowed 89 HRs while the league average was 124.
Relative SO/BB is each pitcher's strikeout-to-walk ratio divided by the league average. Grove had a 2.67 strikeout-to-walk ratio while the league average was 0.95. The 2.67/0.95 is multiplied by 100 to get 281. That beats the 225 of Koufax or 100*(4.57/2.03).
The ERA+ comes from Baseball Reference. It is ERA relative to the league average but also adjusted for park effects. Grove only has a slight edge here.
WAR comes from Baseball Reference (and they get it from Sean Smith at Baseball Projections). It is "Wins Above Replacement for Pitchers. A single number that presents the number of wins the player added to the team above what a replacement player (think AAA or AAAA) would add. This value includes defensive support and includes additional value for high leverage situations."
It is not clear to me how Koufax beats Grove here. Grove has alot more RAR or "runs above replacement." It might have something to do with the leverage adjustments. None are made for Grove since the play-by-play data has not been posted at Retrosheet. The WAR and RAR numbers imply that for Grove's years, it took 11 extra runs to win a game (441/40.1 = 11) and only 8.26 for Koufax (347/42).
Baseball Projections says that it normally takes about 10 extra runs to get a win. I wonder if they are using the formula which says it takes 10 times the square root of the number of runs scored per inning by both teams. For Grove's years I calculated that to be 10.7 and for Koufax got 9.54. That would give Grove a WAR of 41.21 (441/10.7) and Koufax 36.37 (347/9.54).
Pitching Runs is "Adjusted Pitching Runs." It comes from Baseball Reference. It is "A set of formulas developed by Gary Gillette, Pete Palmer and others that estimates a pitcher’s total contributions to a team’s runs total via linear weights." Lee Sinins told me it might also be based on decisions, but I am not really sure. Anyway, Grove has a big lead here, too.
Now to come back to RSAA and try to calculate the Pythagorean pct for each guy using RSAA per 9 IP. The AL of 1928-32 averaged 5.12 runs per game (yearly averages weighted by Grove's IP) and 5.12 - 1.98 = 3.14. So if Grove allows 3.14 while his team scored 5.12, he would have a winning pct of .727. Koufax would allow 2.78 while his team would score 4.05 runs per game. That gives him a pct of .679.
One thing I have not mentioned yet or tried to take into account is integration. Last January, I compared Grove's career to Randy Johnson's. See How Might Integration Have Affected The Lefty Grove/Randy Johnson Debate? I tried to estimate how much better the hitters would have been during Grove's time if the percentage of players who were non-white was about the same as during Johnson's. I also tried to adjust for the number of non-white pitchers and non-white fielders. I came up with Grove's ERA going up about 10%. What if I did that here?
Then Grove would allow 3.45 runs per game and his pct would fall to .688. That is still higher than Koufax.
But if we use the adjusted pitching runs, Grove allows 3.32 runs per game (5.12 - 1.8). He would have a pct of .704. Koufax would allow 2.63 runs per game (4.05 - 1.42). He would have a pct of .703. That would make the two about even. Grove would get the edge due to more IP.
But if we raise Grove's runs per game by 10%, to 3.65, his pct would be only .663. That would put Koufax ahead.
Finally, if we knock down Grove's ERA+ from Baseball Reference of 172 by 10%, he would be at 155, below Koufax's 167. The 10% adjustment for integration is just an estimate. It is the same one I used when comparing Grove to Johnson. The % of players and pitchers who were non-whites during Koufax's time was probably lower than during Johnson's time. So adding 10% to Grove's ERA is probably too much. I don't think I know the right adjustment to make. But this gives us some idea of what the effect of integration might be.
If I lowered Grove's strikeouts per 9 IP by 10% from 5.91 to 5.32 and raised his walks per 9 IP from 2.21 to 2.43, his new strikeout-to-walk ratio would be 2.19. That divided by 0.95 would be 2.30. So his relative SO/BB would be 230, still higher than Koufax's 225.
If I raised Grove's HRs by 10%, he would have allowed 54 HRs. Then 78/54 = 1.45. That times 100 is 145. That is still higher than Koufax's relative HR rate of 139.
11 comments:
Well and good all this math might be let's talk facts for a five year span there has never been anyone better than Sandy Koufax, Grove was great and one hell of a competitor of this thete can be no doubt, but how can anyone compare Grove ( 0 nohitters 0 petfect games no 300 strikeout seasons and lastly no Major League Triple Crowns) if more needs to be said try 4 world championships oh by the way Sandy's election to the Baseball HOF pct was 92 plus compared to Groves 74 pct. Now don't get me wrong I think the world of Robert Grove but to say without laughing that he or any lefthander is better than Koufax is ridiculous at best and out an out fanasty otherwise...
You're the one in fantasy land. You don't think stats should be adjusted for the league average or for park effects.
The triple crowns, no hitters, etc by themselves are not the issue. It is overall effectiveness as a pitcher. Besides, Grove did win the major league triple crown in 1930 and 1931(if you mean wins, ERA and strikeouts).
Grove had a 2.06 ERA in a league that had an ERA of 5.14 in 1931. He beat the league by 3.08. Koufax's best difference was 1.88 (ERA 1.73 league ERA 3.61) in 1966. And Koufax had a good pitcher's park and Grove had a good hitter's park.
So what if there are no 300 K seasons? Koufax did not do that until the expanded the strike zone and in Grove's day there were not so many free swingers and players did anything they could to make contact with two strikes. And again. Grove's SO/BB ratio, adjusted to the league average, was better than Koufax's.
Grove pitched on two world champions by the way. But again, that has more to do with the team. It is only a fantasy that one player determines everything.
Sportwsriters are fallible. So the Hall of Fame voting is not that relevant
You have to remember that in 1969, MLB put together an all century team because baseball was 100 years old that year. Sandy Koufax was freshly retired from baseball and still fresh in people's minds. Grove was voted the best lefthander of all time and the best living lefthander. That is because people who saw him pitch, like my father who attended the opener at Cleveland Municipal Stadium where Grove bested Mel Harder 1-0, were still alive. Dad said Grove was best and that seemed to be the consensus among people who had seen both of them.
Remember, Grove had another peak between 1935-39 where he had a 173 ERA+ Granted, he was older and had learned to pitch. He was only 83-41, but the efficiency was impeccable. If you take away Grove's rookie year, the disaster of 1934 when he should not have pitched and his last two years when he was the oldest pitcher in baseball chasing 300 wins(at least the American League), he was 268-108 ERA 2.75 ERA+ 164 in 3347 innings. It really is not close for career, although Koufax's peak was not that far off Lefty's.
Thanks for reading and commenting. Certainly, given that Grove had a second peak, his overall career value would be higher than Koufax's.
Cyril, thank you for your in depth look at Lefty v Sandy. I really like both of them, and my Baseball Reference page defaults to Sandy Koufax. I think that the two of them, along with Randy Johnson and Clayton Kershaw are the four best lefties ever. My bias is more towards efficiency, so you have to take everything I say with a grain of salt which is why Spahn and Carlton trail a bit with me.
Anyway, I just looked at the page, and saw that you commented. I liked the fact that ten years lapsed since you wrote the piece, and people are still interested.
Your father saw Lefty Grove pitch😲😲
Yep, Dad was born on March 6 1914. Lefty was born on March 6, 1900. My dad went to the opening of Municipal Stadium in Cleveland in 1932. Lefty beat Mel Harder, the great Indians right-hander 1-0. Dad was the same age when Lefty Grove pitched as I was pretty much when I saw Koufax pitch. I frankly did not think anybody could be better than Koufax. BUT Gove was. Consider this: Grove was 235-82 in 11 years from 1928-39 with a WAR of 95.7. He had a 168+ ERA for those years while pitching 2826.2 innings. The only better run in MLB history was by Walter Johnson when he had a 108 WAR for ten years with a 183 ERA+. He and Lefty were named right and left handed pitchers of the century in 1969.In 2002 Bill James ranked him second behind Johnson. And I had a terrific system if I don't say so myself that ranked Johnson and Grove 1 and 2 as well. Roger Clemens has challenged them, but his peak was not as good. In a recent analysis I did, his relatively modest peak cost him number one ranking, and he wound up tied for third with Pedro Martinez; Randy Johnson fished fifth. So the starting five was book-ended by guys named Johnson.
I just think nobody had a more impactful pitching career for 5 year time span than Sandy Koufax. Because he had to face more great hitters then Lefty Grove or Walter Johnson. He had the face Willie Mays, hip / 300 average for his career. And we know we hit over 500 career home runs. Hammerin Hank Aaron, 300 average lifetime hitter and we also know he hit over 500 career home runs. He had to face sweet swinging Ernie Banks. Another 500 + career home run hitter. He had to face the great hitting froze basement to stretch Willie McCovey. He had to face the great Roberto Clemente, dad multiple batting titles and and is in the 3000 hit Club. I could go on and on for Sandy Koufax,he had to face better hitters,and that's by average and power than Lefty Grove, Walter Johnson, or any of those baseball pitchers that came before him. And anyone else for that matter
I think you are wrong. Lefty Grove had to face Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Charlie Gehringer, Hank Greeberg, Hal Trotsky, Earl Averill and many others. Also, the League ERA for the American League was about 4.50 for Grove's career. For Koufax career it was about a run lower per game. Also Grove pitched in a hitter's park his entire career, in Philadelphia and Boston and in an eight team league; Koufax pitched in the most pitcher friendly park in baseball in the most pitcher friendly era in modern National League history with two new expansion teams to feast upon. I think win and lost percentage is underrated as a stat. Grove was 103-23 in his four year peak (1928-31) while Koufax was 97-27 (1963-66). Koufax had the 14th best five year peak of all time, while Grove had the 4th best according a measurement of WAR per five years and WAR per 250 innings for that period
There is one major flaw with the approach you're taking. The theory behind adjusting for league averages comes from the need to adjust for the fact that hitting talent varies from year to year, so if you don't control for that, it's difficult to compare apples to apples. So you adjust their stats by league average and wash your hands, thinking you've solved the problem. But all you've done is trade one form of bias for another. You've mathematically made the assumption that hitting talent varies but pitching talent remains constant. When in actuality, it is much more plausible that the hitting talent was actually more consistent from year to year but that the median and/or replacement level of pitching in Grove's day was simply of a much lower caliber than it was in Koufax's day. Grove only outshines Koufax if you account for the fact that his peers were simply not very good. Absent that adjustment, it's really not even a close argument. He was not better than Koufax in the sense that he had better stuff. He was only better in relation to his peers, who simply weren't very good. I agree that park factors matter, particularly with respect to HRs, but they don't matter for K/BB. And the idea that Grove should somehow get approximately double the credit for striking people out simply because his peers weren't capable is a position you should probably reevaluate.
The problem is that you cannot make the statement that pitcher's in Koufax is era were better because you cannot prove it. Baseball is a very old game, and the game matured far earlier than say basketball or football. Baseball was payed professionally for 25 years before basketball was even invented. And we know Bob Feller probably threw the ball harder than anybody who was ever tested (twice at 107 mph). And Charlie Gehringer and several others said Grove threw harder than Feller. It is a stretch to say that Koufax is in Grove's league. I believe Grove was a higher caliber pitcher.
How can all the great players of the 20's and 30's on offense lead all the player lists on talent, yet the pitchers are relegated to second class status. It does not make sense. During his first peak (1929-33) Grove had a 46 WAR and a 8.09 WAR/250; During Koufax peak he had a WAR of 40.8 and a WAR/250 of 7.41. In Grove's second peak (1935-39) he had a WAR of 42.6 and a WAR/250 of 9.32; in Koufax's second peak (oh yeah there was not one, just 7 years where he had a WAR of 12.3 with a WAR/250 in 947.1 innings of 3.25, not much of a comparison.
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