Bryce Harper Has Historic First Half In OPS

Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, I found the top 65 first halfs in sOPS+ (150+ PAs). Harper has 226 and is ranked 32nd. As far as I can tell, that is adjusted for the league average and park effects. It seems like when it adjusts for the league average it includes pitcher's hitting. If you look at the NL leaders this year, Harper has a 219 OPS+. Maybe that does not include pitcher's hitting.

The only players to ever have a better first half than Harper are Ruth, Bonds, TWilliams, Gehrig, Mantle, Frank Thomas, Foxx, Cobb, Hornsby, McGwire, Musial, McCovey, and Bautista.

In general, this is an incredible list to be in the middle of, especially at age 22. In fact, the only better first half at age 22 or younger is TWilliams in 1941, 232. The next highest is Bernie Carbo in 1970 with an even 200.

So here are the rankings

Rk	Player	Year	sOPS+		Rk	Player	Year	sOPS+
1	Babe Ruth	1920	278		34	Ted Williams	1948	225
2	Barry Bonds	2004	274		35	Frank Robinson	1967	225
3	Barry Bonds	2002	258		36	Babe Ruth	1928	224
4	Babe Ruth	1921	252		37	Mel Ott	1944	223
5	Lou Gehrig	1927	245		38	Larry Walker	1997	223
6	Ted Williams	1946	244		39	Gavvy Cravath	1919	221
7	Babe Ruth	1924	243		40	Babe Ruth	1919	221
8	Babe Ruth	1926	242		41	Tris Speaker	1916	220
9	Mickey Mantle	1957	241		42	Ted Williams	1947	220
10	Frank Thomas	1994	238		43	Reggie Jackson	1969	219
11	Barry Bonds	2001	238		44	Barry Bonds	2003	218
12	Babe Ruth	1918	238		45	Tommy Holmes	1945	218
13	Babe Ruth	1930	238		46	George Brett	1983	218
14	Mickey Mantle	1962	237		47	Ted Williams	1954	217
15	Babe Ruth	1923	237		48	Joe DiMaggio	1939	217
16	Jimmie Foxx	1933	235		49	John Olerud	1993	215
17	Ted Williams	1960	234		50	Willie Stargell	1971	215
18	Ty Cobb	1917	233		51	Joe Medwick	1937	215
19	Jimmie Foxx	1932	232		52	Bob Allison	1964	214
20	Ted Williams	1941	232		53	Jimmie Foxx	1938	213
21	Rogers Hornsby	1925	231		54	Lou Gehrig	1936	213
22	Babe Ruth	1931	231		55	Miguel Cabrera	2013	213
23	Mark McGwire	1996	230		56	Barry Bonds	1993	213
24	Ted Williams	1942	229		57	Rogers Hornsby	1922	213
25	Babe Ruth	1927	229		58	Norm Cash	1961	212
26	Stan Musial	1948	228		59	Benny Kauff	1914	212
27	Willie McCovey	1969	228		60	Phil Weintraub	1944	212
28	Rogers Hornsby	1928	228		61	Charlie Keller	1946	212
29	Mark McGwire	1998	227		62	Dick Allen	1966	211
30	Ty Cobb	1915	226		63	Albert Pujols	2009	211
31	Jose Bautista	2011	226		64	Derrek Lee	2005	211
32	Bryce Harper	2015	226		65	Duke Snider	1954	211
33	Mickey Mantle	1956	226

This next table shows the leaders in SLG in the first half with 150+ PAs for guys 24 and under. I think the first 3 guys are 24 and the next two 23. Harper is 6th. Again, an incredible list to be on.

Rk	Player	Year	SLG
1	Lou Gehrig	1927	0.830
2	Jimmie Foxx	1932	0.769
3	Mickey Mantle	1956	0.749
4	Reggie Jackson	1969	0.716
5	Willie Mays	1954	0.710
6	Bryce Harper	2015	0.704
7	Ken Griffey	1994	0.697
8	Joe DiMaggio	1939	0.695
9	Mark McGwire	1987	0.692
10	Albert Pujols	2003	0.690
11	Dick Allen	1966	0.687
12	Ted Williams	1941	0.684
13	Jimmie Foxx	1929	0.675
14	John Olerud	1993	0.671
15	Hank Greenberg	1935	0.671
16	Jimmie Foxx	1928	0.671
17	Babe Ruth	1918	0.671
18	Mel Ott	1929	0.669

Now for guys 22 and under.

Rk	Player	Year	SLG
1	Bryce Harper	2015	0.704
2	Ted Williams	1941	0.684
3	Jimmie Foxx	1929	0.675
4	Jimmie Foxx	1928	0.671
5	Mel Ott	1929	0.669
6	Joe DiMaggio	1937	0.661
7	Jimmie Foxx	1930	0.652
8	Eddie Mathews	1953	0.644
9	Joe DiMaggio	1936	0.627
10	Willie Horton	1965	0.621
11	Mel Ott	1930	0.621

Triple Threat Triple Crowns

Suppose that we looked for league leaders in stats that might represent three different skills:

Speed (triples, SBs, SB%)

Power (SLG, ISO, HRs, TBs, extra-base hits)

Getting on base (OBP, times on base)

What players have led their league in at least one stat from each category? Looking over league leaders lists, I came up with 11 different players who have done it at least once. I list them, showing the year or years they did it, which stats they did it in and the amount or rate for each one. Stats from Baseball Reference and the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. SB% starts with 1951 at Baseball Reference.

If you can think of any other player who might qualify, please let me know.

Has Kershaw Had Some Bad Luck This Year?

He is having a hard time making the All-Star team and his ERA this year is 3.08 (not bad but it was under 2.00 in each of the last 2 years). His record is just 5-6. He does lead the NL with 147 strikeouts (giving him a slight chance to be the first to reach 300 since 2002-Chris Sale of the White Sox has 147, too, in one less start, 17-16). All stats from Baseball Reference.

He is 2nd in fielding independent ERA (FIP) with 2.54. Scherzer leads with 1.93. Kershaw's ERA+ is a good, but unspectacular, 120 (10th place is 135). The last two years it was 194 and 201.

(One thing from Fangraphs: Kershaw trails only Scherzer in FIP-, which is FIP ERA adjusted for park effects. Click here to see the rankings.)

The bad luck might be his relatively high average allowed with runners in scoring position. The table below shows his stats this year with RISP, no runners on and with runners on. The table after that shows his career stats.

As you can see, he normally does not get hit relatively hard with RISP. Usually, his average with RISP is less than with none on. But this year it is .064 higher.

2015	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.278	0.329	0.354	0.684
None on	0.214	0.269	0.342	0.611
Men On	0.219	0.267	0.335	0.602
Career	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.198	0.283	0.315	0.598
None on	0.211	0.268	0.306	0.575
Men On	0.206	0.280	0.318	0.598

Now he has only had 79 ABs with RISP. But if his RISP AVG were .214 instead of .278, it would be 5 fewer hits. If that meant 5 fewer runs, his ERA falls to 2.68. If it were, say, 7 runs, it would be 2.53.

On the other hand, his SLG allowed with none on is a bit higher than with runners on this year while for his career it is the opposite. If he allowed a .342 SLG with runners on, it would only add 1.085 total bases (over 155 ABs). That's like one more double. Probably a much smaller effect on ERA than the AVG with RISP issue.

Team OPS Differentials

We are just about at the half way point. In the table below the next to last column, Pred Pct, is based on the equation of

Pct = 1.326*OPSDIFF + .5

That came from a regression of all teams from 2010-14. OPSA it the OPS allowed by the team's pitchers. The teams are ranked by OPSDIFF and the last column is the difference between their actual Pct and their Pred Pct. The 25th highest OPSDIFF since 1914 is .109, so the Dodgers are not too far behind that. The Phillies, with -.125, would have the 20th worst ever.

TEAM	Pct	OPS	OPSA	OPSDIFF	Pred Pct	Diff
LA Dodgers	0.561	0.762	0.659	0.103	0.637	-0.076
Houston	0.578	0.735	0.671	0.064	0.585	-0.007
St. Louis	0.650	0.719	0.656	0.063	0.584	0.066
Oakland	0.452	0.719	0.658	0.061	0.581	-0.128
Pittsburgh	0.575	0.699	0.650	0.049	0.565	0.010
Toronto	0.506	0.780	0.732	0.048	0.564	-0.058
Washington	0.556	0.729	0.683	0.046	0.561	-0.005
Kansas City	0.577	0.719	0.679	0.040	0.553	0.024
NY Yankees	0.543	0.751	0.718	0.033	0.544	-0.001
San Francisco	0.512	0.734	0.710	0.024	0.532	-0.020
Chicago Cubs	0.544	0.698	0.676	0.022	0.529	0.015
LA Angels	0.531	0.696	0.675	0.021	0.528	0.003
Baltimore	0.519	0.733	0.713	0.020	0.527	-0.008
Tampa Bay	0.506	0.681	0.665	0.016	0.521	-0.015
Detroit	0.513	0.760	0.747	0.013	0.517	-0.005
Cleveland	0.475	0.711	0.704	0.007	0.509	-0.034
Cincinnati	0.456	0.719	0.717	0.002	0.503	-0.047
Miami	0.427	0.686	0.703	-0.017	0.477	-0.051
Arizona	0.494	0.726	0.743	-0.017	0.477	0.016
Seattle	0.457	0.666	0.688	-0.022	0.471	-0.014
NY Mets	0.500	0.652	0.674	-0.022	0.471	0.029
Boston	0.458	0.721	0.746	-0.025	0.467	-0.009
Texas	0.500	0.712	0.738	-0.026	0.466	0.034
Minnesota	0.531	0.693	0.738	-0.045	0.440	0.091
Atlanta	0.494	0.684	0.732	-0.048	0.436	0.057
Milwaukee	0.422	0.692	0.750	-0.058	0.423	-0.001
Colorado	0.420	0.740	0.800	-0.060	0.420	-0.001
San Diego	0.470	0.669	0.742	-0.073	0.403	0.067
Chicago Sox	0.462	0.655	0.743	-0.088	0.383	0.078
Philadelphia	0.325	0.658	0.783	-0.125	0.334	-0.009

Click here to see Fangraphs site which shows winning percentage based on BaseRuns. The correlation between the win pct predicted by the OPS differential and the win pct predicted by BaseRuns is .99

What If The Triple Crown Were HRs, RBIs And Hits?

Some players would be added to the list and others would drop off. First, here are the guys who led in HRs, RBIs and AVG and also led in hits:

Player	Year	HR	RBI	AVG	Hits
Nap Lajoie	1901	14	125	0.426	232
Ty Cobb	1909	9	107	0.377	216
Heinie Zimmerman	1912	14	104	0.372	207
Rogers Hornsby	1922	42	152	0.401	250
Chuck Klein	1933	28	120	0.368	223
Joe Medwick	1937	31	154	0.374	237
Carl Yastrzemski	1967	44	121	0.326	189

Now the guys who led in HRs, RBIs and hits but not AVG. I also list their average, where it ranked and the average of the guy who led the league. For example, Cravath was 2nd in AVG in the NL in 1913. The leader had .350

Player	Year	HR	RBI	Hits	AVG, Rk.	Leader
Gavvy Cravath	1913	19	128	179	0.341, 2	0.350
Lou Gehrig	1931	46	185	211	0.341, 5	0.390
Jim Rice	1978	46	139	213	0.315, 3	0.333
Dante Bichette	1995	40	128	197	0.340, 3	0.368

Now the guys who did win the real triple crown but failed to lead the league in hits. I also list their hit total, where it ranked and the hit total of the guy who led the league.

Player	Year	HR	RBI	AVG	Hits, Rk.	Leader
Rogers Hornsby	1925	39	143	0.403	203, 4	227
Jimmie Foxx	1933	48	163	0.356	204, 2	221
Lou Gehrig	1934	49	166	0.363	210, 2	214
Ted Williams	1942	36	137	0.356	186, 3	205
Ted Williams	1947	32	114	0.343	181, 3	204
Mickey Mantle	1956	52	130	0.353	188, 4	196
Frank Robinson	1966	49	122	0.316	182, 2	191
Miguel Cabrera	2012	44	139	0.330	205, 2	216