Thursday, July 5, 2018

Mariners specialize in high leverage situations

Now you might think it is just a good bullpen. But they hit much better in high leverage situations, too. Overall, the Mariners have an OPS of .742 and have allowed .709. That .033 differential is modest. Using my regression generated formula of

Pct = .5 + 1.3*OPSDIFF

That gives them about a .543 pct when it is actually .632. So they have won about 8 more games than expected (they are now 55-32).

Here is what their hitters are doing. Data from Baseball Reference.

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
High Leverage 0.298 0.357 0.505 0.862
Medium Leverage 0.268 0.330 0.414 0.744
Low Leverage 0.235 0.296 0.388 0.683

Now what the pitchers allow.

Split BA OBP SLG OPS
High Leverage 0.250 0.313 0.361 0.674
Medium Leverage 0.241 0.298 0.407 0.705
Low Leverage 0.246 0.306 0.426 0.731

Now the OPS differentials. So they play like the 1927 Yankees in High Leverage situations (the Yanks that year had an overall differential of .196).


Split OPS OPS Diff
High Leverage 0.862 0.674 0.188
Medium Leverage 0.744 0.705 0.039
Low Leverage 0.683 0.731 -0.048

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