Bryce Harper Had An Historically Large Decline In OPS+ This Year

Below is a post from July 15. Not sure why I have an OPS+ of 195 for Harper in 2015 because now Baseball Reference shows him with 198 (maybe park effects changed with this year's data included). His OPS+ this year ended up being 116 (it was 134 on July 15, so he did not do very well since then). That means he dropped 82 point in OPS+. So that is the biggest decline since 1900 for a player 23 or younger who had a 170 OPS+ or higher with 400+ PAs. The next largest decline is 64 points, belonging to Boog Powell of 1964-65.

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Here is the July 15th post:

Last year, at age 22, Bryce Harper had an OPS+ of 195. The only player to ever have a higher OPS+ at age 22 or younger with 400+ PAs was Ted Williams who had 235 in 1941, the year he batted .406.

But so far this year, Harper's OPS+ is just 134, a drop of 61. To see how this ranks historically, I used the Baseball Reference Play Index to call up all the seasons since 1900 when a player 23 or younger had an OPS+ of at least 170 (I first tried a cutoff of 180 and using players 22 or younger, but that was a short list). Again, a minimum of 400 PAs was used.

Then I found their OPS+ the next year and ranked them by how much their OPS+ changed, with the biggest losers listed first. That is all in the table below. Harper does not have the biggest decline ever, but he is close.

Player	OPS+	Year	Age	Next Yr.	Change
Boog Powell	176	1964	22	112	-64
Reggie Jackson	189	1969	23	127	-62
Bryce Harper	195	2015	22	134	-61
Arky Vaughan	190	1935	23	148	-42
Mel Ott	174	1932	23	138	-36
Eddie Mathews	170	1955	23	143	-27
Eddie Collins	171	1909	22	152	-19
Ted Williams	235	1941	22	216	-19
Albert Pujols	187	2003	23	173	-14
Jimmie Foxx	173	1929	21	161	-12
Mike Trout	179	2013	21	168	-11
Ty Cobb	206	1910	23	196	-10
Mike Trout	176	2015	23	169	-7
Frank Thomas	180	1991	23	174	-6
Stan Musial	177	1943	22	174	-3
Eddie Mathews	172	1954	22	170	-2
Shoeless Joe Jackson	193	1911	23	192	-1
Ted Williams*	216	1942	23	215	-1
Willie Mays	175	1954	23	174	-1
Ken Griffey	171	1993	23	171	0
Eddie Mathews	171	1953	21	172	1
Stan Musial*	174	1944	23	183	9
Ty Cobb	193	1909	22	206	13
Mickey Mantle	180	1955	23	210	30

*The next year for Williams and Musial in these cases was actually after they returned from military duty. Williams had three years in between and Musial had one.

There are 18 players on this list. 13 are in the Hall of Fame. Those not in the Hall are Albert Pujols, Harper, Mike Trout, Boog Powell and Joe Jackson. Trout and Pujols both have good chances to make it. Jackson might be in if not for the 1919 World Series scandal.

Boog Powell is probably not Hall worthy but he still hit over 300 career HRs and won an MVP award later in his career. He had a couple of seasons with an OPS+ in the 160s and two more in the 150s. He had a total of six seasons in the top 10 in OPS+, including the 176 at age 22. So a good career.

Powell, along with Reggie Jackson, are the only two guys here to see a drop off of 60 or more in OPS+. Jackson is in the Hall and, as seen above, Powell had a pretty good career. So even with the big decline so far this year, Harper's future still looks pretty good.