Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Players With An OPS+ Of 150 Or Higher At Each Of The Following Ages: 20, 21, 22, 23, 24

From the Baseball Reference Play Index. Just Cobb and Trout


Player OPS+ Year Age
Ty Cobb 167 1907 20
Ty Cobb 169 1908 21
Ty Cobb 193 1909 22
Ty Cobb 206 1910 23
Ty Cobb 196 1911 24
Mike Trout 168 2012 20
Mike Trout 179 2013 21
Mike Trout 168 2014 22
Mike Trout 176 2015 23
Mike Trout 177 2016 24

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Seasons When Two Players Under Age 25 Had 9+ WAR

Data from the Baseball Reference Play Index. This has only happened 7 times, including 2015 & 2016 (an only once between 1912 and 2014 with Mays and Mantle in 1955). If Betts can make it to 10, then we would have only the second time 2 guys made it that high. That won't be easy and, of course, the season is longer than it used to be, so maybe we should use 9.5 for 154 game seasons. That would still be rare.


Player WAR Year Age
Ty Cobb 9.8 1909 22
Eddie Collins 9.7 1909 22
Ty Cobb 10.5 1910 23
Eddie Collins 10.5 1910 23
Ty Cobb 10.7 1911 24
Shoeless Joe Jackson 9.2 1911 23
Tris Speaker 10.1 1912 24
Shoeless Joe Jackson 9.6 1912 24
Mickey Mantle 9.5 1955 23
Willie Mays 9 1955 24
Bryce Harper 9.9 2015 22
Mike Trout 9.4 2015 23
Mike Trout 10.3 2016 24
Mookie Betts 9.5 2016 23

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Cubs have allowed an historically low BAbip

Data from the Baseball Reference Play Index. Here are the lowest 25 since 1913


Team Year BAbip
CLE 1968 0.244
BAL 1968 0.245
BAL 1969 0.246
BRO 1941 0.249
BAL 1972 0.249
DET 1981 0.249
CHW 1967 0.249
DET 1968 0.250
CLE 1954 0.250
LAD 1975 0.250
NYY 1955 0.251
BRO 1942 0.251
CHW 1966 0.252
CHW 1964 0.252
OAK 1972 0.252
STL 1942 0.252
NYY 1960 0.253
CIN 1942 0.253
MIN 1965 0.254
CIN 1944 0.254
CHC 2016 0.254
CAL 1968 0.254
BAL 1961 0.254
OAK 1970 0.255
BOS 1917 0.255

They are the only team in the top 25 since 1981 (also the only team in the top 50 since 1981). This is probably due to their fielding (they lead the NL in DER with .732). Top 3 teams since 2006 in defensive efficiency rating are the 2016 Cubs .732, 2011 Rays .724, 2013 Reds .715. Cubs might be highest going even farther back but I stopped checking at 2006.

There is usually a pretty high correlation between BAbip allowed and DER for all MLB teams. Here is the correlation in some years

2015) -.97
1960) -.97
1920) -.98

But it was only -.73 in 1913. It was -.89 in 1914. I don't know why it was so low in 1913.

It might be worthwhile to do BAbip relative to the league average. It looks like the other teams on the list are from years that will have a relatively low league BAbip. The 2016 NL is 16th highest since 1913.

Update 9-20-2016: The Cubs are .046 below the league average and that appears to be the best ever (although I was having a bit of a problem for some years in finding the league average using the Excel VLOOKUP tool-if anyone is good at that, please comment here or email me)

Here are the best teams (I think I solved the VLOOKUP issue). Let me know if this formatting does not work. The third number is that team's BAbip allowed, then the league average and then the difference.

Why are the Cubs doing so well? Fielding? Something about their pitchers? Park effects? Just luck?

CHC    2016    0.254    0.300    -0.046
NYY    1939    0.256    0.293    -0.037
SEA    2001    0.262    0.297    -0.035
LAD    1975    0.25    0.284    -0.034
CIN    1999    0.267    0.300    -0.033
OAK    1980    0.258    0.288    -0.03
OAK    1990    0.258    0.287    -0.029
BRO    1941    0.249    0.277    -0.028
BAL    1979    0.258    0.286    -0.028
CHW    1991    0.26    0.288    -0.028
DET    1983    0.258    0.286    -0.028
NYY    1919    0.261    0.289    -0.028

Here is a comment someone left at Fangraphs. See The Most Extraordinary Team Statistic by Jeff Sullivan

"When I saw this headline, I was hoping you’d land on the Cubs’ ability to squash balls in play. But how about these other options for ways to quantify it?

BIP-Wins. Cubs are #1 all-time (since 1871):
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=0&season1=1871&ind=1&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

…and they have derived 9.5 more wins from this ability than the #2 team this season:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=6&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=1&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

BP’s Park-Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. The 2016 Cubs are #1 by a wide margin, but this stat only goes back to 1950:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=1960231

OPS+ allowed. B-R only has solid data going back to 1923 for this stat. During that period, the 2016 Cubs are #1 by three percentage points:

http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/HKbXG"

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Trout Now Leads In WAR Through Age 24

Here is the top 10


Rk Player WAR
1 Mike Trout 46.9
2 Ty Cobb 46.7
3 Mickey Mantle 40.9
4 Alex Rodriguez 38
5 Ken Griffey 37
6 Mel Ott 36.8
7 Rogers Hornsby 36.1
8 Jimmie Foxx 36
9 Arky Vaughan 34.3
10 Ted Williams 34.2

Now the leaders in WAR per 648 plate appearances for everyone with 20+ WAR through age 24. It looks like the WAR for Ruth does not include pitching.


Rk Player WAR PA Per 648PA
1 Babe Ruth 20.2 1332 9.83
2 Mike Trout 46.9 3441 8.83
3 Ted Williams 34.2 2613 8.48
4 Willie Mays 24.8 1978 8.12
5 Ty Cobb 46.7 3730 8.11
6 Rogers Hornsby 36.1 2902 8.06
7 Stan Musial 24 1953 7.96
8 Eddie Collins 28.1 2312 7.88
9 Mickey Mantle 40.9 3491 7.59
10 Tris Speaker 30.1 2623 7.44
11 Lou Gehrig 22.3 1952 7.40
12 Dick Allen 22.7 2040 7.21
13 Jimmie Foxx 36 3270 7.13
14 Alex Rodriguez 38 3515 7.01
15 Arky Vaughan 34.3 3180 6.99
16 Albert Pujols 29.2 2728 6.94
17 Joe DiMaggio 26.3 2545 6.70
18 Ken Griffey 37 3606 6.65
19 Eddie Mathews 31.5 3141 6.50
20 Barry Bonds 23.4 2388 6.35
21 Cal Ripken 27.9 2855 6.33
22 Rickey Henderson 28.1 2891 6.30
23 Johnny Bench 30.7 3229 6.16
24 Hank Aaron 29.9 3173 6.11
25 Frank Robinson 29.7 3155 6.10