Cubs are 10-11 in 1-run games-maybe their OPS of .653 in late & close situations is the reason

The Cubs OPS in late & close situations is just .653 (7th in NL). The league average is .680. The Cubs overall OPS is .782. Lg avg is .729.

Using all teams from 2010-14, the relationship between OPS differential and winning pct is

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

The Cubs currently have an OPS differential of .175. So they should have a winning pct of about .732 instead of "only" .662. They should have 56 wins, not just 51. Baseball Reference (where I got all my data) shows a Pythagorean total for the Cubs of 56.

Bad timing might be the reason the Cubs have not reached 56 wins.

The table shows some of their hitting splits.

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.260	0.370	0.447	0.818
None on	0.249	0.337	0.431	0.768
Men On	0.262	0.362	0.436	0.797
Late & Close	0.205	0.329	0.324	0.653
High Lvrge	0.264	0.362	0.406	0.769
Medium Lvrge	0.245	0.338	0.427	0.766
Low Lvrge	0.258	0.351	0.448	0.799

The table shows some of their pitching splits.

Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
RISP	0.208	0.297	0.346	0.643
None on	0.210	0.276	0.333	0.609
Men On	0.202	0.286	0.317	0.603
Late & Close	0.198	0.286	0.303	0.589
High Lvrge	0.207	0.288	0.292	0.580
Medium Lvrge	0.196	0.266	0.319	0.584
Low Lvrge	0.216	0.290	0.346	0.636

The hitters do well with runners on and w/RISP but overall they do better in Low Leverage situations and, of course, late & close is a weakness (which is just a random thing). The only problem for the pitchers seems to be a somewhat high OPS w/RISP but they do much better in Medium and High Leverage Cases.

AL OPS is .778 for June and .824 over the last 7 days

Has not even reached .760 in any month since Aug 2009 (.780) Only 3 even reached .750 one is May this year

Rangers Success Partly Due To Their Hitting In High Leverage Situations, But Maybe Only A Part

They are 47-26, leading the AL with a .644 winning pct (the Indians and Orioles are next with .577 each). The Rangers hitters have an overall OPS of .746. while their pitchers have allowed .735. That is an OPS differential of only .011. Not very impressive.

Using all teams from 2010-14, the relationship between OPS differential and winning pct is

Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF

That estimates the Rangers to have a .515 pct (much lower than their actual of .644 thru yesterday). They are .129 above this projection (one big factor is they are 17-4 in 1-run games).

But their differential is much bigger in High Leverage situations than otherwise. The two tables below show the stats for the hitters and pitchers

Ranger Pitchers	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High Lvrge	0.254	0.333	0.388	0.721
Medium Lvrge	0.249	0.314	0.405	0.719
Low Lvrge	0.262	0.327	0.431	0.758
Ranger Hitters	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
High Lvrge	0.294	0.347	0.483	0.830
Medium Lvrge	0.269	0.328	0.425	0.753
Low Lvrge	0.247	0.300	0.407	0.708

So what are their OPS differentials in each case?

Low -.050
Medium .034
High .109

Using the same years mentioned above, here is the equation when breaking things down by leverage

Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH

Estimating the Rangers pct here would be

Pct = .5 + .306*(-.050) + .420*(.034) + .564*(.109) = .560

That explains about 35% of the difference between their actual pct of .644 and the .515 predicted by just using overall OPS differential (or at least makes it 35% smaller). So what else might explain their performance?

The Rangers do lead the league in turning DPs with 94. The next highest total is 79. The league average is 66. So the extra 28 DPs probably helps, too.

They allow a .323 OBP while the league average is .321. So they are probably not getting too many more guys on base and should have about an average number of DP opportunities. 

I am not seeing anything else that big that jumps out that would account for their high winning pct. They do take the extra base 43% of the time vs. 40% for the league average (that is, a runner advances more than one base on a single and more that two on a double). They are tied for 3rd in the league. The Indians lead with 49%. But the Rangers also lead with outs on base. So it seems like base running is not helping them too much.

They have played 38 games (a bit more than half) against the worst 6 teams in the league in taking the extra base. That might help a bit.

They do lead the league in bases taken on fly balls, wild pitches, passed balls and balks. They have 85 and the league average is 70. Seems small.

Getting back to their record of 17-4 in 1-run games, you might think it would be a result of their bullpen. But their bullpen has an ERA of 4.71, the highest in the league. Their bullpen has the 2nd highest OPS in the league at .792. The Twins have .806. The Rangers bullpen does lead the league in GDPs with 29.

Their entire staff also leads the league in GDPs in High Leverage Situations with 39. Seattle is 2nd with 31. The MLB average is 23. So those extra 16 DPs in key situations might help.

Their batters have hit into 29 DPs in High Leverage situations. Their net gain of 10 DPs is tied for 3rd in the league.

What Was The Biggest Positive OPS Differential For A Team That Lost A Game?

Tom Ruane of SABR & Retrosheet extracted this information from the database for me. The answer is the Angels, just last year, on Sept. 30. They lost to the A's 8-7. In the game, the Angels had an OPS of 1.226 while the A's had .567 for a differential of .659. Tom just posted an analysis that goes into alot more detail and covers other issues like what was the highest OPS for a certain number of runs scored in a game, etc. See Fun with a Team's OPS.

The Angels outhit the A's 13-6. The Angels had 5 HRs and a 2B while the A's had 1 2B & 1 3B. The Angels walked 6 times and the A's had 7. The Angels made 4 errors and the A's made 2. All of the runs the A's allowed were earned while only one allowed by the Angels was earned. There were no hit batters in the game.

4 of the 5 HRs the Angels hit were solo shots and the other was a 2-run HR. The A's 2B came in the 4th inning with 2 outs and bases loaded. One of the runners had reached on an error. All three runners scored and all of those runs were unearned. Something similar happened in the 7th inning when the A's scored 4 runs.

Click here see the boxscore of that game

Here is the rest of the top 10. The first number is the OPS differential. Then the team that lost while having that differential followed by the date then the OPS they had and the OPS they allowed.

.643 OAK A 1998-5-10 .877 .234(lose to White Sox 4-3)
.583 MON N 1999-4-19 1.360 .777(lose to Rockies 11-10)
.573 PIT N 1918-6-18 .730 .157(lose to Phillies 1-0)
.526 BRO N 1930-8-11 1.157 .631(lose to Cardinals 7-6)
.523 PIT N 1917-5- 6 .821 .299(lose to Cubs 3-2)
.522 KC A 1979-4-30 1.175 .653(lose to Rangers 8-7)
.505 MIN A 2005-8-31 .899 .394(lose to Royals 1-0)
.492 DET A 1950-8-11(2) .944 .452(lose to Browns 2-1)
.491 TEX A 1989-8-15 .725 .234(lose to Mariners 2-0)

The St. Louis Browns And Philadelphia Athletics Were The Only Teams To Finish 7th Or 8th In The AL From 1935-39

I used data from Fangraphs. As far as I can tell, this is the only occurrence from 1901-61, when eight team leagues were used, that there were five straight years when only two teams occupied the last two places in the league.

In only one of these years did either team even come close to 6th place (1935). The table below shows this. In four of the five seasons, the 7th place team could get no closer than 10 games to the 6th place team. It must be hard knowing you don't even have much chance of coming in 6th place.

The A's went 28-78 over those five years against the pennant winners (1935 Tigers, 1936-39 Yankees). The Browns were 29-81. In both cases, that is a .264 winning pct.

In the table below, the 6th place team each year is in Red just for clarity.

Year	Pos	Team	W	L	Pct	GB
1935	6	WSH	67	86	0.438	27
1935	7	SLB	65	87	0.428	28.5
1935	8	PHA	58	91	0.389	34
1936	6	BOS	74	80	0.480	28.5
1936	7	SLB	57	95	0.375	44.5
1936	8	PHA	53	100	0.346	49
1937	6	WSH	73	80	0.477	28.5
1937	7	PHA	54	97	0.358	46.5
1937	8	SLB	46	108	0.299	56
1938	6	CHW	65	83	0.439	32
1938	7	SLB	55	97	0.362	44
1938	8	PHA	53	99	0.349	46
1939	6	WSH	65	87	0.428	41.5
1939	7	PHA	55	97	0.362	51.5
1939	8	SLB	43	111	0.279	64.5

The next table shows the last date each team was not in 7th or 8th place in all five years plus the highest rank they had all year. After May 18, the Browns were in 7th or 8th in every year. There is only one year where one of the teams was not in the last two slots after July 17, the A's in 1935.

Both teams had losing records in April each year except for 1937. When the A's were .500. The 1937 Browns were only in first place after winning on opening day. Then they lost 5 of 6. The A's that year spent 13 days in first place. Their high water mark was 6 games over .500 at 15-9. They then lost 16 of 17 including a 10 game losing streak. They fell from 1st on May 23 to 7th on June 6.

Year	Brown's Last Day Not In 7th Or 8th	Brown's Highest Rank	A's Last Day Not In 7th Or 8th	A's Highest Rank
1935	28-Apr	3	31-Aug	5
1936	14-Apr	5	5-May	5
1937	15-May	1	5-Jun	1
1938	28-Apr	2	3-Jul	6
1939	18-May	2	17-Jul	2

Cubs & Mets Pitching Staffs Having Historic Seasons So Far According to FIP-

That is Fielding Independent ERA adjusted for league average and park effects. Data from Fangraphs.

Here are the top 13 since 1900. I wanted to have the top 10 plus the Cubs and Mets from this year but since one of the teams is from 1994 (Braves) and that season only had about 115 games, I went with the top 13. A lower number is better. 77 is like saying their ERA is 77% of the league average.

Season	Team	FIP-
2016	Mets	77
1996	Braves	80
2016	Cubs	81
1911	Giants	81
1909	Cubs	81
1908	Giants	81
2013	Tigers	82
2003	Dodgers	82
2003	Yankees	82
1997	Braves	82
1994	Braves	82
1971	White Sox	82
1904	Athletics	82

Cubs Have A .190 OPS Differential-Only Team To Finish Higher Since 1913 Was The 1927 Yankees

The Cubs hitters have an OPS of .773. Their pitchers have allowed .583 (only 8 teams since 1920 have allowed an OPS of .600 or less for a full season). Below are the top 25. Notice that .158 is currently 2nd place. The Cubs are well above that and it seems like they should easily finish the year in the top 25. They seem to have a good chance of making the top 10. They have played 58 games or just a bit more than a third of the season.

If the Cubs can have a differential of .100 the rest of the way, they would finish at .132. That would be 5th best ever. If they could do .141, they would finish at .159 or 2nd best ever. To make the top 25, they need about .064 from here on. That does not seem to hard given that they had .057 for all of last year.

Team	Year	OPS	OPSA	DIFF
NYY	1927	0.872	0.676	0.196
NYY	1939	0.825	0.667	0.158
ATL	1998	0.795	0.656	0.139
BAL	1969	0.756	0.620	0.136
NYY	1936	0.864	0.733	0.131
STL	1944	0.745	0.615	0.130
STL	1942	0.717	0.590	0.127
CLE	1948	0.792	0.665	0.127
NYY	1998	0.825	0.699	0.126
SEA	2001	0.805	0.679	0.126
PHA	1929	0.816	0.692	0.124
NYY	1937	0.825	0.704	0.121
CLE	1995	0.839	0.718	0.121
BRO	1953	0.840	0.722	0.118
CLE	1954	0.744	0.626	0.118
NYY	1932	0.830	0.714	0.116
NYY	1931	0.840	0.726	0.114
PHA	1928	0.799	0.685	0.114
ATL	1997	0.769	0.655	0.114
STL	1943	0.725	0.611	0.114
NYY	1921	0.838	0.725	0.113
BRO	1941	0.752	0.641	0.111
LAD	1974	0.743	0.633	0.110
PHA	1931	0.789	0.680	0.109
BOS	2003	0.851	0.742	0.109

Was This 2011 Prediction True: "Prince Fielder's numbers will surpass those of Albert Pujols?"

It was not my prediction. See Will Prince Fielder Surpass Albert Pujols? The prediction was made by someone on ESPN (I wasn't paying close enough attention at the time to know which one of three announcers said that).  So far this year, in 226 PAs, Fielder has an OPS+ of just 47 (BA-OBP-SLG are 0.193-0.261-0.292). Since 2007, only 4 guys who were 1B or OF or DH had an OPS+ under 47 with 200+ PAs. Maybe his injury from a few years ago (I think it was his neck), is hurting him somehow. But I don't see anyone saying that.

Here is an excerpt from that 2011 (4-20) post I did:

"On Monday night before the Brewers game, a commentator on ESPN said something like "now that Fielder is entering his prime years, his numbers will surpass those of Albert Pujols.""

One thing I showed was a comparison of OPS+ by age for the two players. In the table below, the red line represents the year 2011 for Fielder, which I did not list back then since it was so early in the season. Yes, he did surpass Pujols at that age (but just barely, 164-157). Notice how he has not come close, age-by-age, since then.

Age	Pujols OPS+	Fielder OPS+
21	157	97
22	151	110
23	187	157
24	172	130
25	168	166
26	178	137
27	157	164
28	190	151
29	189	122
30	173	102
31	148	124
32	138	47
33	116
34	126
35	117
36	111

The next table shows what they did in each year, starting in 2011. Fielder has hardly dominated Pujols since then, despite being 4 years younger. Fielder beats him 138-130, over the entire 5-year period. Maybe that is what the ESPN announcer meant.

Year	Pujols OPS+	Fielder OPS+
11	148	164
12	138	151
13	116	122
14	126	102
15	117	124
16	111	47