Was Richie Ashburn Undervalued By The Hall Of Fame Voters?

The Veteran's Committee put him in in 1995. The highest percentage he ever got from the writers was 41.7. But even now he is still 98th in career WAR among position player at Baseball Reference. Fangraphs has him at 127. Through 2001, he was tied for 115th among both pitchers and hitters in Win Shares.

Ashburn had over 2500 career hits and nearly 1200 walks to go along with a career AVG of .308 and OBP of .396. He had little power with just 29 career HRs, but he stole over 200 bases at time (the 1950s) when there was not much stealing going on. He had 109 career triples, leading the league twice.

He finished 4th in WAR once and twice 5th (from BR). His peak value might be stronger if those were all consecutive years, but they were not. He did, however, have 7 top 10 finishes. He also had 5 top 10 finishes in defensive WAR, including 3 in the top 5 (that is among all position players).

He had 11 seasons with at least 20 Win Shares. Bill James says that is an all-star type season. 8 of them were 25 WS or more. He had 7 top 10 finishes (that combines pitchers and hitters). He finished in the top 5 in fielding WS among NL outfielders 11 times, including 3 first place finishes.

Is Tim McCarver Right About The A's, That The Individual Numbers Are Not There?

McCarver just said about the A's they are a team "you cannot figure out. If you look at their individual numbers, they are not there." I am not sure about their individual numbers, but as a team they have a .731 OPS and their pitchers have allowed a .686 OPS. That is a .045 differential. If you plug that into the equation

Pct = .5 +1.21*OPSDIFF

you get a .554 pct and 78 wins in 141 games. They actually have 81. So they are winning almost as many games as you would expect. I got the above equation from regression analysis

The (Non?) Legend Of Dazzy Vance

Maybe his brother Bagger had a better press agent. Dazzy only got 44% of the vote for a Hall of Fame in a poll held by Joe Posnanski. See BR Hall of Fame. Vance seems like a no-brainer. Now he never pitched in an All-Star game, mostly because it began after his best years. He only pitched in 1 World Series game, very late in his career and his appearance was of little consequence. He did pitch a no-hitter. He may be in the real Hall of Fame, but it seems like people today are not aware of his accomplishments. Click here to go to his Baseball Refernce page.

Here is what I said in the comments that shows how great he was:

He led the NL in WAR (Wins above replacement) for pitchers 4 times, plus a 2nd, a 4th and a 5th and is 47th all-time.

All of his WAR comes from age 31 on.

He has the highest relative strikeouts per 9 IP ever for pitchers with 2000+ IP (table below).

He also has the highest relative strikeout-to-walk ratio ever (table below).

He led the NL in strikeout-to-walk ratio 8 straight years (I think only Mathewson matches that).

He allowed about 20% fewer HRs than average.

He led the league in ERA+ 3 times (that is ERA adjusted for park effects).

He led 8 times in strikeouts per 9 IP.

He led the league in fewest hits per 9 IP 4 times.

6 top 5 finishes in walks per 9 IP.

Led NL in FIP ERA five times (that is an estimated ERA based on only walks, strikeouts and HRs).

This last one is impressive because I don't think his main park, Ebbetts Field, from 1922-32, the bulk of his career, helped him. I found the average park factor for HRs in those years using Seamheads.com Ballparks Database. I used the 3-year averages for each of those years and found a weighted based on IP. Here is how they broke down:

All batters: 102.5
RHB: 95.4
LHB: 116.3

If I had used the 1-year factors, things came out almost the same. The 102.5 means that his park allowed 2.5% more HRs than average. Now it favored him against RHB but he was a righty, so the 116.3 against LHB stands out.

The table below shows the top 10 pitchers in relative strikeout rates. The 213 for Vance means his rate was 2.13 times the league average (which gets multiplied times 100, 6.20/2.91 = 2.13)

Rank	Pitcher	RATE	PLAYER	LEAGUE
1	Dazzy Vance	213	6.20	2.91
2	Rube Waddell	193	7.04	3.65
3	Nolan Ryan	180	9.55	5.31
4	Toad Ramsey	171	6.49	3.79
5	Randy Johnson	167	10.61	6.34
6	Sandy Koufax	167	9.27	5.57
7	Amos Rusie	163	4.62	2.82
8	Van Lingle Mungo	160	5.30	3.30
9	Bob Feller	160	6.07	3.80
10	Lefty Grove	159	5.18	3.25

The table below shows the top 10 pitchers in relative strikeout-to-walk ratio. 

Rank	Pitcher	RATE	PLAYER	LEAGUE
1	Dazzy Vance	239	2.43	1.02
2	Christy Mathewson	230	2.96	1.29
3	Curt Schilling	226	4.38	1.94
4	Walter Johnson	225	2.57	1.14
5	Cy Young	220	2.30	1.05
6	Pedro Martinez	217	4.15	1.91
7	Lefty Grove	211	1.91	0.90
8	Deacon Phillippe	211	2.56	1.21
9	Jim Whitney	211	3.82	1.82
10	Bret Saberhagen	208	3.64	1.75

Is Allen Craig's .452 Average With Runners In Scoring Position A Reason To Believe In Clutch Hitting?

I don't think so. But it seems like TYLER KEPNER of the NY Times does. See A Reason to Believe in Clutch Hitting, printed in the Sunday edition.

Kepner also mentions that the Cardinals have a .327 AVG with RISP. Then says "In the last 40 seasons, the highest team average with runners in scoring position is .311 by the 2007 Detroit Tigers."

In 2007, the Tigers had an overall AVG of .287. So they hit 24 points better with RISP. The next year they had an overall AVG of .271 and .268 with RISP. So they hit 3 points worse. Did they forget how to hit in the clutch?

No, I don't think so. ABs with RISP are usually only about 25% of the total. With 30 teams a year, some will hit better with RISP than they normally do and some worse. Just by chance, every so often, a team will hit alot better or worse with RISP than they normally do. But it is hard to sustain. In the long run, players usually hit about the same with RISP as they do overall.

The article also said "The highest individual average in that time (the last 40 seasons) is .469 by Kansas City’s George Brett in 1980." He batted .390 in 1980. Brett's next best season with RISP is .360. In 1981 he batted .314 overall but only .260 with RISP. So in 1980 he was 72 points better with RISP than overall and in 1981 he 54 points worse. How could that happen to a "clutch" hitter? His overall career AVG was .305 and with RISP it is .307.

I used the Baseball Reference Play Index to call up all the players with 5000+ PAs during the years BR has RISP stats (there were exactly 600 guys). Now keep in mind that Allen Craig has a lifetime AVG of .308 but .393 with RISP. That gives him an 85 point differential. No player with a long career has even half that differential. Below are the top 10

Rk	Player	RISP AVG	Total AVG	DIFF
1	Chico Carrasquel	0.299	0.258	0.041
2	Elmer Valo	0.324	0.287	0.037
3	Adrian Gonzalez	0.330	0.294	0.036
4	Sandy Alomar	0.280	0.245	0.035
5	Tony Fernandez	0.319	0.288	0.031
6	Mike Sweeney	0.327	0.297	0.030
7	Vic Wertz	0.307	0.277	0.030
8	Scott Fletcher	0.291	0.262	0.029
9	Hector Lopez	0.297	0.269	0.028
10	Johnny Edwards	0.268	0.242	0.026

Do you ever hear about Carrasquel or Valo being clutch hitters? Also, 67.8% had of the guys had a differential of 10 points or less. 94% had a differential of 20 points or less.

Trout Could Be Fifth Player To Lead League In Both Triples And Walks In The Same Season

The others are Ross Barnes, Mickey Mantle, Richie Ashburn and Ron Santo. What an unusual set of skills: you have to hit the ball far enough and hard enough for a triple, you need to be fast and be a good base runner, you have to be patient and disciplined at the plate with a great eye.

Trout leads with 9 triples. Ellsbury and Gardner have 8. Trout is a righty and they are both lefties. Trout has 82 walks and Cabrera has 77.

in 1876, Barnes had 14 triples, leading by 1. He had 20 BBs, leading by 5. He played only 66 games since the schedule was shorter and maybe it was still 8 balls for a walk.

In 1955, Mantle tied teammate Andy Carey with 11 triples. He led with 113 walks. Billy Goodman was 2nd with 99. Ted Williams had 91 walks in 98 games.

In 1958, Ashburn was 31 and led in triples for the second time with 13. Three other guys had 11. He beat Johnny Temple in walks 97-91. He led the NL in walks 4 times.

In 1964, Santo tied Dick Allen with 13 triples (Allen is listed below because he led the AL in walks once). My guess is that it is hard for a righty in Wrigley Field to lead the league. Santo beat Eddie Mathews in walks 86-85.

Here is a list of all the players to ever lead the league in both walks and triples, although not necessarily in the same season. A very impressive list

ARKY VAUGHAN  3 each,  led in 3B one year then 3 in a row for BB then 3B the next year
BRETT BULER                                                                              

DICK ALLEN           different leagues 1each

FRED CLARKE        At age 33 led in 3B, age  36 BB  1 each  (playing in Pitt. maybe helped)

JIM GILLIAM           17 3B in rookie year, never again in double figures                                     

JIM O'ROURKE        led with 20 BB in 1877

JIMMY SHECKARD                                                                                   

JOE MORGAN          led NL in walks as 21 year old rookie

LOU GEHRIG                                                                                  

MAX CAREY            Twice led in each, BB at age 32 then 3B at 33                                                  

MICKEY MANTLE  Both in 1955                                                               

RICHIE ASHBURN  Both in 1958 at age 31, 4 times in BBs, 2 in 3Bs

ROGER CONNOR                                                                           

ROGERS HORNSBY  2 in 3Bs, 3 in BBs

RON SANTO             both in 64                                                                   

ROSS BARNES         Led NA in both in 1873, too

STAN MUSIAL         5 in 3B                                                                       

TOM YORK                                                                          

WILLIE MAYS         3 times in 3Bs, 1 in BBs, age 40              

Koji Uehara's Great Season

He pitched 1 inning today with 1 strikeout and nothing else, so his numbers are actually a bit better than what you see below. Coming into today, his ERA was 1.19. His FIP ERA was 1.89, 103 all-time for guys with 50+ IP. That is still in the top half of 1 percent.

This table shows where he ranks in WHIP

Rk	Player	WHIP	IP	Year
1	Dennis Eckersley	0.607	57.2	1989
2	Dennis Eckersley	0.614	73.1	1990
3	Koji Uehara	0.63	60.1	2013
4	Craig Kimbrel	0.654	62.2	2012
5	Mariano Rivera	0.665	70.2	2008
6	Joaquin Benoit	0.68	60.1	2010
7	Eric Gagne	0.692	82.1	2003
8	J.J. Putz	0.698	71.2	2007

Now his rank in opponents' batting average

Rk	Player	BA	IP	Year
1	Craig Kimbrel	0.126	62.2	2012
2	Eric Gagne	0.133	82.1	2003
3	Carlos Marmol	0.135	87.1	2008
4	Billy Wagner	0.135	74.2	1999
5	Jeff Nelson	0.136	65.1	2001
6	Jose Valverde	0.137	50.1	2003
7	Tyler Clippard	0.138	60.1	2013
8	Koji Uehara	0.139	60.1	2013
9	Hung-Chih Kuo	0.139	60	2010
10	Aroldis Chapman	0.141	71.2	2012

Now his rank in ERA+. Who knew that Bill Henry broke Earl Hamilton's record in 1964? And who knew Rob Murphy broke that in 1986?

Rk	Player	ERA+	IP	Year
1	Fernando Rodney	634	74.2	2012
2	Dennis Eckersley	603	73.1	1990
3	Rob Murphy	541	50.1	1986
4	Jonathan Papelbon	517	68.1	2006
5	Dennys Reyes	507	50.2	2006
6	Chris Hammond	441	76	2002
7	Bill Henry	420	52	1964
8	Jose Mesa	418	64	1995
9	Craig Kimbrel	408	56.2	2013
10	Mark Melancon	401	60.1	2013
11	Craig Kimbrel	399	62.2	2012
12	David Robertson	399	66.2	2011
13	Eric O'Flaherty	393	73.2	2011
14	Brad Ziegler	390	59.2	2008
15	John Smoltz	385	64.1	2003
16	Cla Meredith	382	50.2	2006
17	Dale Murray	374	69.2	1974
18	Tim Burke	356	91	1987
19	Earl Hamilton	352	54	1918
20	Koji Uehara	351	60.1	2013