Friday, July 24, 2015

Kershaw now has 45 strikeouts since his last walk-but is it a record?

No, not according to Tom Ruane. See Most Strikeouts Between Hits Allowed... And Then Some.

Here are the best streaks that he found from 1956-2010:


Pitcher           SO  IP    Start         End
Curt Schilling    56  44    2002- 5-13    2002- 6- 8  
Greg Maddux       53  71.2  2001- 6-20    2001- 8-12  
Pedro Martinez    49  42.1  2000- 8- 2    2000- 9- 4  
Dennis Eckersley  47  51.2  1989- 8-22    1990- 6-12  
Koji Uehara       46  38    2010- 7-19    2011- 4-15
John Smoltz       45  39    2003- 7-24    2004- 6-11  
Eric Gagne        43  29    2002- 5- 4    2002- 7- 3  
Javier Vazquez    43  54.2  2005- 4-25    2005- 6- 9  
Bret Saberhagen   41  47.2  1994- 5-10    1994- 6-13  
Greg Maddux       41  51.1  1995- 6- 3    1995- 7-13  
Luke Gregerson    41  33    2010- 4-14    2010- 6-20
 
Tom posted an update on the SABR list and gave me permission to post it here. He looked at more years:



I re-ran the query from 1946 to 2014 and Curt Schiling is still at the top.
The current top ten list:

Curt Schilling         56  44.0 2002- 5-13    2002- 6- 8
Greg Maddux            53  71.2 2001- 6-20    2001- 8-12
Pedro Martinez         49  42.1 2000- 8- 2    2000- 9- 4
Dennis Eckersley       47  51.2 1989- 8-22    1990- 6-12
Koji Uehara            46  38.1 2010- 7-19    2011- 4-17
Craig Kimbrel          46  27.0 2012- 5-20    2012- 8- 2
John Smoltz            45  39.0 2003- 7-24    2004- 6-11
Eric Gagne             43  29.0 2002- 5- 4    2002- 7- 3
Javier Vazquez         43  54.2 2005- 4-25    2005- 6- 9
Cliff Lee              43  31.2 2013- 9-11    2014- 3-31

Sorry for the poor formatting (there's a reason why I usually only post
links to these sorts of things). Each line contains the players name,
length of streaks, innings, start and end date.

The leaders by decade:

Craig Kimbrel          46  27.0 2012- 5-20    2012- 8- 2

Curt Schilling         56  44.0 2002- 5-13    2002- 6- 8

Bret Saberhagen        41  47.2 1994- 5-10    1994- 6-13
Greg Maddux            41  51.1 1995- 6- 3    1995- 7-13

Dennis Eckersley       47  51.2 1989- 8-22    1990- 6-12

Fergie Jenkins         39  43.1 1971- 7- 6    1971- 7-28

Don Drysdale           37  51.1 1962- 7-13    1962- 8- 7

Robin Roberts          30  40.0 1955- 6- 5(1) 1955- 7- 1

Luke Hamlin            22  37.2 1940- 8-30    1940- 9-15(2)
Hal Newhouser          22  18.1 1946- 9-18    1946- 9-29

The 1940s leaders are only complete from 1946 to 1949.So far, Dazzy Vance
has the highest mark from the 1930s:

Dazzy Vance            41  42.0 1930- 9- 2    1930- 9-27(1)
 

Wednesday, July 22, 2015

A Case For The 1967 American League Being The Best Season Ever

It was a close four team race for about the 2nd half of the season and two Hall of Famers on the two teams that played each other the last two games to decided the pennant both had outstanding Septembers.

This is from a couple items I posted to the SABR list:

Has anyone done a study of the best pennant races? Maybe you would take into account how many teams were in the race, how close the teams were to each other and for how long were they close. There could be some mathematical way of quantifying it. Not sure how exactly.

But in 1967, the AL had a close 4 team race and they were all in it for about the whole 2nd half. Here is what I see looking at Baseball Reference :

Red Sox: Last day more than 5 games out was July 14. After Aug. 31 they were never ahead or behind by more than 1 game

Tigers: Last day more than 5 games out was July 1. After Aug. 31 they were never ahead by more than 1 game or behind by more than 2.5 games

Twins: Last day more than 5 games out was July 1. After Aug. 31 they were never ahead or behind by more than 1 game

White Sox: Never were behind by more than 3 games. Their biggest lead of the season was 5.5 games and they only had that 4 times and the last one was July 1. From Sept. 15 to Sept. 24 they were never more than 2 games out.

With 3 games left, the White Sox were still in it (not mathematically eliminated). Tigers with 4 games and Twins and Red Sox with 2.
 
What makes this all even more amazing is what Harmon Killebrew and Carl Yastrzemski did in September (actually some Octobers games so I should say after Aug. 31).
 
Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, I called up the best Septembers ever based on sOPS+ (actually Sept/Oct). As far as I can tell, that is OPS adjusted for the league average and park effects.

The PA minimum was 90 and sOPS+ had to be at least 250. Both Yastrzemski (294, 5th best since 1914, I think that is when it starts) & Killebrew (250, 47th best) made the list.

There were three other years where two guys from the same league & year made the list but there was not much of a pennant race in those years (1923 AL, 1933 AL, 1946 AL).

After Aug. 31, Yaz batted .417 with a .504 OBP and a .760 SLG. He had 9 HRs and 26 RBIs in in 27 games. He grounded into just 1 DP.

After Aug. 31, Killebrew batted .333 with a .438 OBP and a .685 SLG. He had 10 HRs and 23 RBIs in 30 games. He grounded into just 2 DPs.

Given how close the pennant race was, that it went down to the last two games between the Red Sox and Twins and that two Hall of Famers hit so well, this has to be one of the greatest months or seasons ever.

Oh, yah, Yaz was 7 for 8 in those last 2 games with 6 RBIs, 1 HR and 1 2B. Killebrew was 4 for 6 with 3 BBs, 2 RBIs, 1 HR, 1 2B.

Thursday, July 16, 2015

Trout Among Elite Who Have Led Their League In WAR For Three Or More Consecutive Years Since 1900

The other guys to have done it are among the greatest ever. It is only 11 other players. Trout currently leads the AL with 5.9 (Manny Machado and Jason Kipnis are each next with 4.8). So he has a good chance to lead 4 straight years. Then the list falls to 7 previously to do that.

The table below shows all the streaks and some relevant data. The + sign indicates a Hall of Famer. I think I got everyone just by looking over the annual leaders several times. If I missed anyone, let me know.


Player (yrs)
Streak
Years
Age
WAR
High
Avg
8
1902-09
28-35
72.2
11.5
9.03
3
1906-08
31-33
25.5
10.0
8.50
3
1909-11
22-24
31.0
10.7
10.33
6
1917-22
21-26
52.4
10.8
8.73
3
1919-21
24-26
34.2
12.9
11.40
6
1926-31
31-36
62.6
12.4
10.43
3
1927-29
31-33
29.2
10.4
9.73
3
1934-36
31-33
28.1
10.4
9.37
5
1955-59
23-27
47.3
11.3
9.46
5
1962-66
31-35
52.3
11.2
10.46
3
1986-88
28-30
24.6
8.3
8.20
4
1990-93
25-28
36.6
9.9
9.15
4
2001-04
36-39
43.4
11.9
10.85
6
2005-10
25-30
52.0
9.7
8.67
3
2012-14
20-22
27.9
10.8
9.30

Some notes: Ruth, Hornsby and Bonds each had two separate streaks. Ruth's best year was 1923 with an all-time high WAR of 14.1 and it is not part of either streak he has in the table. Ted Williams led the AL in 1941-42 and 1946-47 but was in the military from 1943-45. Stan Musial led the NL in 1943-44 and 1946 but was in the military in 1945. Besides Trout, only Cobb and Hornsby started streaks at age 22 or younger.