Sunday, May 10, 2015

Mike Trout's Amazing RBI-To-GDP Ratio

Through May 9, Trout had 326 career RBIs and just 24 GDP. That is a ratio of 13.58. Here are the top 10 right handed batters since 1946 with 5,000 career PAs:


Joe Carter 10.95
Greg Vaughn 10.61
Tim Salmon 10.37
Ron Gant 10.29
Mike Schmidt 10.22
Dan Uggla 9.86
Mark McGwire 9.62
Bobby Bonds 9.57
Alfonso Soriano 9.42
Gorman Thomas 9.31

So Trout is currently way ahead of even the best, Joe Carter. Here is the top ten through age 24 with 1,000 PAs:


Mike Schmidt 14.25
Cory Snyder 13.73
Mike Trout 13.58
Bobby Bonds 13.53
Ellis Burks 12.47
Andrew McCutchen 12.44
Dean Palmer 11.44
Dave Nicholson 11.25
Chris Young 10.87
Mark McGwire 10.76

Trout will not turn 24 until August, so this counts as his age 23 season. Now let's add in SB and CS


Player RBI/GDP SB CS
Mike Schmidt 14.25 31 14
Cory Snyder 13.73 7 4
Mike Trout 13.58 109 14
Bobby Bonds 13.53 109 21
Ellis Burks 12.47 73 20
Andrew McCutchen 12.44 78 25
Dean Palmer 11.44 21 16
Dave Nicholson 11.25 5 9
Chris Young 10.87 43 12
Mark McGwire 10.76 1 2

Just think of all the DPs Trout helped his team avoid by stealing. AND he does not kill rallies by getting caught very much, either. The only guy who matches him in stealing is Bobby Bonds but he got thrown out 7 more times. I wonder if there is some way to adjust the RBI/GDP ratio based on SB & CS. If so, Trout might be way ahead of everyone else.

I did create a stat once to judge leadoff men. It was how many times a guy got into scoring position (2B+3B+SB-assumes all SB are of 2nd base, not quite right) divided by how many outs he makes (not just batting outs but CS added in and GDP added in-just once for GDP since an out is already there). Call it SCP/Out.

This next table has the 20 through age 24 with 1,000 PAs in both RBI/GDP and SCP/Out. Players who made both lists are in red:


Player
RBI/GDP

Player
SCP/Outs
Mike Schmidt
14.25

Rickey Henderson
0.297
Cory Snyder
13.73

Hanley Ramirez
0.212
Mike Trout
13.58

Marquis Grissom
0.210
Bobby Bonds
13.53

Juan Samuel
0.210
Ellis Burks
12.47

Cesar Cedeno
0.200
Andrew McCutchen
12.44

Bert Campaneris
0.188
Dean Palmer
11.44

Mike Trout
0.178
Dave Nicholson
11.25

Jose Altuve
0.170
Chris Young
10.87

Bobby Bonds
0.169
Mark McGwire
10.76

Chad Curtis
0.169
Scott Rolen
10.61

Amos Otis
0.168
Mark Reynolds
10.60

Paul Molitor
0.166
Andre Dawson
10.26

Melvin Upton
0.163
Jose Cardenal
9.89

Andrew McCutchen
0.163
Pat Burrell
9.88

Rondell White
0.158
Juan Samuel
9.87

Ryne Sandberg
0.157
Josh Barfield
9.82

Ellis Burks
0.156
Pete Incaviglia
9.65

David Wright
0.154
Bill Melton
9.48

Matt Kemp
0.152
Alex Rodriguez
9.44

Jason Kendall
0.151
 

Five guys are on both lists. Trout is highest among them in RBI/GDP and only Samuel beats him in SCP/Out. Bobby Bonds is very close to Trout in both numbers. Hanley Ramirez was 21st in RBI/GDP ratio.

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Hitting with runners on and in scoring position seems to be exceeding normal differentials so far this year

See these links for comparisons

http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2014/10/major-league-situational-stats-2010-2014.html
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=NL&year=2015
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015

I will try to update later with the relevant numbers in tables

so far this year


Split BA OBP SLG
RISP 0.259 0.342 0.414
None on 0.241 0.305 0.382
Men On 0.261 0.335 0.414




NL


Split BA OBP SLG
RISP 0.260 0.336 0.399
None on 0.237 0.295 0.369
Men On 0.265 0.332 0.407

Major League Situational Stats, 2010-2014

Compiled using the Baseball Reference Play Index.

Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Total 923779 0.254 0.319 0.398 0.717
None On 520158 0.249 0.310 0.393 0.702
Men On 403621 0.261 0.332 0.405 0.737
RISP 238074 0.255 0.339 0.394 0.733
Late & Close 153559 0.240 0.316 0.365 0.681

seems like differentials are much higher in 2015 than usual

Sunday, April 26, 2015

How To Lead The League In HRs And Batting Average But Not RBIs Babe Ruth 1924 Edition

The first edition looked at Johnny Mize, 1939.

Since 1920, 12 players have won the triple crown (it has been won 12 times but Hornsby and Ted Williams each did it twice) and three other players led their league in HRs and AVG but not RBIs. So 80% of the time a player leads in the first two stats they win the triple crown. Click here to see the Baseball Reference list of triple crown winners.

Ted Williams, 1941 is the other player besides Mize and Ruth to fit this category.

Here are the leaders in the AL in 1924:

AVG

1.Ruth (NYY).378
2.Jamieson (CLE).359
3.Falk (CHW).352
4.Collins (CHW).349
5.Bassler (DET).346

HR

1.Ruth (NYY)46
2.Hauser (PHA)27
3.Jacobson (SLB)19
4.Williams (SLB)18
5.Boone (BOS)13

RBI

1.Goslin (WSH)129
2.Ruth (NYY)124

Meusel (NYY)124
4.Hauser (PHA)115
5.Heilmann (DET)114

How could Goslin get more RBIs than Ruth? Goslin hit 12 HRs and batted .344. Ruth beat him in TBs 391-299 and in extra-base hits 92-59. Ruth only beat him 200-199 in total hits, however.

Ruth batted 3rd in all but one of his 681 PAs. Goslin had 624 of his 674 PAs batting 4th and the rest 3rd.

Here are the stats for slots 1-3 on the Senators (with Goslin removed from the stats for slot 3)


Slot 2B 3B HR SB CS OBP
1 29 22 0 14 11 0.357
2 27 13 1 19 20 0.364
3 35 5 1 28 5 0.357

Here are the stats for slots 1-2 on the Yankees


Slot 2B 3B HR SB CS OBP
1 27 7 2 10 10 0.350
2 33 8 3 1 3 0.341

The three guys in front of Goslin had about a .359 combined OBP. Those guys averaged getting on base about 248 times each.

The two guys in front of Ruth are about .345. Those guys averaged getting on base about 240 times each.

It looks like the Senators might also have had faster runners with their higher triple and SB totals.

But it seems like this would not be enough to overcome Ruth's huge lead in HR's, TBs and extra-base hits. Maybe Ruth got walked alot with runners in scoring position. He had 142 BBs and Goslin had 68. That gave Goslin an extra 74 times to swing the bat and they were both pretty close in total PAs.

Retrosheet does not have the splits for batting with runners on and with runners in scoring position. Maybe Goslin did unusually well that year. Until we have those splits, we can't be sure what allowed him to have more RBIs than Ruth.