In the table below, the first two lines show the OPS and OPS allowed by each team this year in all situations. Then the next two sections show how each team did by leverage. All data from Baseball Reference and Stathead.
|
Team |
OPS |
OPSA |
Diff |
|
Guardians |
0.703 |
0.696 |
0.007 |
|
Yankees |
0.762 |
0.701 |
0.061 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Guardians |
OPS |
OPSA |
Diff |
|
High Lev |
0.745 |
0.614 |
0.131 |
|
Medium Lev |
0.710 |
0.755 |
-0.045 |
|
Low Lev |
0.680 |
0.678 |
0.002 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yankees |
OPS |
OPSA |
Diff |
|
High Lev |
0.744 |
0.624 |
0.120 |
|
Medium Lev |
0.730 |
0.732 |
-0.002 |
|
Low Lev |
0.790 |
0.703 |
0.087 |
The Guardians only dominated their opposition in high leverage situations. And in all situations the Yankees had a much better OPS differential (.061 vs .007).
From regressions I have done, this equation estimates team winning pct.
(1) Pct = .5 + 1.32*OPSDIFF
That predicts that the Guardians would have a .509 pct. and win 82.5 games, alot fewer than they actually did (92).
But another regression equation, broken down by leverage is
(2) Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH
That predicts the Guardians would have a .556 pct., which would be 90 wins, pretty close to their 92 wins.
But they may have been lucky. Their hitting was much better in medium cases than low cases and then much better in high cases. I don't think that reflects some kind of special leverage hitting skill. Their low OPS allowed in high cases could be skill since their bullpen is so good.
In fact, the Guardians and Yankees were 1-2 in MLB this year in lowest OPS allowed in high leverage cases and by a wide margin.
|
Team |
OPS Allowed in High Leverage Cases |
|
Guardians |
0.614 |
|
Yanks |
0.624 |
|
Tigers |
0.652 |
|
Brewers |
0.665 |
|
Astros |
0.677 |
|
Phillies |
0.678 |
|
Padres |
0.683 |
|
Rays |
0.686 |
|
Dodgers |
0.692 |
|
A's |
0.694 |
For the Yankees, equation (1) predicts they would have a .581 pct. and 94 wins, their exact total. So no luck either way for the Yankees.
The Guardians are not likely to hit so much better in high leverage cases in the series because that would mean they would be very lucky and they will be facing the second best pitching staff in high leverage cases.
