No, it does not seem like it. Table below lists all the guys who hit 50+ HRs in a season. Then it shows how many they hit in their first 50+ season and what their season high was before that year. There are many cases like Olson's.
In some cases, there is more to the story. Like Ruth. His 29 was in 1919, still in the so called "dead ball era." Then he hit 54 in 1920. There was also the issue of park effects in Boston. He played there before the bullpen in RF, so it was hard to homer there for lefties. He hit all 11 of his HRs in 1918 on the road and 20 on the road in 1919. And the seasons were shorter in 1918-19 due to the war.
Belle hit his 38 in 1994 when teams only played about 115 games due to the strike. He probably would have hit 40+ without the strike.
Player |
HR in 1st Yr. |
Previous High |
Babe Ruth |
54 |
29 |
Hack Wilson |
56 |
39 |
Jimmie Foxx |
58 |
37 |
Hank Greenberg |
58 |
40 |
Johnny Mize |
51 |
43 |
Ralph Kiner |
51 |
23 |
Willie Mays |
51 |
41 |
Mickey Mantle |
52 |
37 |
Roger Maris |
61 |
39 |
George Foster |
52 |
29 |
Cecil Fielder |
51 |
14 |
Albert Belle |
50 |
38 |
Brady Anderson |
50 |
21 |
Mark McGwire |
52 |
49 |
Ken Griffey Jr. |
56 |
49 |
Greg Vaughn |
50 |
41 |
Sammy Sosa |
66 |
40 |
Ãlex Rodriguez |
52 |
42 |
Luis Gonzalez |
57 |
31 |
Barry Bonds |
73 |
49 |
Jim Thome |
52 |
49 |
Andruw Jones |
51 |
36 |
David Ortiz |
54 |
47 |
Ryan Howard |
58 |
22 |
Prince Fielder |
50 |
28 |
Jose Bautista |
54 |
16 |
Chris Davis |
53 |
33 |
Aaron Judge |
52 |
Rookie |
Giancarlo Stanton |
59 |
37 |
Pete Alonso |
53 |
Rookie |
Matt Olson |
51 |
39 |
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