The table below shows the voting:
|
Pitcher |
1st |
2nd |
3rd |
4th |
5th |
Total |
|
Verlander |
30 |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
210 |
|
Cease |
-- |
14 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
97 |
|
Manoah |
-- |
7 |
13 |
10 |
-- |
87 |
|
Ohtani |
-- |
9 |
7 |
12 |
1 |
82 |
|
Valdez |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
12 |
14 |
|
McClanahan |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
8 |
10 |
|
Bieber |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
3 |
5 |
|
Cortes |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
3 |
3 |
|
Cole |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
1 |
|
Gausman |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
1 |
1 |
Pitchers get 7 points for a first place vote, then 4 for second and so on.
Cease had a higher WAR from BB Reference than Verlander, yet he got no first place votes (I will show Fangraphs WAR later). As a White Sox fan that is a bit disappointing but it means than neither of the two Chicago writers voted for him.
Here is the top 10 in pitching WAR in the AL from BB Reference:
|
1 |
Cease |
6.4 |
|
2 |
Ohtani |
6.2 |
|
3 |
Manoah |
5.9 |
|
4 |
Verlander |
5.9 |
|
5 |
Perez |
5.0 |
|
6 |
Singer |
4.5 |
|
7 |
Cortes |
4.2 |
|
8 |
McClanahan |
4.0 |
|
9 |
McKenzie |
3.9 |
|
10 |
Javier |
3.7 |
At first glance I was surprised that Cease had a higher WAR than Verlander. Cease only edged him in IP 184-175 while Verlander had a much higher ERA+ (220 vs. 180-ERA+ takes park effects and league average into account) and a much lower FIP ERA (2.49 vs. 3.10). FIP ERA is based on only a pitcher's strikeouts and HRs & Walks allowed. So Verlander certainly looks better if we adjust for park effects or fielding.
BB Reference, however, makes some other adjustments. The teams Verlander faced averaged 4.44 runs per 9 IP (this number is park adjusted). Cease faced slightly lesser competition, coming in at 4.26.
But Cease was hurt by his team defense while Verlander was helped. Per 9 IP, White Sox fielding cost Cease .12 runs while Astros fielding saved .44 for Verlander (a swing of .56 runs per game).
The Astros overall had a Total Fielding Runs Above Average of 43 (3rd in the AL) while the White Sox had -72 (15th with the 14th place A's being -43).
Other evidence of the Astros superior fielding include having a higher Defensive Efficiency Rating (the percentage of balls in play turned into outs). They edged the White Sox .719-.688. Also, each team turned 122 DPs even though the Astros had a WHIP of 1.092 and the White Sox had 1.287. The Astros defense faced 1,032 cases of having a runner on first and less than 2 outs while it was 1,130 for the White Sox.
With all of these adjustments, BB Ref has Verlander allowing 37 fewer runs than the average pitcher while it was 41 for Cease. With Cease having 9 more IP that could be about 0.5 WAR (with about 10 runs per win).
Now for Fangraphs. They base WAR on FIP ERA and, for WAR calculations, they adjust it for park effects and count infield fly balls as strikeouts. This table shows the AL leaders in pitching WAR:
|
1 |
Verlander |
6.1 |
|
2 |
Gausman |
5.7 |
|
3 |
Ohtani |
5.6 |
|
4 |
Bieber |
4.9 |
|
5 |
Valdez |
4.4 |
|
6 |
Cease |
4.4 |
|
7 |
Manoah |
4.1 |
|
8 |
Perez |
3.8 |
|
9 |
McKenzie |
3.6 |
|
10 |
McClanahan |
3.5 |
So Verlander is well ahead of Cease here, 6.1-4.4. That might be due to FIP-. That is what Fangraphs calls its FIP ERA when it is adjusted for park effects. Verlander had 63, meaning his FIP was only 63% of the league average once park effects are taken into account. Cease had 75. That probably explains quite a bit of their difference in WAR (I think FIP- does not count infield fly balls as strikeouts since they say they only do that for WAR).
No comments:
Post a Comment