Tuesday, March 15, 2022

WAR shows Donaldson was late bloomer

Josh Donaldson is one of 50 players to have 25+ WAR from ages 27-30. But prior to that he had only 1.2 career WAR. The only guy among the 50 to have less is Ichiro Suzuki, who had 0 (because he played in Japan before joining the Mariners).

Of the 50, only 3 other guys had less than 10 WAR before age 27: Jason Giambi, Hack Wilson and Chase Utley. Giambi and Utley (like Donaldson) went to college and did not get any professional experience until age 21. So that will tend to limit pre-27 WAR.

Donaldson has the greatest differential of age 27-30 WAR vs. previous WAR. Here are the top five:

Josh Donaldson 27.3
Ichiro Suzuki 26
Chase Utley 22.6
Jason Giambi 21.8
Hack Wilson 17.9

There are certainly other late bloomers and it would be worthwhile to check other age brackets. Carl Yastrzemski is the leader in this one with 38 in 2,749 PAs (Ruth is 5th in 2,302 PAs and it includes both 1922, the year he was suspended, and 1925, the year of the stomach ache).

Here is the entire group:

Player

WAR 27-30

Prev WAR

Ichiro Suzuki

26.0

0.0

Josh Donaldson

28.5

1.2

Jason Giambi

25.5

3.7

Hack Wilson

25.3

7.4

Chase Utley

32.4

9.8

Ken Boyer

28.2

11.2

Todd Helton

28.6

14.7

Paul Goldschmidt

25.1

14.9

Robinson Cano

29.0

15.4

Honus Wagner

30.2

17.2

Roger Connor

29.0

17.3

Wade Boggs

33.7

18.0

Ed Delahanty

26.0

18.1

Harry Heilmann

28.2

19.8

Dan Brouthers

25.3

19.8

Rod Carew

29.1

20.0

Billy Hamilton

25.0

20.2

Joe Morgan

32.8

21.3

Ernie Banks

32.0

23.1

Jeff Bagwell

26.3

23.1

Al Simmons

27.3

23.9

Buddy Bell

25.3

24.4

Carl Yastrzemski

38.0

24.9

Miguel Cabrera

28.7

26.1

Mike Schmidt

31.9

27.3

Reggie Jackson

25.5

28.2

Duke Snider

29.3

28.3

Gary Carter

27.0

28.7

Lou Boudreau

25.5

32.7

Ted Williams

37.6

34.1

Ron Santo

25.9

35.9

Cal Ripken Jr.

31.4

37.8

Stan Musial

36.5

38.9

Lou Gehrig

33.5

39.5

Willie Mays

36.2

40.6

Barry Bonds

32.7

41.2

Babe Ruth

35.8

44.0

Rickey Henderson

26.1

44.1

Eddie Mathews

28.4

45.0

Eddie Collins

30.5

45.9

Frank Robinson

25.4

46.0

Albert Pujols

35.2

46.1

Henry Aaron

33.9

46.7

Tris Speaker

28.9

48.7

Ken Griffey Jr.

26.2

50.0

Mel Ott

29.2

52.4

Alex Rodriguez

29.8

55.2

Rogers Hornsby

33.8

57.1

Mickey Mantle

29.3

61.3

Ty Cobb

34.3

63.3

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