From regressions I have done, I estimate winning pct with this formula
Pct = .5 + 1.3246*OPSDIFF
That would give them a .765 pct. or 117.86 wins.
Here is how they did by leverage. POPS is what their pitchers allowed. Data from Baseball Reference.
Split
|
OPS
|
POPS
|
Diff
|
High Lvrge
|
0.802
|
0.649
|
0.153
|
Medium Lvrge
|
0.864
|
0.691
|
0.173
|
Low Lvrge
|
0.901
|
0.665
|
0.236
|
If we break things down by leverage, I have the following equation
Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH
where the LOW, MED and HIGH refer to OPS differential in those cases. That estimates the Yankees with a .670 pct or 112.6 wins.
So their relatively poorly performance in High (and Medium) Leverage situations may have cost them 5 wins.
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