The table below shows the swings for all the deciding games in the world series (WS) and league championships (LCS) from 2007-2016. I did not take into account how good the opposing hitters were, who was pitching at home and how much each pitcher varied in GS from game to game in the given season.
If one pitcher faced better hitters, it would tend to hold down his GS. Maybe pitching at home helps. And maybe some pitchers had a higher standard deviation in GS's in the given season. That could explain part of the swings.
The first pitcher listed is the one who exceeded his average season GS by the most in the deciding game (or fell short by the least). Kershaw has two of the three biggest swings and they are not in his favor. They are both very large in comparison to most swings.
AvGS is a pitcher's average game score for the season. DecGS is their game score for the deciding game. Diff is how much those two differed. Swing is the difference in the differences for each pitcher.
Year | Series | Pitcher | AvGS | DecGS | Diff | Pitcher | AvGS | DecGS | Diff | Swing |
2013 | NLCS | Wacha | 57.4 | 77 | 19.6 | Kershaw | 66.9 | 17 | -49.9 | 69.5 |
2012 | ALCS | Scherzer | 55.6 | 69 | 13.4 | Sabathia | 58.1 | 18 | -40.1 | 53.5 |
2016 | NLCS | Hendricks | 61.2 | 80 | 18.8 | Kershaw | 70.3 | 39 | -31.3 | 50.1 |
2012 | NLCS | Cain | 60.6 | 62 | 1.4 | Lohse | 56.7 | 24 | -32.7 | 34.1 |
2010 | ALCS | Lewis | 55.6 | 76 | 20.4 | Hughes | 52.1 | 39 | -13.1 | 33.5 |
2013 | WS | Lackey | 55.6 | 56 | 0.4 | Wacha | 57.4 | 28 | -29.4 | 29.8 |
2009 | ALCS | Pettitte | 50.4 | 60 | 9.6 | Saunders | 47.3 | 29 | -18.3 | 27.9 |
2015 | NLCS | Matz | 57.8 | 54 | -3.8 | Hammel | 54.0 | 25 | -29.0 | 25.2 |
2010 | WS | Lincecum | 57.0 | 80 | 23.0 | Lee | 60.4 | 59 | -1.4 | 24.4 |
2008 | NLCS | Hamels | 58.8 | 65 | 6.2 | Billingsley | 55.8 | 38 | -17.8 | 24.0 |
2011 | ALCS | Holland | 52.0 | 39 | -13.0 | Scherzer | 50.7 | 20 | -30.7 | 17.7 |
2016 | WS | Hendricks | 61.2 | 51 | -10.2 | Kluber | 60.4 | 34 | -26.4 | 16.2 |
2008 | ALCS | Garza | 52.8 | 75 | 22.2 | Lester | 54.8 | 61 | 6.2 | 16.0 |
2007 | NLCS | Morales | 52.3 | 49 | -3.3 | Owings | 50.1 | 33 | -17.1 | 13.9 |
2011 | WS | Carpenter | 55.4 | 55 | -0.4 | Harrison | 52.9 | 39 | -13.9 | 13.5 |
2007 | WS | Lester | 48.2 | 63 | 14.8 | Cook | 48.4 | 50 | 1.6 | 13.2 |
2009 | NLCS | Hamels | 51.5 | 43 | -8.5 | Padilla | 48.2 | 28 | -20.2 | 11.7 |
2014 | ALCS | Vargas | 52.0 | 63 | 11.0 | Gonzalez | 53.6 | 55 | 1.4 | 9.6 |
2015 | ALCS | Ventura | 53.1 | 59 | 5.9 | Price | 61.8 | 59 | -2.8 | 8.7 |
2010 | NLCS | Oswalt | 60.9 | 53 | -7.9 | Sanchez | 57.3 | 41 | -16.3 | 8.4 |
2011 | NLCS | Jackson | 50.8 | 34 | -16.8 | Marcum | 55.1 | 31 | -24.1 | 7.3 |
2009 | WS | Pettitte | 50.4 | 47 | -3.4 | Martinez | 52.1 | 43 | -9.1 | 5.7 |
2013 | ALCS | Scherzer | 62.8 | 56 | -6.8 | Buchholz | 64.6 | 53 | -11.6 | 4.8 |
2014 | WS | Guthrie | 50.2 | 43 | -7.2 | Hudson | 52.0 | 41 | -11.0 | 3.8 |
2008 | WS | Hamels | 58.8 | 56 | -2.8 | Kazmir | 49.8 | 45 | -4.8 | 2.0 |
2016 | ALCS | Estrada | 57.0 | 59 | 2.0 | Merritt | 61.0 | 62 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
2012 | WS | Scherzer | 55.6 | 54 | -1.6 | Cain | 60.6 | 58 | -2.6 | 1.0 |
2015 | WS | Harvey | 60.7 | 71 | 10.3 | Volquez | 52.6 | 62 | 9.4 | 0.9 |
2007 | ALCS | Matsuzaka | 53.2 | 50 | -3.2 | Westbrook | 49.4 | 46 | -3.4 | 0.2 |
2014 | NLCS | Wainwright | 62.1 | 66 | 3.9 | Bumgarner | 59.2 | 63 | 3.8 | 0.1 |
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