Saturday, November 1, 2014

OPS Wins Baseball Games

A study done by STATS, INC, in their 1998 “Baseball Scoreboard” book showed that the team with the higher OPS at the end of a game had a winning percentage of .852. The study covered the years 1993-1997. Here are the stats they looked at. First the stat, then the winning percentage for the team that had the higher stat in each game:

OPS .852
OBP .824
SLG .820
AVG .804
fewest errors .669
SB per 9 offensive innings .653
HR per plate appearance .653
BB per plate appearance .623
SB% .576
Most strikeouts per 9 defensive innings .543

Now a lot of things could be going on here. But this at least suggests that maybe the most important thing to do is to “out OPS” your opponent. Now you can do this with better hitters or with better pitchers who hold down the opponents (or good fielders who take away hits). OPS comes out higher than AVG. Perhaps there is something to it. Notice it is much higher than any of the SB winning percentages.

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