19 | 73 | ||
20 | 102 | ||
21 | 114 | ||
22 | 91 | ||
23 | 97 | ||
24 | 88 | ||
25 | 163 | ||
26 | 93 | ||
27 | 105 | ||
28 | 112 | ||
29 | 109 | ||
30 | 83 | ||
31 | 141 | ||
32 | 131 | ||
33 | 139 | ||
34 | 137 | ||
35 | 143 |
If we did pairs of seasons and average them (just a simple average), the last two are the best
19-20 | 87.5 |
21-22 | 102.5 |
23-24 | 92.5 |
25-26 | 128 |
27-28 | 108.5 |
29-30 | 96 |
31-32 | 136 |
33-34 | 138 |
I found all the players who had 300+ PAs at every age from 20-35 like Beltre. Then I averaged their OPS+ at each age. Here is the graph with trend line using a polynomial order 2 equation.
Those players were
Sam Crawford
Ty Cobb
Mel Ott
Eddie Mathews
Hank Aaron
Al Kaline
Roberto Clemente
Frank Robinson
Vada Pinson
Ted Simmons
Buddy Bell
Robin Yount
Rickey Henderson
Roberto Alomar
Ivan Rodriguez
Alex Rodriguez
Beltre averaged a 105.18 OPS+ from age 20-30. From 31-35, it is 138.2. So 138.2/105.18 = 1.314. So he has done 31.4% better. Here are the same ratios for the other guys
Roberto Clemente | 1.407 |
Rickey Henderson | 1.109 |
Al Kaline | 1.051 |
Frank Robinson | 1.049 |
Sam Crawford | 1.046 |
Robin Yount | 1.039 |
Hank Aaron | 1.026 |
Roberto Alomar | 0.978 |
Buddy Bell | 0.970 |
Alex Rodriguez | 0.961 |
Mel Ott | 0.936 |
Ivan Rodriguez | 0.923 |
Ty Cobb | 0.871 |
Vada Pinson | 0.852 |
Eddie Mathews | 0.794 |
Ted Simmons | 0.781 |
I also used wRC+ from Fangraphs. I found all the guys who had 3000+ PAs through age 30 and 1000+ PAs from 31-35. Then I took their Old to Young ratio. Beltre is near the top, doing about 33% better at his old age. The average ratio for the group was .953, meaning they did 4.7% worse. There were 1286 players at the young age and 781 of them made it to the old age. Here is the top 15
Ken Caminiti | 1.505 |
Bret Boone | 1.379 |
Roberto Clemente | 1.348 |
Augie Galan | 1.327 |
Luis Gonzalez | 1.327 |
Adrian Beltre | 1.327 |
Sammy Sosa | 1.325 |
Jerry Grote | 1.320 |
Hal Chase | 1.306 |
Frank White | 1.299 |
Mark McGwire | 1.284 |
Brady Anderson | 1.267 |
Tony Phillips | 1.265 |
Willie Stargell | 1.263 |
Ozzie Smith | 1.250 |
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