Longest Streaks Of Seasons With Both 30+ Starts AND 200+ IP

The leader in not a big surprise nor are most of the rest. But two guys might be. They are both in red because neither is in the Hall of Fame

1    Cy Young                 1891-09   19  
2    Warren Spahn             1947-63   17  
3    Gaylord Perry            1966-80   15  
4    Christy Mathewson        1901-14   14  
T5   Tom Seaver               1967-79   13  
T5   Steve Carlton            1968-80   13  
T5   Phil Niekro              1968-80   13  
T8   Robin Roberts            1949-60   12  
T8   Mickey Lolich            1964-75   12  
T8   Don Sutton               1969-80   12  
T8   Mark Buehrle             2001-12   12  

How Well Do OPS And wOBA Predict Team Runs?

Looking at the years 2007-2012, about the same. I used wOBA from Fangraphs. Some details on wOBA are provided at the end of this post.

For 2010-2012, here are the correlations between each stat and team runs per game (so that is 90 teams/seasons)

OPS: 0.95277
wOBA: 0.95058

This surprised me. wOBA definitely looks like it should do better than OPS since OPS is just OBP + SLG and OBP should get a bigger weight. wOBA is fairly sophisticated, providing a different run value for several different events.

In regressions, here are the standard errors on runs per game from each stat

OPS: 0.1364174
wOBA: 0.1394665

OPS is lower, so it is slightly more accurate.

Since OPS doing a bit better is not what I expected, I looked at the years 2007-09 as well,  and the results were just about the same, with OPS coming out on top by a very slim margin. Maybe I did something wrong, so if anone else has done analysis like this and got something different, please let me know.

1.8*OBP + SLG is said to be a good approximation of wOBA. The funny thing is that when I compared 1.8*OBP + SLG to OPS, OPS came in second. See OPS vs. 1.8*OBP + SLG, so I certainly expected wOBA to do better here.

Update July 30, 10:57 amd central time: I used the years 2003-2012. So that is 300 team seasons. Here are the correlations between each stat and team runs per game:

OPS: 0.95584
wOBA: 0.952973
1.8*OBP + SLG: 0.95714

So 1.8*OBP + SLG is better than wOBA. Not what I expected.

There is an interesting discussion of issues like this at Tom Tango's site. See wOBA v Runs / PA, 2003-2012, Team Offense

Here is what Fangraphs says about wOBA, pasted from their site:

"Weighted On-Base Average combines all the different aspects of hitting into one metric, weighting each of them in proportion to their actual run value. While batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage fall short in accuracy and scope, wOBA measures and captures offensive value more accurately and comprehensively.

The wOBA formula for the 2012 season was:

wOBA = (0.691×uBB + 0.722×HBP + 0.884×1B + 1.257×2B + 1.593×3B +
2.058×HR) / (AB + BB – IBB + SF + HBP)

 

These weights change on a yearly basis, so you can find the specific wOBA weights for every year from 1871 to 2010 here."

Teams Having At Least 3 Straight Seasons With A Winning Percentage Under .350

With their loss today, the Astros have a .337 pct. It was .346 in 2011 and .340 in 2012. So they might end up with 3 years in a row under .350. Not many teams have done this. The last to do it was the Mets, 1962-65 (I called up all the teams that had a pct. < .350 using the Lee Sinins Complete Encyclopedia and then pieced togther the ones that had 3 or more in a row-if anyone knows of a team I missed, let me know).

Even if we looked for teams with a pct < .375, the last to do it was the Blue Jays, 1977-79 with .335, .366, and .327. So the Astros are performing at the level of new expansion team these past 3 years.

Here the teams I found with 3 years in a row under .350. The team called the Washington Nationals is defunct. Retrosheet calls them the Nationals and Baseball Reference calls them the Senators.

Team	YEAR	PCT
A's	1919	0.257
A's	1920	0.312
A's	1921	0.346
Braves	1909	0.294
Braves	1910	0.346
Braves	1911	0.291
Braves	1912	0.340
Browns	1910	0.305
Browns	1911	0.296
Browns	1912	0.344
Stl. Browns (now Cards)	1895	0.298
Stl. Browns (now Cards)	1896	0.308
Stl. Browns (now Cards)	1897	0.221
Stl. Browns (now Cards)	1898	0.260
Cardinals	1906	0.347
Cardinals	1907	0.340
Cardinals	1908	0.318
Mets	1962	0.250
Mets	1963	0.315
Mets	1964	0.327
Mets	1965	0.309
Phillies	1938	0.300
Phillies	1939	0.298
Phillies	1940	0.327
Phillies	1941	0.279
Phillies	1942	0.278
Pirates	1952	0.273
Pirates	1953	0.325
Pirates	1954	0.344
Red Sox	1925	0.309
Red Sox	1926	0.301
Red Sox	1927	0.331
Washington Nationals	1893	0.310
Washington Nationals	1894	0.344
Washington Nationals	1895	0.336
Louisville Colonels	1894	0.271
Louisville Colonels	1895	0.269
Louisville Colonels	1896	0.290

Astros Last Or Almost Last In Several Categories

Last in ERA+ with 84. Next lowest is Seattle, with 89.

Last in ERA with 4.96. Next highest is Toronto with 4.35. League average is 4.06

Last in runs per game allowed with 5.37. Next highest is Toronto with 4.84

Last in SO/BB ratio with 1.82. Next lowest is Minnesota at 2.08. League average is 2.51

About tied for last in walks per 9 IP with Cleveland at 3.7. League average is 3.0

13th in SO per 9 IP with 6.8. League average is 7.6

Last in HRs allowed per IP with 1.3. League average is 1.1. Ball park probably hurts. HR park factor of 1.06 from 2010-12. So it allows 6% more HRs. Yet Astros allow 18% more than average.

Last in hits per 9 IP with 9.8. League average is 8.8

Last in WHIP with 1.518. League average is 1.315.

Last in defensive efficiency rating (DER) .672. Next lowest is Detroit with .680. League average is .691

Last in fielding pct with .980. League average is .985. Detroit is 6th in (DER)

Next to last in OPS+ with 84. White Sox are last with 83.

Last in OPS with .669. Next lowest is NY with .678. League average is .727

Most strikeouts with 947. Next highest is Seattle with 853. League average is 761

12th in walks with 264. Baltimore is last with 250. League average is 313.87

Last in runs per game with 3.75. League average is 4.37

Last in TB with 1269 (tied with KC). League average is 1421.67

Next to last in SLG with .374 (NY has .371) League average is .407

Last in OBP with .295. White Sox are next with .303. League average is .320

Last in AVG with .235. NY, Sea, Oak, Min all have .243. League average is .256

Just about average in SBs with 59 (58 is avg). But most CS with 33. Pct is 64%. League average is 73.4%. Minn is last with 62%

Somehow they are just average at grounding into DPs. 11% of the chances

Their position players comine for a WAR of 2.3 and their pitchers have 1.7. So I guess they are just 4 wins above replacement.

One way to judge speed is 3B/(2B + 3B). It is an idea from Voros McCracken. The idea is that you need to be fast to turn extra base hits into 3Bs. Astors have .057 while the league average is .075. Astros are 12th. Seattle is last with .044

Clutch Base Stealing

Here is a link to a study I did in 2006

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2006/7/29/181346/885

The tables are not showing. Here are links to them in the order they appear

http://cyrilmorong.com/MorongStealing1.GIF

http://cyrilmorong.com/MorongStealing2.GIF

http://cyrilmorong.com/MorongStealing3.GIF

http://cyrilmorong.com/MorongStealing4.GIF

James Gentile has a recent post on this topcic at

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/stealing-bases-when-it-counts/

Here is a discussion of the topic at Tango's site from a few years ago

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/stealing_in_high_leverage_situations/

WAR Leaders At Ages 19 & 20 Combined Among Position Players

Harper has a WAR of 1.5 in 63 games this year. If he plays the rest of the season and gets 1.5 more, he would reach 8.2. Machado has 4.8 in 102 games this year. If gets 2.4 more this year he would be at 8.8. Maybe three of the greatest young players ever are out there right now.

Rk	Player	WAR	From	To	G
1	Mike Trout	11.6	2011	2012	179
2	Mel Ott	11.3	1928	1929	274
3	Al Kaline	9.4	1954	1955	290
4	Ty Cobb	9.3	1906	1907	248
5	Alex Rodriguez	8.9	1995	1996	194
6	Ken Griffey	8.4	1989	1990	282
7	Mickey Mantle	7.8	1951	1952	238
8	Vada Pinson	6.7	1958	1959	181
9	Bryce Harper	6.7	2012	2013	202
10	Ted Williams	6.7	1939	1939	149
11	Frank Robinson	6.5	1956	1956	152
12	Manny Machado	6.4	2012	2013	153
13	Jason Heyward	6.4	2010	2010	142
14	Sherry Magee	6.4	1904	1905	250
15	Claudell Washington	6.1	1974	1975	221
16	Travis Jackson	6.1	1923	1924	247
17	Jimmie Foxx	5.6	1927	1928	179
18	Tony Conigliaro	5	1964	1965	249
19	Jimmy Sheckard	5	1898	1899	252
20	George Davis	4.9	1890	1891	272
21	Buddy Lewis	4.9	1936	1937	299
22	John McGraw	4.9	1892	1893	206