I thought this might make an interesting comparison since I belong to a chapter of SABR in Texas (the Austin one or Hornsby chapter). The point is not that Rice does or does not belong in the Hall of Fame, just that Cruz compares so well. Cruz got 2 votes in 1994. Those are the only votes he has ever gotten.
Career PA
Rice-9058
Cruz-8931
Career Offensive Winning Percentage
Rice-.593
Cruz-.611
Highest 3 year OWP
Rice-.698 (1977-79)
Cruz-.687(1983-85)
Full seasons with .700 OWP or better
Rice-2
Cruz-3
Full season means 400+ PAs.
Full seasons with .600 OWP or better
Rice-5
Cruz-8
Cruz had an additional season with 346 PA
Career Win Shares per 648 PA
Rice-20.17
Cruz-22.71
Since it takes about 3 WS to make 1 win in Bill James' system, Cruz was worth .85 more wins per season. See
http://us.share.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/WSperPA.htm
Career Win Shares
Rice-282
Cruz-313
Seasons with 20+ WS (all-star type seasons)
Rice-7
Cruz-8
Seasons with 30+ WS (MVP type seasons)
Rice-1
Cruz-1
Best 3 Consecutive years in WS
Rice-90 (1977-79, 26-36-28)
Cruz-80 (1983-85, 30-29-21)
I have also attemtped to rank players by their value above replacement. I did two lists. One with a TPR or a BFW (from Pete Palmer) of -2 per 700 PAs as replacement level and one with -3. I divided each guy's career PAs by 700. Then I multiplied that times 2 or 3. That result got added to his career TPR to get career value over replacement. Here is the all-time ranking through 2004.
http://www.geocities.com/cyrilmorong@sbcglobal.net/REP.htm
For VAR using -2 TPR per season
Rice-44.8
Cruz-46.72
For VAR using -3 TPR per season
Rice-57.42
Cruz-59.48
Best 3 Consecutive years in TPR or BFW
Rice-10.3 (1977-79, 3.0-4.2-3.1)
Cruz-7.7 (1983-85, 2.8-3.6-1.3)
MVP award shares
Rice-3.15 (tied for 29th, 6 top 5 finishes)
Cruz-.96 (248th, Al Oliver is higher with 1.25, only 1 top 5 finish)
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3 comments:
For a second there I thought you were talking Jr. WOW! That would have been a hilarious comparison.
Spot on!
Also, Jim Rice grounded into an enormous number of double plays--in fact, he led the AL in GIDP nearly every year, over 300 GIDP in his career. And, he was an awful, terrible left fielder, and very slow on the base paths.
Jose Cruz, by contrast, was fast, stole 50 bases a year, grounded into about 100 DP career, and often led the AL in Sacrifice Flies, something Jim Rice rarely did.
I watched both of them play a LOT, since I was young at the time. Jim Rice just always seemed to be swinging for the fences.
Cruz was an intelligent ballplayer--he adjusted to the situation. If the team needed a baserunner, he got on. If they needed an RBI, he got them an RBI. And he was a good if not great LF--he had speed early in his career and used it.
The Astrodome and Fenway flips their stats. If you neutralize by putting Cruz in Fenway during those years and Rice in the Astrodome during those years, Cruz ends up with something like 2700 or 2800 career hits and a lifetime .300 batting average, while Rice's statistics dim accordingly.
Cruz is clearly better than Rice, not just comparable.
Art Kyriazis, Philly
biostatistician, molecular biologist
ajkbiotech@icloud.com
Art
Thanks for reading and commenting on both blog posts. I agree Cruz was better but maybe not faster.
They both had an XBT% of 46% for their careers. Rice did hit 15 triples twice. Pretty good for a right handed batter playing in Fenway.
Cy
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