Sunday, December 5, 2010

Santo Was Valuable Outside Of Wrigley Field

Santo did seem to benefit alot from Wrigley. But what if we tried to estimate only his value in road games? Doing a quick calculation to find his road OBP & SLG from 1960-73, I got .346 & .413. Does not sound that great. But in his time, it was pretty valuable. Here is the relationship from regression analysis between runs per game and OBP & SLG:

R/G =16.55*OBP + 10.56*SLG - 5.15

A team with an OBP of .342 and an SLG of .413 would score 4.93 R/G. The league average in those years was about 4.06. That would give us a Pythagorean pct of .596. Pretty darn good.

I also ran a regression with winning pct being the dependent variable and runs per game and opponents runs per game being the independent variables. Here is the equation

Pct = .515 + .111*RG - .114*ORG

If a team scored 4.93 runs per game and allowed 4.06 per game, they would have a .596 pct. That is how good Santo was just in road games.

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