Moving 3Bman Bregman to 2B might be very unusual for a guy his age

He will be 31 this year.

I had Stathead call up all the seasons when a guy played 100+ games in any one season at 2B from ages 31-35 since 1901.

Click here to see that list.

I also had Stathead call up all the guys who played 500+ career games at 3B thru age 30 since 1901 and combined it with my earlier list.

Click here to see that list.

The only guy I found who played 500+ games at 3B thru age 30 who also had at least one season of 100+ games at 2B from ages 31-35 was Milt Stock.

Stock played 146 games at age 31, with 141 of them being at 2B. Then he played 3 games at age 32 and that was his last season in MLB. He had also played 666 innings at 2B at age 25. Stock's last season was 1926.

So if the Red Sox try Bergman at 2B, it will be very unusual

How did ChatGPT do in answering some trivia questions?

Not very well. It was wrong on some of these or left out parts of the answer or gave answers that made no sense. I also asked Grok2 some of these questions. That was the previous post (it did not do well either). ChatGPT's answers are in red.

Question 1. What pitchers have won the Cy Young award in both the American League & the National League?

 

ChatGPT said Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martínez, Randy Johnson, Clemens, Halladay, Scherzer

 

(but not Blake Snell who is also correct) 

 

Question 2. What players have won the baseball MVP award in both the American League and National league? 

 

ChatGPT said Frank Robinson, but not Ohtani 

 

Question 3. I asked ChatGPT What players have led both the National League and American League in batting average? 

 

It mentioned Ed Delahanty (correct) & Nap Lajoie (wrong). It even listed 1901 as a year he led the AL and NL. 

 

It did not mention DJ LeMahieu or Luis Arraez who are also correct.

 

Question 4. "Which players have led both the American League and National League in home runs in different years?"

It said only two players have done it: Sam Crawford & Mark McGwire 

It left out Fred McGriff & Shohei Ohtani & Buck Freeman who also did it

It also told me "Ohtani has not yet played in the National League or led it in home runs, so he doesn’t qualify for this list."

 

Question 5. "Was there ever a trade in baseball when two players who had already won the MVP award were traded for each other?" 

ChatGPT said: 

"1. Frank Robinson and Milt Pappas (1965)

    Frank Robinson, who had won the 1961 NL MVP with the Cincinnati Reds, was traded to the Baltimore Orioles.
    The Reds received Milt Pappas in return, among other players. While Pappas was a solid pitcher, Robinson went on to win the 1966 AL MVP and helped lead the Orioles to a World Series title that year.

2. Joe Morgan and Dennis Eckersley (1978)

    Joe Morgan, a two-time NL MVP (1975 and 1976) with the Cincinnati Reds, was traded to the San Francisco Giants.
    In the deal, Dennis Eckersley, who had not yet transitioned to his legendary closer role but was a solid starting pitcher and future Hall of Famer, was involved. Though this trade is more remembered for its future impact, both were MVP-caliber players at different points in their careers.

3. Alex Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano (2004)

    Alex Rodriguez, the 2003 AL MVP, was traded from the Texas Rangers to the New York Yankees.
    In exchange, the Yankees sent Alfonso Soriano, who had not yet won an MVP award but was an All-Star second baseman. (This one doesn’t fully qualify as Soriano didn’t win an MVP.)

These trades are rare, given the high value placed on MVP-caliber players. Let me know if you'd like more details on any of these trades!"

After I told it that those answers were wrong it said Joe Morgan was traded for Vida Blue, which never happened.

 

Question 6. Who is the only Hall of Fame baseball player to hit a grand slam off of two different Hall of Fame baseball pitchers in the same month?

ChatGPT said:

The only Hall of Fame baseball player to hit a grand slam off two different Hall of Fame pitchers in the same month is Frank Robinson. In May 1962, while playing for the Cincinnati Reds, Robinson achieved this rare feat:

    He hit a grand slam off Warren Spahn of the Milwaukee Braves on May 2, 1962.
    Later that month, he hit another grand slam off Juan Marichal of the San Francisco Giants on May 26, 1962.

This accomplishment is particularly remarkable given the elite status of the pitchers involved. 

 

That is wrong. Robinson did not even play on May 2, 1962 and he did not hit a HR on May 26, 1962. This link has his game logs for 1962 

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=robinfr02&t=b&year=1962

ChatGPT said:

Apologies for the earlier incorrect information. After reviewing Frank Robinson's 1962 game logs , it's clear that he did not hit grand slams off Warren Spahn or Juan Marichal in May 1962. In fact, he did not play on May 2, 1962, and did not hit a home run on May 26, 1962.

Upon further research, I couldn't find any verified record of a Hall of Fame player hitting grand slams off two different Hall of Fame pitchers within the same month. This specific feat doesn't appear to be documented in available baseball records. If you have more context or specific details about this event, please share them, and I'll do my best to provide accurate information.

  

A very hard question.

The answer is Dave Parker. See my post Grand Slams by Hall of Famers off of Hall of Famers

 

Question 7. What pitcher faced Babe Ruth the most times without allowing a home run?

 
ChatGPT said:

The pitcher who faced Babe Ruth the most times without allowing a home run was Hub Pruett, a left-handed pitcher who played in the 1920s and 1930s. Pruett was particularly effective against Ruth early in his career, often using a sweeping curveball to neutralize the slugger.

In their first 33 encounters, Ruth managed just 2 hits off Pruett, neither of which was a home run. Over time, Ruth's success against Pruett improved slightly, but Pruett is still remembered for his early dominance against one of baseball's greatest hitters.

If you're looking for exact stats or additional details, let me know, and I can provide further information!

 

It is actually Ed Wells. He faced Ruth 71 times without allowing a home run. See the following link

Ruth vs. pitchers

 

Question 8. What two Hall of Fame pitchers gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 (the year Ruth hit 60 HRS) and also gave up hits to Joe DiMaggio in 1941 during DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak?

 

ChatGPT said:

The two Hall of Fame pitchers who gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 and also surrendered hits to Joe DiMaggio during his 56-game hitting streak in 1941 were Lefty Grove and Ted Lyons.

    Lefty Grove (Philadelphia Athletics, 1927; Boston Red Sox, 1941)
    Ted Lyons (Chicago White Sox, both years)

Both of these pitchers had long and distinguished careers, bridging the eras of Ruth and DiMaggio.

That is the correct answer

How did Grok2 do in answering some trivia questions?

Not very well. It was wrong on some of these or left out parts of the answer or gave answers that made no sense. I also asked ChatGPT some of these questions and I will do a separate post on that (it did not do well either).

In some cases I interacted with Grok2 to get it to the right answer. Grok2's responses will all be in red. Anything in black is from me

Question 1. What two Hall of Fame pitchers gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 (the year Ruth hit 60 HRS) and also gave up hits to Joe DiMaggio in 1941 during DiMaggio's 56 game hitting streak?

Based on the information available, the two Hall of Fame pitchers who gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 and also gave up hits to Joe DiMaggio during his 56-game hitting streak in 1941 are:

    Lefty Grove
    Red Ruffing

Lefty Grove gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 and was one of the pitchers Joe DiMaggio faced during his hitting streak in 1941. Similarly, Red Ruffing, who was with the Yankees in 1927, also gave up home runs to Ruth that year and faced DiMaggio during his streak in 1941. These connections are supported by historical records and accounts of their careers and performances during those specific seasons.

Red Ruffing did not give up any hits to DiMaggio in 1941 because he was on the same team as DiMaggio, the Yankees. So he never faced him in a game

You're correct, my apologies for that oversight. Since Red Ruffing was a teammate of Joe DiMaggio on the New York Yankees in 1941, he did not face DiMaggio in games during that season. Therefore, the correct answer to your original question, with the context given, would be:

    Lefty Grove

Lefty Grove is the Hall of Fame pitcher who gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 and also gave up hits to Joe DiMaggio during his 56-game hitting streak in 1941.

What about Ted Lyons?

Ted Lyons is another Hall of Fame pitcher who fits the criteria you've specified. He gave up home runs to Babe Ruth in 1927 and also gave up hits to Joe DiMaggio during his 56-game hitting streak in 1941. Therefore, the two Hall of Fame pitchers who meet your criteria are:

    Lefty Grove
    Ted Lyons

That is the correct answer

 

Question 2. What pitcher faced Babe Ruth the most times without allowing a home run?

The pitcher who faced Babe Ruth the most times without allowing a home run was Walter Johnson. Johnson, a Hall of Fame pitcher for the Washington Senators, faced Ruth 40 times without giving up a home run to him

This link has the box score from a game in 1918 when Ruth hit his first home run off of Johnson

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/WS1/WS1191805070.shtml?

 

Babe Ruth faced Walter Johnson 152 times and hit 10 home runs off of Johnson.

See the following link

Ruth vs. pitchers
 
Thank you for providing the links. According to the data from Baseball-Reference and Stathead:

    Babe Ruth hit his first home run off Walter Johnson on May 7, 1918, as detailed in the box score from the game.

    Over their careers, Babe Ruth faced Walter Johnson 152 times and hit 10 home runs against him, as per the Stathead data.

This information corrects the earlier statement regarding the number of times Walter Johnson faced Babe Ruth without allowing a home run. It seems Johnson did indeed give up home runs to Ruth, but he still faced him numerous times, making their matchups historically significant. 

 

The correct answer to the original question is Ed Wells

Thank you for the clarification. The correct answer to the original question is indeed Ed Wells. According to available information, Ed Wells faced Babe Ruth 61 times without allowing a home run.

Wells faced Ruth 71 times

Thank you for the correction. Ed Wells faced Babe Ruth 71 times without allowing a home run.

Question 3. What pitchers have won the Cy Young award in both the American League and the National League?

The pitchers who have won the Cy Young Award in both the American League (AL) and the National League (NL)

•    Gaylord Perry
o    AL: 1972 (Cleveland Indians)
o    NL: 1978 (San Diego Padres)

•    Pedro Martínez
o    AL: 1997 (Boston Red Sox), 1999 (Boston Red Sox), 2000 (Boston Red Sox)
o    NL: 1997 (Montreal Expos)

•    Randy Johnson
o    AL: 1995 (Seattle Mariners)
o    NL: 1999 (Arizona Diamondbacks), 2000 (Arizona Diamondbacks), 2001 (Arizona Diamondbacks), 2002 (Arizona Diamondbacks)

•    Roger Clemens
o    AL: 1986 (Boston Red Sox), 1987 (Boston Red Sox), 1991 (Boston Red Sox), 1997 (Toronto Blue Jays), 1998 (Toronto Blue Jays), 2001 (New York Yankees)
o    NL: 2004 (Houston Astros)

•    Roy Halladay
o    AL: 2003 (Toronto Blue Jays)
o    NL: 2010 (Philadelphia Phillies)

These pitchers have achieved the distinction of winning this prestigious award in both leagues.

(Grok2 left out Scherzer and Snell)

Question 4. What players have won the baseball MVP award in both the American League and National league?

The players who have won the Baseball MVP award in both the American League (AL) and the National League (NL) are:

•    Frank Robinson
o    AL MVP: 1966 with the Baltimore Orioles
o    NL MVP: 1961 with the Cincinnati Reds

•    Alex Rodriguez
o    AL MVP: 2003, 2005, 2007 with the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees
o    NL MVP: 2009 with the New York Yankees, although technically he won this in the AL, he's often mentioned in this context because he played for both leagues; however, his only MVP in the NL came in 1996 with the Seattle Mariners before the award switch.

•    Robin Yount
o    AL MVP: 1982, 1989 with the Milwaukee Brewers (note: Brewers were in the AL during these years but switched to the NL in 1998)

Please note, while Rodriguez and Yount are sometimes referenced in this context, only Frank Robinson has officially won the MVP in both leagues as defined by their time in each league at the time of winning.

 

It left out Ohtani.

Question 5. What players have led both the National League and American League in batting average?

Here are the players who have led both the National League (NL) and the American League (AL) in batting average in different seasons:

•    Nap Lajoie
o    AL: .426 in 1901
o    NL: .384 in 1902 (when he played for the Philadelphia Phillies before moving to the AL)

•    Honus Wagner
o    NL: .381 in 1900, .352 in 1908, among others
o    AL: .353 in 1912 (playing for the Pittsburgh Pirates who were briefly in the AL before returning to the NL)

•    Ty Cobb
o    AL: .420 in 1911, .401 in 1912, among many others
o    NL: .367 in 1922 (briefly with the Brooklyn Robins)

•    Rogers Hornsby
o    NL: .424 in 1924, .403 in 1925, among others
o    AL: .380 in 1929 (with the Boston Red Sox)

•    George Sisler
o    AL: .420 in 1922, .407 in 1920
o    NL: .346 in 1930 (with the Boston Braves)

•    Eddie Collins
o    AL: .365 in 1914, .348 in 1923
o    NL: .345 in 1930 (with the Boston Braves)

•    Harry Heilmann
o    AL: .403 in 1923, .394 in 1927
o    NL: .344 in 1932 (with the Cincinnati Reds)

These players achieved this feat in different eras and under different league configurations, sometimes due to brief stints in one league after establishing themselves in another. Remember, the context of league changes, like the Federal League's influence, and the brief period where some teams switched leagues, can affect these statistics.

None of those guys are correct. Three players have done this: Ed Delahanty, DJ LeMahieu and Luis Arraez. 

 

Question 6. "Which players have led both the American League and National League in home runs in different years?"

Here are the players who have led both the American League (AL) and the National League (NL) in home runs in different years:

•    Barry Bonds:

o    Led the National League in 1993, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004 with the San Francisco Giants.
o    Led the American League in 1986 with the Pittsburgh Pirates before moving to the NL

•    Mark McGwire:

o    Led the American League in 1987 and 1996 with the Oakland Athletics.
o    Led the National League in 1998 and 1999 with the St. Louis Cardinals.

•    Alex Rodriguez:

o    Led the American League in 2002, 2005, and 2007 with the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees.
o    Led the National League in 2003 with the Texas Rangers before moving back to the AL.

 

These players have uniquely achieved this distinction across both major leagues

McGwire is correct but the others are not. Other correct answers are Sam Crawford, Ohtani, Buck Freeman, & Fred McGriff

 

Question 7. "Was there ever a trade in baseball when two players who had already won the MVP award were traded for each other?"

No, there has never been a trade in Major League Baseball where two players who had already won the MVP award were directly traded for each other. While there have been trades involving MVP winners, they have not been one-for-one swaps of MVP recipients.
 

On June 29, 1972 Denny McLain (AL MVP in 1968) was traded by the Oakland Athletics to the Atlanta Braves for Orlando Cepeda (NL MVP in 1972).

 

Question 8. Who is the only Hall of Fame baseball player to hit a grand slam off of two different Hall of Fame baseball pitchers in the same month?

The only Hall of Fame baseball player to hit a grand slam off of two different Hall of Fame pitchers in the same month is Ernie Banks. He accomplished this feat in August 1955, hitting grand slams off Robin Roberts and Warren Spahn.

A very hard question. But Banks hit only one grand slam in August, 1955. It was off Dick Littlefield, who is not in the Hall of Fame. Banks hit no home runs off of Roberts or Spahn in August, 1955. He hit a grand slam off of Spahn in August, 1959. He never hit one off of Roberts.

The answer is Dave Parker. See my post Grand Slams by Hall of Famers off of Hall of Famers

Grand Slams by Hall of Famers off of Hall of Famers

Below is a post from January 2017. Here are 5 new cases that can be added since then due to more guys getting into the Hall of Fame. 

Aug. 23, 1975 Ted Simmons off of Phil Niekro

Aug. 15, 1983 Mike Schmidt off of Lee Smith

July 7, 1997 Chipper Jones off of Pedro Martinez

Sept. 7, 1985 Dave Parker off of Lee Smith
Sept. 19, 1985 Dave Parker off of Bruce Sutter  
 

Parker is the only guy to do it twice in one month, joining George Kelly as the only guys to do it twice in one year.

 

Now the original post

I emailed David Vincent of SABR (and probably the expert on home runs) if he had a list of cases like this. Below is what he sent me.

The other day I mentioned to a friend that I had been to a game in Montreal in 1997 and saw Chipper Jones hit a grand slam off of Pedro Martinez. As you can see from the list below, the last case was in 1995 (and the last one before that was in 1985). That ten year gap is interesting.

Maybe it has been happening less in recent years or decades as the number of teams expanded, possibly making it less likely for future Hall of Famers to face each other. Now it probably takes time for cases to make the list since it can take years for players to get into the Hall, so that might be the reason why it has not happened in twenty years. Of course, it also depends on the writers and any selection committees that choose players. Roger Clemens, for example, allowed grand slams to Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas. Without a PED issue, Clemens would be in and we would have some more recent cases

Just a few interesting points that I saw without looking too closely. Bobby Doerr did it three times. It looks like no one did it more than three times (Simmons, DiMaggio and Foxx also have three) One case was a pitcher, Bob Gibson (off of Gaylord Perry). Ted Lyons was victimized six times.

07/30/1892 Hugh Duffy off Tim Keefe

08/29/1896 George Davis off Cy Young

07/28/1898 Honus Wagner off Amos Rusie

08/19/1918 Edd Roush off Rube Marquard

05/12/1921 High Pockets Kelly off Jesse Haines

08/17/1921 High Pockets Kelly off Rube Marquard

06/16/1924 Harry Hooper off Walter Johnson

07/28/1925 Rogers Hornsby off Burleigh Grimes

05/07/1927 Lou Gehrig off Ted Lyons

06/15/1927 Al Simmons off Ted Lyons

09/27/1927 Babe Ruth off Lefty Grove

07/25/1928 Al Simmons off Ted Lyons

07/03/1929 Babe Ruth off Red Ruffing

09/17/1929 Kiki Cuyler off Dazzy Vance

08/04/1930 Charlie Gehringer off Ted Lyons

08/14/1931 Earl Averill off Red Ruffing

08/29/1931 Lou Gehrig off Lefty Grove

04/21/1932 Mickey Cochrane off Red Ruffing

06/21/1932 Goose Goslin off Red Ruffing

09/22/1932 Jimmie Foxx off Lefty Gomez

06/27/1934 Al Simmons off Lefty Gomez

09/19/1934 Jimmie Foxx off Ted Lyons

07/18/1937 Joe DiMaggio off Bob Feller

08/01/1939 Bobby Doerr off Bob Feller

09/14/1941 Jimmie Foxx off Ted Lyons

08/04/1946 Bobby Doerr off Hal Newhouser

06/21/1947 Bobby Doerr off Bob Feller

07/22/1948 Joe DiMaggio off Bob Feller

05/21/1950 Joe DiMaggio off Early Wynn

06/07/1953 Yogi Berra off Satchel Paige

04/22/1956 Stan Musial off Warren Spahn

07/30/1956 Mickey Mantle off Bob Lemon

06/29/1958 Hank Aaron off Don Drysdale

07/29/1958 Ted Williams off Jim Bunning

08/29/1959 Ernie Banks off Warren Spahn

07/16/1960 Yogi Berra off Jim Bunning

09/19/1961 Willie Mays off Warren Spahn

08/14/1963 Hank Aaron off Don Drysdale

08/22/1963 Joe Torre off Juan Marichal

08/25/1963 Frank Robinson off Gaylord Perry

05/20/1965 Eddie Mathews off Warren Spahn

09/29/1965 Bob Gibson off Gaylord Perry

09/05/1966 Bill Mazeroski off Phil Niekro

07/02/1972 Willie McCovey off Don Sutton

05/06/1979 Gary Carter off Gaylord Perry

05/07/1985 Gary Carter off Bruce Sutter

06/16/1995 Kirby Puckett off Randy Johnson

Hank Aaron's amazing combination of durability and hitting excellence

Aaron did not seem to miss many games for a good part of his career. And he never seemed to have a poor season until very late in his career. 

He played 140+ games every year from 1955-1970 with at least a 140 OPS+ in each of those years. 16 straight years. And he just missed a 17th in 1971, playing in 139 games with a 194 OPS+ (a 140 OPS+ would occur if hitter was 20% above the league average in both SLG and OBP or 10% better in one and 30% better in the other or lots of other combinations and it is adjusted for park effects as well).

Aaron was in the top 10 in the NL in OPS+ every year from 1955-70 and in the top 5 12 of those years.

So I have compared how Aaron does on stats like this to other hitters. All data is from Stathead and Baseball Reference, except where otherwise noted.

Most seasons with at least a 140 OPS+ & 140+ games.

Henry Aaron	16
Willie Mays	14
Barry Bonds	13
Stan Musial	13
Mike Schmidt	12
Mickey Mantle	12
Lou Gehrig	12
Albert Pujols	11
Tris Speaker	11
Miguel Cabrera	10
Frank Robinson	10
Mel Ott	10

Mays missed 2 seasons by being in the military. So maybe he might have had 16. But even if he did, Aaron would still be tied for first place.

Before 1961 in the AL and 1962 in the NL, teams usually played 154 games, which is about 5% less than 162 (Aaron's career began in 1954 in the NL). So what if we kept the 140 or higher OPS+ and used 133 games played? (which is 5% less than 140)

Most seasons with at least a 140 OPS+ & 133+ games thru 1961.  

Stan Musial	15
Mel Ott	12
Lou Gehrig	12
Babe Ruth	12
Tris Speaker	12
Rogers Hornsby	11
Ted Williams	10
Jimmie Foxx	10
Ty Cobb	10
Sam Crawford	10
Honus Wagner	10

 

No one equals Aaron's 16.

 

Now Musial missed 1 year (1945) due to WW II. So he might have had 16. But Aaron would still be tied for first place. And Musial had an OPS+ in 1943-44 of  177-174 facing inferior pitching. If WWII does not happen, maybe he does not reach 160 in those years.

 

In any event, no one else equals Aaron from the 154 season regime. And at most we could add 2 years to some WWI era guys like Ruth, Cobb and Speaker. Because of World War I, teams only played at most 126 games in 1918 and 140 in 1919. They would not equal Aaron in any of those cases, either.

Aaron's 16 straight seasons with 140+ games played is tied for first place. This list is from The Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia

Hank Aaron	16
Brooks Robinson	16
Pete Rose	16
Johnny Damon	16
Ichiro Suzuki	16
Willie Mays	15
Bobby Abreu	14
Lou Gehrig	13
Billy Williams	13
Sam Crawford	12
Sam Rice	12
Richie Ashburn	12
Nellie Fox	12
Lou Brock	12
Cal Ripken	12
Albert Pujols	12

If Ripken had been able to play a full season in both 1994 & 1995, he might have had a streak of 17 since he reached 140+ from 1996-98 (1994 & 1995 were strike shortened seasons). There might also be someone who got hurt this way by the 1981 strike, when teams played about 108 games.

What if we lower the consecutive season game total to 133? Here is the list from Sinins again.

Sam Crawford	14
Paul Waner	13
Lou Gehrig	13
Doc Cramer	13
Stan Musial	13
Sam Rice	12
Bob Elliott	12
Del Ennis	12
Richie Ashburn	12
Pee Wee Reese	11
Gil Hodges	11
Minnie Minoso	11
Nellie Fox	11

Because of World War I, teams only played at most 126 games in 1918 and 140 in 1919. That made it harder to keep a streak alive. I checked a couple of guys, Cobb and Speaker, to see if they might have had 16 straight years of 140+ games otherwise. But, no, they wouldn't.

I also looked at some other combinations. What about 150+ games played and at least a 150 OPS+? Aaron is tied for first place.

Henry Aaron	11
Willie Mays	11
Lou Gehrig	11
Stan Musial	9
Miguel Cabrera	8
Albert Pujols	8
Mike Schmidt	8
Mel Ott	8
Barry Bonds	7

What about 140+ games played and at least a 150 OPS+? Aaron is first here, although Bonds is hurt by the strike in 1994-5. Teams played about 115 games in 1994 and 144 in 1995. Bonds had an OPS+ of 183 in 1994. But he played 144 games in 1995. So the most we could add would be 1 season to Bonds. Then Aaron would still be tied for first place.

Henry Aaron	13
Barry Bonds	12
Willie Mays	12
Stan Musial	12
Lou Gehrig	12
Mickey Mantle	11
Tris Speaker	11
Albert Pujols	10
Mel Ott	10

What about 150+ games played and at least a 140 OPS+? Aaron is first again.

 

Henry Aaron	14
Willie Mays	13
Lou Gehrig	11
Mike Schmidt	10
Stan Musial	10
Miguel Cabrera	9
Albert Pujols	8
Mel Ott	8
Manny Ramírez	7
Barry Bonds	7
Eddie Collins	7

 

Finally, what about 130+ games played and at least a 130 OPS+? Aaron is tied for first place.

 

Henry Aaron	17
Stan Musial	17
Frank Robinson	16
Willie Mays	16
Barry Bonds	15
Reggie Jackson	14
Mel Ott	14
Tris Speaker	14
Sam Crawford	14
Lou Gehrig	13
Babe Ruth	13
Honus Wagner	13

 

So I did 5 combinations of games and OPS+. Aaron is in first place by himself in 3 cases and tied for first in the other 2. And no one player was tied with him more than once. The Hammer really stands out.

What were the least likely go ahead or game tying HRs in the 9th inning or later in postseason history?

I used the Log5 formula from Bill James and got the data from this Stathead search All: 347 Home Runs in 1903-2024 Postseason – during 9th Inning or during Extra Innings (I had to go through and find the ones that were go ahead or game tying HRs-I hope to create a link with all 152 at some point so if I missed any please let me know).

Log5 is used to predict what batting average or HR% a batter will get off of a given pitcher with adjustments being made for the league average. Here is the formula:

where

p_B = the probability that the batter hits a HR (or HR%)

p_P =  the probability that the pitchers allows a HR

p_L =  the league probability that a HR is hit

I used the %'s from the regular season for the year each event happened. For World Series games I used the MLB average for the league average. For all others I used the appropriate league %.

This table has the least likely cases:

Year	Series	Gm#	Batter	Pitcher	Prob.
2005	WS	2	SPodsednik	BLidge	0.00000
1915	WS	5	HHooper	ERixey	0.00194
1988	NLCS	4	MScioscia	DGooden	0.00300
2016	NLWC	1	CGillaspie	JFamilia	0.00320
1976	ALCS	5	CChambliss	MLittell	0.00387
2006	NLCS	2	STaguchi	BWagner	0.00457
2005	NLDS	4	BAusmus	KFarnsworth	0.00464
1973	NLCS	4	PRose	HParker	0.00541
1988	NLCS	4	KGibson	RMcDowell	0.00619
2006	NLCS	7	YMolina	AHeilman	0.00638

Podsednik hit no HRs in 2005. So his chance is 0. The way the formula is set up, if either the pitcher or hitter had 0 HRs, Log5 predicts a 0 HR%. If he had hit 1 HR in 2005 his chance would still be just .00111 and still the lowest (he was the only player or pitcher with 0 HRs in the year in question).

To see how this works, let's look at Scioscia/Gooden (I started thinking about this again since the Dodgers & Mets faced each other again this year in the NLCS). In 1988 Scioscia hit 3 HRs in 440 PAs (I took out his 12 intentional walks and did so for all calculations). That is 0.00682 or a 0.682%  HR%. Gooden allowed just 8 HRs in 1020 PAs for a 0.00781 chance. The league average was 0.01764. Once all those numbers get plugged into the Log5 formula, we get 0.00300 or a 0.30% HR%.

Scioscia hit a 2-run HR off of Gooden in the top of the 9th to tie the score. The Dodgers won game 4 to tie the series at 2-2. Without this HR, the Mets probably would have gone up 3 games to 1. I noticed at this time that both Scioscia & Gooden each had low HR%'s, making this a very unlikely event but I don't think I knew about the Log5 formula at that time. I recall even mentioning to a Dodger fan that it was incredible to see this.

Gooden threw 133 pitches in that game. That could have been a factor. But Gooden had a high that year of 138 pitches in a game (and did not give up a HR in that game). He did not give up a HR in any of his top 5 pitch count games that year and those all had at least 126. He had 22 starts with 100+ pitches but gave up a total of only 5 HRs in those games.

One more thing about that game: The HR Kirk Gibson hit of Roger McDowell was in the top of the 12 inning and put the Dodgers ahead 5-4. It is the 9th least likely HR here. McDowell gave up just 1 HR in 1988 in 371 PAs.

If anyone is wondering about any particular HR, like Mazeroski or Carter, just ask me in the comments or email me.

One factor here is who has the platoon advantage. So far I have not taken that into account. But if I did, there would be more cases of a pitcher or hitter who had 0 HRs during the regular season, automatically giving a 0 predicted chance. That is because there were a number of guys with just 1 HR during the regular season.

Chambliss hit his HR off of Mark Littell. Littell gave up only 1 HR in the regular season in 1976 in 428 PAs. But he gave up none to lefties in 164 PAs. So if I took platoon splits into account, the probability would be 0. McDowell also did not give up a HR to a lefty in 1988, so Gibson's HR off of him would get a 0 chance as well.

Cortes only gave up 2 HRs in 153 PAs to lefties in 2024. So the Freeman HR chance (which is 0.03942 right now) would probably go down. (Update: It would be 0.01759 if we only used how they each did against lefties and the LHB vs. LHP for all of MLB in 2024 to find the league average).

But the platoon splits are definitely worth looking into. Just eyeballing the complete list of 152 cases my guess is that the vast majority of these HRs will be with the batter having the advantage. So some o the 10 listed here might have been a little more likely than at first glance. But probably some more of the guys who gave up just 1 HR or hit just 1 HR would see their chance become 0.  

 

Update Dec. 1, 2024: Batters had the platoon advantage in 77 of the 152 cases. So the difference was not that great.

There may be other relevant factors like park effects, weather, day/night, how many pitches the guy has thrown, how many times the batter has faced the pitcher. Also, instead of using just that year's data, it might be better to take a 3 year average for these %'s or use Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System which takes into account a player's 3 most recent seasons, among other factors.

Update Dec. 3, 2024:

What if we used the 3 year average for the Scott Podsednik/Brad Lidge in Game 1 of the 2005 World Series? For that I used total PAs and HRs over the years 2004-2006.

Scott Podsednik would still have a very low HR chance, 0.00802 (up from 0). Lidge would be slightly higher at 0.02300 (up from 0.01718). The league average would be about the same, 0.02837 (originally 0.02711).

What does that get us? Another low probability, 0.00648. That would be the 11th lowest, if no other probabilities were recalculated.

My guess is that some of the others in the top 10 would rise if they were also re-figured using the 3 year average and that they could go higher than this adjusted chance for Scott Podsednik/Brad Lidge.

The reason I think so is because an unusually low HR% for the batters and pitchers involved in the 10 lowest cases is what put them there in the first place. There is a good chance that their surrounding years were higher.

Second update Dec. 3, 2024:

There were only 5 cases of a LHB vs. a LHP. The one with the lowest predicted HR% was Hooper/Rixey. Baseball Reference does not have complete platoon splits for that year but Rixey allowed 2 HRs in 1915 and his splits page does show that he gave up 2 to RHBs. So that means none to LHBs and, therefore, Log5 would predict a 0% HR%. Baseball Reference has Hooper with 2 HRs that year. His splits page has 1 vs. RHPs and 0 vs. LFPs.

The next lowest predicted % in the case of a LHB vs. a LHP was the Freeman/Cortes HR. We have already seen how that one was altered. The altered chance would rank as 45th least likely.

Update Dec. 5, 2024:

I calculated the probability for the Scioscia/Gooden HR using the 3 year data (1987-1989). Scioscia's chance rises from  0.00682 to 0.01346. Gooden's rises from 0.00781 to 0.01244. The NL HR% rose from 0.01764 to 0.02038. The Log5 prediction rose from 0.00300 to 0.00820. That would still be the 13th least likely.

I also looked at the HR that Log5 said was the most likely and re-calculated it using 3 year data. That was the Yordan Alvarez/Robbie Ray HR from Game 1 of an ALDS in 2022.

Here are their %'s based just on 2022 along with the AL% and what Log5 predicted

Alvarez  0.06703
Ray  0.04129
AL  0.02822
Log5  0.096285

Now the same thing using 3 year data

Alvarez  0.061662
Ray  0.04129
AL 0.03130
Log5 0.08088

Although it falls to 0.08088, it would still be the 4th most likely.

 

Update Dec. 6, 2024:

I looked at the platoon splits for the Alvarez/Ray HR (which was LHB vs. LHP). In this case the probability predicted by Log5 is 0.04989. It would fall from 152nd (where it was the most likely HR) to 129th. So still more likely than 128 of the 152 cases. It would be in the upper quartile.  I only used one year data for this (from 2022).

Second update Dec. 6, 2024:

I used platoon stats for the Scioscia/Gooden HR. Based on the data for the NL in 1988, this probability would be 0.00423. It would still be the 5th least likely HR.