Annual AL Hitting In Innings 7-9 Relative to Innings 1-6, 1930-2017

All data from the Baseball Reference Play Index. Perhaps this gives us some idea of the impact of relief pitching over time.

For each year I found the OPS, OBP and ISO for the entire league in innings 7-9 and divided that by the corresponding numbers for innings 1-6 (OPSRatio, OBPRatio, ISORatio). Time line charts for each are below. The slope of the trend line for each one is

OPS) -.001
OBP) -.0006
ISO) -.0018

So maybe the strongest downward trend is for ISO.

Then I divided the 88 year period into eleven 8 year periods (I know, that is arbitrary). The table below shows each ratio for each 8 year period and again, it seems like ISO is the one that has dropped off the most. For example, from 1930-37, ISO in innings 7-9 was 3.2% higher than in innings 1-6. But from 2010-2017, it was 11.7% lower.

Anyway, all three stats have generally been in relative decline in the late innings.

Period	OPSRatio	OBPRatio	ISORatio
1930-1937	1.016	1.015	1.032
1938-1945	1.009	1.020	0.982
1946-1953	1.008	1.013	0.994
1954-1961	1.006	1.010	0.993
1962-1969	0.997	1.007	0.972
1970-1977	0.998	1.010	0.965
1978-1985	0.984	0.999	0.950
1986-1993	0.968	0.987	0.920
1994-2001	0.955	0.979	0.906
2002-2009	0.938	0.973	0.877
2010-2017	0.938	0.970	0.883

Here are the correlations between the % of batters faced by relievers and the late to early hitting ratios

OBPRatio) -.686
OPSRatio) -.771   
ISORatio) -.713

So, as the % of batter faced by relievers increases, the OPS in innings 7-9 relative to innings 1-6 falls. The relationship is strong since the correlation is -.771. Squaring that (the r-squared) gets about .59, meaning that 59% of the variation across years in OPSratio is explained by changes in the % of batters faced by relievers. The more that relievers appear, the poorer the hitters do in late innings.

Here are the timeline charts

Cubs & Dodgers in the second half & September

The first table below shows the team stats in the 2nd half. It sure looks like the Cubs had been playing better than the Dodgers, especially when you look at the OPS differential. The Cubs were ahead by .059 (.112 vs. .053). Run differential was a big edge for the Dodgers (127 vs. 27).

Stat	Cubs	Dodgers
W	49	43
L	25	29
Pct	0.662	0.597
Runs	423	307
Opp. Runs	296	280
Differential	127	27
OPS	0.811	0.749
Opp OPS	0.699	0.696
OPS Diff	0.112	0.053

The Cubs had an even bigger lead in Sept. They were 6.5 games better, 52 runs better and .068 better in OPS differential. Yet, the Dodgers easily beat the Cubs in the LCS. The Dodgers also swept their division series while it took the Cubs 5 games.

Stat	Cubs	Dodgers
W	19	13
L	10	17
Pct	0.655	0.433
Runs	147	114
Opp. Runs	114	133
Differential	33	-19
OPS	0.753	0.710
Opp OPS	0.705	0.730
OPS Diff	0.048	-0.020

Trout Has Highest OPS+ of Career (187)

His previous high was 176 in 2015. On August 8th, I suggested that he might be the first guy to reach 200 since 2004 (and only 19th since 1900). He as at 216 then in 68 games played and it looked like, overall, he was going to face below average pitching the rest of the way.

He ended up playing 114 games. I estimated he would reach 200 if he had an OPS+ of 178 the rest of the way (assuming he played in all remaining games-he played in 46 of the Angels last 49 games). But he only managed an OPS+ of about 145 the rest of the way. His lowest for a full season has been 168. So a bit of a slump (for him).

Here are his monthly stats:

Split	PA	HR	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	BAbip
April/March	115	7	14	23	0.364	0.443	0.707	1.151	0.414
May	91	9	22	19	0.297	0.484	0.797	1.28	0.263
July	64	3	10	13	0.315	0.422	0.5	0.922	0.368
August	120	8	27	21	0.315	0.475	0.63	1.105	0.333
Sept/Oct	117	6	21	14	0.237	0.385	0.505	0.89	0.216

He only struck out 14 times in 117 PAs in the last month. Looks like a pretty low rate compared to the other months. Yet his BAbip was very low. He was making contact. Maybe it was weak contact. But he still had decent power, with an ISO of .268 (SLG - BA).

Career Home/Away splits

Probably someone has done this. But I used the BR Play Index and set a PA minimum of 2500 (for both home and away). I unchecked the box that says "Excl. results which are incomplete." So maybe some guys don't get a completely accurate result.

Gil McDougald had by far the worst negative differential. At home he had a .680 OPS and away he had .847 (so -.167). The next worst was -.093. Chuck Klein had the biggest positive differential .214 (1.027 - .813). But there were several guys very close to that. To see the complete list, here is a link to the Excel file

Complete list

The RedSox just committed the only case of illegal lineup reentry in Major League history

This comes from Dave Smith, head of Retrosheet and was posted on the SABR list, reposted with his permission.

"8/25/2017 - Although it was not actually a case of batting out of turn, the Red Sox had an amazing mistake in the 9th inning of their 16-3 loss to Baltimore on August 25, 2017. As is often the custom in such lopsided contests, the Red Sox put a position player on the mound in the top of the 9th. In this case, it was Mitch Moreland, who had played first base the entire game to this point. The Red Sox lost the DH for the remainder of the game and the new first baseman, Hanley Ramirez, entered the game in the 7th spot in the batting order, formerly occupied by DH Chris Young. They made no other changes. Moreland did well in his one inning as pitcher, allowing no runs on two hits and even collecting a strikeout.

The trouble occurred in the home 9th. The first batter was Rafael Devers, batting in the 6th spot. He made an out and the proper next batter was Ramirez. However, Chris Young came to the plate and singled - even though he was no longer in the game! This is the only case of illegal lineup reentry in Major League history. No one appeared to notice - not the umpires or either team. Since it was a 16-3 game with two outs to go, it is likely that Ramirez had not even thought about where he was batting. As for DH Young, he simply followed Devers to the plate as he had all night. The official remedy is to call Young a pinch-hitter for Ramirez, which causes all the official totals to come out right."