Monday, September 30, 2024

Ohtani did win a triple crown. A triple threat triple crown.

Ohtani did win a triple crown. A triple threat triple crown. He led in a(n)

POWER STAT:  (HRs, 54)
ON-BASE STAT:  (OBP, .390)
BASE RUNNING OR SPEED STAT:  Rbaser 

Here is the definition of Rbaser:

"An index measuring runner advancement on balls and strikes, i.e., pitches not hit, including stolen bases, caught stealing, wild pitches, passed balls, and defensive indifference, as measured above or below league average. Originated by Sean Smith and part of Baseball Reference player data."
See A Definition of Rbaser from The Baseball Almanac.
 
This link allows you to rank all NL players in Rbaser. See 2024 National League Value.  You have to click on Rbaser to sort by that stat. You have to do that in the "Player Value" section.

Ohtani had 10 Rbaser. Carroll & Turang were tied for 2nd with 7 each.

Here are the stats I have used in earlier posts to determine triple threat triple crown winners:

Speed (triples, SBs, SB%)

Power (SLG, ISO, HRs, TBs, extra-base hits)

Getting on base (OBP, times on base)

Recently I searched for leaders in XBT% who might qualify. XBT% is the percentage of times a runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double.  

Update 10-1-2024: I calculated Ohtani's basetealing runs (BSR) using the run values from the Baseball Encyclopedia by Pete Palmer. A SB has .22 and a CS has -.35.

Ohtani had 59 SBs and 4 CS. Then 

BSR = .22*59 - .35*4 = 12.98 - 1.4 = 11.58

If another guy had 0 CS, he would need at least 53 SBs to beat Ohtani since 53.22 = 11.66. At 52 SBs, we have .22*52 = 11.44. There was only one other guy in the NL who had 53 or steals, Elly De La Cruz. He had 67 SBs and 16 CS. For Cruz

BSR = .22*67 - .35*16 = 14.74 - 5.6 = 9.14

So the only guy who could beat Ohtani in BSR had a lower one. Therefore, Ohtani led the NL in BSR. I could have used that as his league leading stat for speed or base running. And he would still have a triple threat triple crown.

Related posts:

Triple Threat Triple Crowns (to see all of the past winners)

Newly discovered "triple threat" triple crowns using XBT% 

Ronald Acuna won a "triple threat" triple crown this year (in 2023)

Sunday, September 29, 2024

Kyle Tucker's great half season (Tied for most WAR in a season with less than 81 games played and other high ranks)

Kyle Tucker's ranks in a season with less than 81 games played since 1900 in the AL/NL. Data from Stathead.

Tied for most WAR (4.7)

https://stathead.com/tiny/UdlKU

Tied for 3rd in HRs (23). Among guys with 20+ HRs he has the most walks (56) and is tied for fewest strikeouts (54). He is the only one with 10+ SBs (11)

https://stathead.com/tiny/kZNar

Tied for 7th in walks (56)

https://stathead.com/tiny/DJRuM

Tied for 8th in TBs (162)

https://stathead.com/tiny/xtVrk

Tied for 11th in SBs among guys who had 0 CS

Sunday, September 15, 2024

On this date in 1969 the Mets beat the Cards 4-3 & Ron Swoboda hit 2 2-run HRs off of Steve Carlton who set a record with 19 Ks in a 9 IP game

Click here to see the boxscore. One key play was when Met CFer Tommie Agee threw out Lou Brock at home on a hit by Curt Flood in the third inning. Seems like Brock tried to score from first on a single. All data from Baseball Reference and Stathead.

Of the 6 games that year that Carlton had 10+ Ks, that was the only one when he gave up any HRs.

Click here to see all of Carlton's 10+ strikeout games of 1969

Swoboda's HRs came in the 4th and 8th innings. He was 6 for 46 in his career vs. Carlton and those were his only 2 HRs.

Click here to see how Swoboda did in his career against different pitchers, including Carlton.

Pitchers with 18 or 19 Ks in a 9 IP game are 13-3 all-time.

Click here to see all the 9 IP games with 18 or 19 strikeouts.

Click here to read a story about the game by Richard Cuicchi. Part of the SABR games project.

If all of this seems improbable, just three days earlier on Sept. 12, the Mets won both ends of a doubleheader against the Pirates by a score of 1-0. In both games the only run was driven in by the Mets starting pitcher. In one of those games it was Jerry Koosman and it was his only RBI of the year. He batted .048 in 1969.

Click here to see the game one boxscore.

Click here to see the game two boxscore.

The Mets were the only team to win back-to-back 1-0 games in 1969. See the search Longest streak of consecutive games, in 1969, in the regular season, requiring Wins = 1 and Team Run Differential = 1 and Team Runs Scored = 1, sorted by most games matching criteria

It looks like this is the only case of a team winning back to back 1-0 games in the Stathead database when a pitcher drove in the run in each game (covering the years 1901-24). See  Longest streak of consecutive games, from 1901 to 2024, in the regular season, requiring Wins = 1 and Team Runs Scored = 1 and Team Run Differential = 1, sorted by most games matching criteria

I looked at the box score of the first game in the streak to see if a pitcher drove in the run. If not, I went to the next case. If yes, I checked the 2nd game. There were 5-6 cases when a pitcher drove in the run in the first game. But then the run was driven in by a non-pitcher in the second game.

Also see  September 12, 1969: Mets pitchers drive in all the runs in doubleheader sweep by Bob Wood. Part of the SABR games project.

This was also the only time the Pirates were shut out in back-to-back games in 1969. See 1969 Pittsburgh Pirates Schedule.

One more incredible thing. From August 30 thru the first game of doubleheader on September 19, the Mets went 23 games in a row without allowing a HR. That is the longest streak since 1946. Then there are three steaks of 17 and then three streaks of 15.

Click here to see all such streaks of 15+ since 1946.

Thursday, September 12, 2024

Some stats on how miserable the White Sox offense is: OPS+, OPS in high leverage situations, S0% & GIDP%

The White Sox have the lowest OPS+ in the AL with 76. Next lowest is the Angels with 88. The league average is, of course, 100. OPS+ is OPS (OBP + SLG) adjusted for park effects and the league average. The Marlins have the lowest in the NL with 82.

The Sox OPS+ of 76 is the 25th lowest since 1900 in the AL/NL. Click here to see all the teams at 80 or lower

Here are all the teams below 80 since the year 2000:

Season

Team

OPS+

2013

Marlin

73

2020

Pirates

74

2024

White Sox

76

2004

D-Backs

77

2019

Marlins

77

2020

TEX

78

2019

DET

78

2004

MON

79

2003

LAD

79

2001

PIT

79

2010

SEA

79

So the Sox have the 3rd lowest OPS+ in the last 25 years. And one of the teams lower was in the Covid year.

Right now the White Sox have the 3rd lowest OPS ever in high leverage situations (see Win Expectancy (WE) and Run Expectancy (RE) Stats from Baseball Reference for more on leverage). High leverage situations are "situations where dramatic swings in win probability are possible."

Click here to see all the teams that had under a .600 OPS in high leverage situations.

Here is the bottom 10:

Team

Year

OPS

White Sox

1914

0.532

Cubs

1916

0.538

White Sox

2024

0.552

A's

1945

0.558

Phillies

1942

0.560

A's

1915

0.561

Reds

1914

0.568

Pirates

1914

0.568

Reds

1915

0.572

Dodgers

1967

0.572

Mets

1968

0.572

At .552, the Sox are the worst team in high leverage situations in over 100 years. The last team before this that finished below .600 in these cases was the Padres in 1972 who had .594.

The Sox have the lowest OBP in the AL with .278. Next lowest are the Tigers at .299. The league average is .310. The lowest in the NL belongs to the Marlins at .297.

Yet the White Sox are fourth in the AL in GIDPs with 109. The league average is 98.

They hit into DPs 12.3% of the time there is an opportunity. Highest in the AL. The league average is 10.0%.

This is not because they strike out infrequently. They have the 5th highest strikeout rate in the AL at 24.1%. The league average is 22.5%.

So they are 23% higher than the league avg. in DP rate and 7.1% higher in SO rate

I found each team's ratio to the league average in these stats and then found the geometric mean for each team. The Sox had the highest at 1.14 (bad in this case to be above 1). Then there was a 1.09 and a 1.08. So Sox well ahead of the next worse team. 
 
This table shows the ratio of each AL team for each stat and then the geometric mean of the two (geometric mean of A & B is the square root of A*B-it is a way to keep extreme values from dominating)
 

Team

GIDP Ratio

SO Ratio

Gmean

Chicago White Sox

1.23

1.07

1.15

Los Angeles Angels

1.14

1.04

1.09

Seattle Mariners

0.97

1.21

1.08

Oakland Athletics

1.01

1.10

1.06

Boston Red Sox

0.97

1.12

1.04

New York Yankees

1.12

0.93

1.02

Toronto Blue Jays

1.14

0.91

1.02

Minnesota Twins

1.04

0.96

1.00

Cleveland Guardians

1.08

0.88

0.97

Tampa Bay Rays

0.86

1.09

0.97

Houston Astros

1.09

0.86

0.97

Detroit Tigers

0.85

1.06

0.95

Texas Rangers

0.89

0.94

0.91

Kansas City Royals

0.92

0.84

0.88

Baltimore Orioles

0.63

0.97

0.78

 
The White Sox are clearly the worst this combined rating of DP% and SO%.