Sunday, June 30, 2024

Was Riggs Stephenson a .300 hitter after every career AB?

Stephenson's first year was 1921. He batted .330 that year. This link has his 1921 game logs

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=stephri01&t=b&year=1921

He got a hit in his first career AB. So his average was 1.000. Then he made an out the next time up. He is down to .500. An out his 3rd time up, down to .333. But he gets a hit the last time up and is at .500 after his first game.

In his second game he goes 3 for 4. So if he made an out the first time up he would just fall to .400 for the season (2 for 5). But then he would get hits the rest of the game and his avg would keep going up. He was at .625 after his second game.

With 5 hits now in 8 ABs, he would have to go 0 for his next 9 to fall below .300. In the next 4 games he went 9 for 16. So again, he could not have fallen below .300 at any time yet. The worst he could have done in there would be an 0 for 7 (leaving him at 5 for 15 or .333).

So after 6 games he is 14 for 24. He would have to go 0 for his next 23 to fall below .300.

Over his next 8 games he goes 7 for 25 (so no 0 for 23 stretch in there). He is now 21 for 49 in 14 games. He would need to go 0 for his next 22 to fall below .300.

He goes 6 for 22 over his next 7 games. He is now 27 for 71 in his first 21 games. He would need to go 0 for his next 20 to fall below .300.

He goes 10 for 20 over his next 5 games. He is now 37 for 91 (.407).

I think by now you get the idea that he did not fall below .300 at all during his first year. He finished the year at .330 and was well above .300 after every game that year.

He could not have fallen below .300 during a game only to get a bunch of hits during the rest of the game to get back to .300.

He went 68 for 206 in 1921. If he were to start 1922 going 0 for 21, he would fall below .300. He went 8 for his first 19. He is now 76 for 225 in his career.

He would need to go 0 for 29 to fall below .300. He actually goes 14 for his next 29. He is now 90 for 254 in his career and would now need to go 0 for 47 to fall below .300.

His season avg stayed well above .300 the rest of 1922. After 2 seasons he is 147 for 439. He would have to start 1923 going 0 for 52 to fall below .300.

He goes 15 for 53 in his first 25 games. He is now 162 for 492 in his career. He would have to go 0 for his next 49 to fall below .300. He went 13 for his next 47.

At this point you can pretty much just start eyeballing his game logs and you won't see some long stretch of games with 0s in the hit column

He batted well over .300 every year of his career except 1925 when he it .296 in just 54 ABs and 1934 (his last) when he hit .216 in just 74 ABs. That was his last year and his career avg was .336

It looks like he was at .300 after every AB of his career.

At the following post, BB Ref said that Jimmie Foxx and Dale Alexander are the only players to be a .300 hitter after every at-bat of their entire career. 

Sunday, June 9, 2024

Today is Dave Parker's 73rd birthday. Should he be in The Hall of Fame?

Right now he is tied for 348th place in WAR among position players at Baseball Reference (with Dave Concepcion and Albert Belle, two other guys that sometimes get named as possible Hall of Famers). 
 
By my count there are 176 position players from the American League, National League, Federal League, American Association, Players League, Union Association and National Association in The Hall.
 
He did have pretty good peak value. Here are his top 10 finishes:

1975) 5th (6.3)
1977) 3rd (7.4)
1978) 1st (7.0)
1979) 4th (6.7)

Here is everyone who had 25+ WAR among position players in the NL from 1975-79:

Mike Schmidt  38.7
Dave Parker  31.1
Joe Morgan  30.8
George Foster  29.1
Ron Cey  26.7
Johnny Bench  26.3
Dave Winfield  25.9

Seven players and four of them are in The Hall.

Bill James had him with 327 Win Shares in his original win shares book. That ranked him 118th (tied with Sam Rice). I counted 24 pitchers ahead of him. So that would mean that he was in the top 100 for position players through 2001. Seems good enough to be in The Hall.

Through 2001, Parker was tied for 275th in career WAR for position player at Baseball Reference. So a big discrepancy with Win Shares. 
 
One difference is that BB Ref has him with -14.8 in defensive WAR (it was -9.5 through 1987 after which he DHed alot and I think that has an automatic negative adjustment for defensive WAR). Bill James gave him a C+ for defense, so it seems like Win Shares rates him better there.

Through 2001, James had Parker as the 14th best RFer ever. Seems close, at least, to being a Hall of Famer.

Fangraphs has him at 320th in WAR for position players with 41.1.