Tuesday, July 29, 2025

What happened in 2014? The rise of the 10 strikeout & 2 or fewer walks per 9 IP pitcher

I noticed that Tarik Skubal, Zach Wheeler and Joe Ryan this year so far all have both 10+ SO/9IP & 2 or fewer BB/9IP. Then I wondered how often this has been done for a full season.

So I had Stathead call up all the seasons of 162+ IP with both 10+ SO/9IP & 2 or fewer BB/9IP in the AL/NL since 1900. Click here to see those results. The results were the same if I used 154 IP since no one from before 1965 did it with that IP total.

Sandy Koufax in 1965 was the 1st pitcher with 162+ IP, 10+ SO/9IP & 2 or fewer BB/9IP. The next guy to do it was Curt Schilling in 1998. Then it was done 9 times from 1998-2004 but not again until 2014 and since then it has been done 28 times.

The 1998-2004 period might not be a real trend or turning point since 7 of the 9 cases belong to just two pitchers: Curt Schilling (4) and Pedro Martinez (3). 

But whether that was a trend or not, there were no cases from 2005-2013. Then in 2014 it was done by 4 different pitchers. In 2019 it was done by 6. And again, a total of 28 times from 2014-24. What changed in 2014? I don't think I have any good guesses. Maybe as pitchers innings have been going down they have been throwing harder so rate stats like this have gone up. But I don't know how to figure out if that is the case.

I also wondered if maybe things were trending upwards from 2005-13 that is not seen here if alot of guys were getting closer than before but not quite making it.

So I had Stathead call up all the seasons of 162+ IP with just 9+ SO/9IP & 2 or fewer BB/9IP from 1998-2013. I thought maybe the lower SO standard might capture a trend. Click here to see those results.

There were 11 of these cases from 1998-2004 and 10 from 2005-13. That does not look like an increasing trend. And in the latter period, 5 of the 10 cases were guys with 9.0 to 9.4 SO/9IP. So there were not alot of near misses on the 10/2 criteria. There were no 9.9s & just one 9.8. The next highest was 9.6.  

So that still leaves me with the question: What changed in 2014 to give us 4 of these guys that year and 28 in total since then? The most ever before 2014 in one year was 2 yet since 2014 there have 8 seasons of 3+.

Sunday, July 20, 2025

Players who hit a HR off multiple Hall of Famers in the same game

This was posted by BB Ref. The link itself then has links to the box scores of each game (I also supply the links below with the pitcher involved)


Dave Parker, Ruth, Mantle, Ted Williams, Billy Williams, Jackie Jensen, Rickey Henderson, Eduardo Perez, B.J. Surhoff.
 
Pitchers that appear twice on this list are Dennis Eckersley, Bob Feller and Bob Lemon. 
 
Eduardo Pérez in 2005 — the pitchers were Randy Johnson & Mariano Rivera. (The HR off of Rivera tied the game in the bottom of the 9th giving Rivera a blown save-All 3 of the Rays runs in the first 9 innings were driven in on the Perez HRs and they won 4-3 in 11 innings)
 
B.J. Surhoff in 1998 — the pitchers were Pedro Martínez & Dennis Eckersley. (Two days later Surhoff would hit the last HR that Eckersley would give up in his career-the last 2 were by Surhoff).
 
Rickey Henderson in 1987 — the pitchers were Phil Niekro & Steve Carlton. (The HR off of Carlton was a 2 out 2 run HR and it gave the Yankees a 1 run lead in the top of the 9th but they lost in the bottom of the inning).
 
 
Billy Williams in 1967 — the pitchers were Juan Marichal & Gaylord Perry. (The HR off of Perry tied the game in the bottom of the 9th)
 
Ted Williams in 1957 — the pitchers were Early Wynn & Bob Lemon. (Williams hit 3 HRs in this game, 2 off of Wynn)
 
 
Jackie Jensen in 1954 — the pitchers were Bob Feller & Hal Newhouser. (this was the last career HR allowed by Newhouser)
 

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Today is the anniversary of the "Grich game" when he almost single handedly defeated the Yankees and Ron Guidry in 1979

Click here to go the box score and play by play at Baseball Reference.

Bobby Grich went 4 for 5 (all against Guidry). That included a HR and a 2B with 5 RBIs in a 5-4 come from behind win for the Angels. Grich had a win probability added (WPA) of 1.211, the 10th highest that we know of (and 3rd highest in 9 inning games). Guidry won the Cy Young award the year before while leading the league in ERA. He would lead the AL again in ERA in 1979. This was a home game for the Angels.

Here are Grich's ABs:

1st: Lineout with one out and none on trailing 2-0.

3rd: Single with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out to drive in a run to make the score 4-1.

5th: Single with a man on first and two outs. But next batter makes an out.

7th: Double with runners on 1st and 2nd and one out. Both runners score to make it 4-3.

9th: HR with man on 1st and two outs. Gives the Angels a 5-4 victory in front of 40,739 fans (also in 2 hours 19 minutes).

As mentioned earlier, Grich had a win probability added (WPA) of 1.211, the 10th highest that we know of (using the Baseball Reference Play Index-for games of at least 1.1, the earliest is 1925). Click here to see all those games. Art Shamsky had a game of 1.503 in 1966, which is the best. WPA uses historical data to estimate how much every change in the base-out-score situation changes a team's probability of winning. The later and closer the game, the more a hit increases WPA.

That famous "Sandberg game" when Ryne hit two clutch HRs off of Bruce Sutter is 42nd with 1.063. I have written about that game. It was impressive, but Sutter was no longer in is prime like Guidry was in 1979. Grich's game is far better. See my post from a few years ago Where Does "The Sandberg Game" Rank In WPA? I explain how hitting a HR off of Sutter was not especially hard at that point in his career.

Guidry as well rested coming into the game. He went 6 innings on July 10th, so he was not over worked. He did face 38 batters in this game, including 10 Ks and 2 BBs. So he could have easily thrown over 100 pitches.

He faced Grich for the 5th time that game in the 9th inning. Guidry's OPS allowed that year when facing batters for the 4th time or more in a game was .863. Pretty high. But the year before it was just .334 and the year after it was .627. So Guidry was not necessarily going to have problems in this situation. In 1977 it was .739

Here is what all AL pitchers allowed facing batters for the 4th time or more in a game in from 1977-80 with the league average OPS for all PAs after it in parentheses.

1977: .746 (.735)
1978: .719 (.711)
1979: .765 (.743)
1980: .766 (.731)

So batters did somewhat better facing a pitcher for the 4th time or more, but in the two previous years, not by much. Yes, Guidry faced Grich for the 5th time in the 9th. But he was the Cy Young award winner the previous year (with a 1.74 ERA). So it is not surprising a manager would stick with him.

Rich Gossage, one of the Yankees' best relievers, worked 3.2 innings the day before and another good righty reliever, Ron Davis had pitched 2.1. Davis also pitched on July 13th. Looking at the Yankee roster, those guys seem to have been the best possible options.

Grich was a righty and Guidry was a lefty. But Guidry did not get hit that hard by righties. Here are his HRs allowed divided by PAs for the years 1977-80:

1977: 9/606
1978: 11/757
1979: 17/776
1980: 12/729

So a manager would not have worried too much about Guidry having to face a righty.

Here is the OPS Guidry allowed vs. righties:

1977: .629
1978: .561
1979: .667
1980: .724

Here is the OPS Guidry allowed during innings 7-9:

1977: .677
1978: .428
1979: .755
1980: .659

Again, no big indicators that it would be a problem to leave Guidry in. Grich did hit 30 HRs that year but before that he had never hit 19. He did have 18 HRs in 358 PAs thru July 14, which is a pretty good total.

Here are his OPS vs. lefties:

1976: .794
1977: .807 (in only 50 PAs, he was hurt)
1978: .796
1979: .909 (but it was .900 vs. righties)
1980: .547

So it looks like there would have been no reason for a manager to especially fear Grich when facing a lefty. Good, but not devastating numbers.

Update 7-16-18: Grich had only faced Guidry 7 times before this game in his career and only once before that season. Grich was 2 for 7 with a single, a double and 3 strikeouts. Sandberg had faced Sutter 12 times including 4 times that season.

Update 7-17-25: It looks like only 2 guys ever had 4+ hits & 8+ TBs in a game vs. Guidry. I checked all such games vs. Yankees from 1975-88. The link below shows all of those games and these were the only 2 I found among them when a batter had had 4+ hits & 8+ TBs in a game vs. Guidry. 

Grich 7-15-1979 
George Bell 8-3-1983

For single games, from 1975 to 1988, Against NYY, in the regular season, requiring Hits >= 4 and Total Bases >= 8, sorted by descending Home Runs.

Update 7-17-25: Grich's teammates went 7 for 31 in the game against Guidry, just a .226 AVG with 1 2B and 2 BBs. So Grich had half of the Angels 16 TBs in the game. 

Saturday, July 5, 2025

Aaron Judge had a 1.259 OPS in a 200 game span from 4-26-24 to 6-13-25. Where does that rank since 2005?

First and it is .093 higher than anyone else's best 200 game span. I am starting with 2005 to be in the post Barry Bonds era (2004 was his last great season).

Here are the top 200 game spans since 2005 that I found using Stathead.

Judge 1.259   (4/26/24 to 6/13/25)
Pujols 1.166  (2008-9)
Yelich 1.134  (2018-20) 
Cabrera 1.127  (2012-13)
Judge 1.123   (4/20/22 to 8/2/23)
Trout 1.115  (2018-9)
Chipper Jones 1.104  (2006-8)
Jose Bautista 1.103  (2010-11)
Pujols 1.102  (2005-6) 


Many of these players have more than one span of 200 games with a 1.100+ OPS. They mostly overlap and the ones listed above are the highest for each guy, accept for Judge and Pujols who each have two completely separate 200 game spans. 

The cases listed above are the only ones since 2005 of 1.100 or higher. Pujols had an additional span of 1.108 during 2003-4. 

Friday, May 30, 2025

Players with a 200 OPS+ or higher in a four year period with 1,600+ PAs (Aaron Judge might join five all-time greats on this list this year)

I used Stathead from Baseball Reference to get all the data. 

By setting age boundaries it was easy to find all the cases. The first bracket was 18-21. Then I went all the way up to 39-42.

The only players to accomplish this are: 

Babe Ruth
Rogers Hornsby
Ted Williams
Mickey Mantle
Barry Bonds
Aaron Judge
 
The table below lists all the cases. For some players there are overlapping periods. The cases in red bold are separate, non-overlapping periods. Ruth has 4 completely separate periods when he reached a 200 OPS+ (not surprising since his career OPS+ was 206, the highest ever-Ted Williams is second with 191).
 

Player

Ages

OPS+

Babe Ruth

22-25

222

Babe Ruth

23-26

231

Babe Ruth

24-27

226

Babe Ruth

25-28

231

Babe Ruth

26-29

223

Babe Ruth

27-30

201

Babe Ruth

28-31

212

Babe Ruth

29-32

208

Babe Ruth

30-33

204

Babe Ruth

31-34

213

Babe Ruth

32-35

209

Babe Ruth

33-36

207

Babe Ruth

34-37

206

Babe Ruth

35-38

203

Rogers Hornsby

25-28

202

Rogers Hornsby

26-29

208

Ted Williams

27-30

200

Ted Williams

35-38

204

Mickey Mantle

23-26

200

Barry Bonds

34-37

221

Barry Bonds

35-38

236

Barry Bonds

36-39

256

Barry Bonds

37-40

252

Barry Bonds

38-41

217

Aaron Judge

30-33

211

 
Williams went over 200 in both 1941 & 42 (when he was 22 & 23) and in 1946 & 47 (when he was 27 & 28). But he was in the military from 1943-45, so he lost the chance to achieve this more often.
 
Starting at age 36, Barry Bonds had 259-268-231-263. That allows him to have 4 year periods that begin before then and continue afterwards. At age 40 he only played 14 games but he had enough PAs in his earlier years to still reach 1600.
 
Judge has played 476 games so far from 2022-25 (with 2106 PAs so far). The Yankees have 107 games left. If Judge played in all of them, he would have 583 games played over the periods. He already has 2106 PAs so he easily qualifies.
 
That means he has played about 81.6% of the games so far for this period and has 18.4% left. Suppose he has a 151 OPS+ the rest of this season. What will his 4 year OPS+ be?
 
211*.816 + 151*.184 = 199.988
 
So that would get him very close (151.1 will get him over 200). He has a career 177 OPS+ so 151 the rest of this season is a strong possibility (it is better to weight by PAs and not games but this is probably a good estimate). Also, since 2005, the highest OPS+ by any other player for just one season with 400+ PA is 198, done by both Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. Judge could have a 4 year stretch better than that.
 
One guy who came close was Ty Cobb. But his best 4 year period was 199.