Friday, January 3, 2025

Hank Aaron's amazing combination of durability and hitting excellence

Aaron did not seem to miss many games for a good part of his career. And he never seemed to have a poor season until very late in his career. 

He played 140+ games every year from 1955-1970 with at least a 140 OPS+ in each of those years. 16 straight years. And he just missed a 17th in 1971, playing in 139 games with a 194 OPS+ (a 140 OPS+ would occur if hitter was 20% above the league average in both SLG and OBP or 10% better in one and 30% better in the other or lots of other combinations and it is adjusted for park effects as well).

Aaron was in the top 10 in the NL in OPS+ every year from 1955-70 and in the top 5 12 of those years.

So I have compared how Aaron does on stats like this to other hitters. All data is from Stathead and Baseball Reference, except where otherwise noted.

Most seasons with at least a 140 OPS+ & 140+ games.

Henry Aaron 16
Willie Mays 14
Barry Bonds 13
Stan Musial 13
Mike Schmidt 12
Mickey Mantle 12
Lou Gehrig 12
Albert Pujols 11
Tris Speaker 11
Miguel Cabrera 10
Frank Robinson 10
Mel Ott 10

Mays missed 2 seasons by being in the military. So maybe he might have had 16. But even if he did, Aaron would still be tied for first place.

Before 1961 in the AL and 1962 in the NL, teams usually played 154 games, which is about 5% less than 162 (Aaron's career began in 1954 in the NL). So what if we kept the 140 or higher OPS+ and used 133 games played? (which is 5% less than 140)

Most seasons with at least a 140 OPS+ & 133+ games thru 1961.  

Stan Musial 15
Mel Ott 12
Lou Gehrig 12
Babe Ruth 12
Tris Speaker 12
Rogers Hornsby 11
Ted Williams 10
Jimmie Foxx 10
Ty Cobb 10
Sam Crawford 10
Honus Wagner 10
 
No one equals Aaron's 16.
 
Now Musial missed 1 year (1945) due to WW II. So he might have had 16. But Aaron would still be tied for first place. And Musial had an OPS+ in 1943-44 of  177-174 facing inferior pitching. If WWII does not happen, maybe he does not reach 160 in those years.
 
In any event, no one else equals Aaron from the 154 season regime. And at most we could add 2 years to some WWI era guys like Ruth, Cobb and Speaker. Because of World War I, teams only played at most 126 games in 1918 and 140 in 1919. They would not equal Aaron in any of those cases, either.

Aaron's 16 straight seasons with 140+ games played is tied for first place. This list is from The Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia

Hank Aaron         16
Brooks Robinson 16
Pete Rose            16
Johnny Damon   16
Ichiro Suzuki       16
Willie Mays          15
Bobby Abreu        14
Lou Gehrig          13
Billy Williams      13
Sam Crawford    12
Sam Rice             12
Richie Ashburn  12
Nellie Fox           12
Lou Brock           12
Cal Ripken          12
Albert Pujols      12

If Ripken had been able to play a full season in both 1994 & 1995, he might have had a streak of 17 since he reached 140+ from 1996-98 (1994 & 1995 were strike shortened seasons). There might also be someone who got hurt this way by the 1981 strike, when teams played about 108 games.

What if we lower the consecutive season game total to 133? Here is the list from Sinins again.

Sam Crawford        14
Paul Waner           13
Lou Gehrig            13
Doc Cramer           13
Stan Musial           13
Sam Rice                12
Bob Elliott             12
Del Ennis               12
Richie Ashburn     12
Pee Wee Reese   11
Gil Hodges           11
Minnie Minoso   11
Nellie Fox             11

Because of World War I, teams only played at most 126 games in 1918 and 140 in 1919. That made it harder to keep a streak alive. I checked a couple of guys, Cobb and Speaker, to see if they might have had 16 straight years of 140+ games otherwise. But, no, they wouldn't.

I also looked at some other combinations. What about 150+ games played and at least a 150 OPS+? Aaron is tied for first place.

Henry Aaron 11
Willie Mays 11
Lou Gehrig 11
Stan Musial 9
Miguel Cabrera 8
Albert Pujols 8
Mike Schmidt 8
Mel Ott 8
Barry Bonds 7

What about 140+ games played and at least a 150 OPS+? Aaron is first here, although Bonds is hurt by the strike in 1994-5. Teams played about 115 games in 1994 and 144 in 1995. Bonds had an OPS+ of 183 in 1994. But he played 144 games in 1995. So the most we could add would be 1 season to Bonds. Then Aaron would still be tied for first place.

Henry Aaron 13
Barry Bonds 12
Willie Mays 12
Stan Musial 12
Lou Gehrig 12
Mickey Mantle 11
Tris Speaker 11
Albert Pujols 10
Mel Ott 10

What about 150+ games played and at least a 140 OPS+? Aaron is first again.
 
Henry Aaron 14
Willie Mays 13
Lou Gehrig 11
Mike Schmidt 10
Stan Musial 10
Miguel Cabrera 9
Albert Pujols 8
Mel Ott 8
Manny Ramírez 7
Barry Bonds 7
Eddie Collins 7
 
Finally, what about 130+ games played and at least a 130 OPS+? Aaron is tied for first place.
 
Henry Aaron 17
Stan Musial 17
Frank Robinson 16
Willie Mays 16
Barry Bonds 15
Reggie Jackson 14
Mel Ott 14
Tris Speaker 14
Sam Crawford 14
Lou Gehrig 13
Babe Ruth 13
Honus Wagner 13
 
So I did 5 combinations of games and OPS+. Aaron is in first place by himself in 3 cases and tied for first in the other 2. And no one player was tied with him more than once. The Hammer really stands out.

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