Sunday, July 14, 2013

Trout's Relative Slugging Percentage For Ages 20-21 Near An All-Time High

Last year his SLG was .564 while the league had .409. This year he has .568 and the league has .411. So he is about 38% above the league average. That gives him a relative score of 138 (since each year his SLG divided by the league SLG is about 1.38 and multiplied by 100 you get 138).

The table below shows the top 20 in relative SLG for ages 20-21 with at least 800 plate appearances.

The 138 would put him in 5th place and in some very great company. He also has 523 total bases combined in 2012-13. That is already the 16th best total at ages 20-21. I have him on a pace to get 368 this year. Then his total for the two years would be 683, an all-time high. Here is the top 16:
Ted Williams 677
Alex Rodriguez 670
Al Kaline 648
Mel Ott 647
Frank Robinson 642
Vada Pinson 638
Orlando Cepeda 625
Eddie Mathews 599
Ken Griffey 576
Buddy Lewis 567
Ty Cobb 559
Cesar Cedeno 543
Jimmie Foxx 542
Tony Conigliaro 539
Hank Aaron 534
Mike Trout 523
It should not be too hard for him to reach Cepeda. He would just need to SLG about .362. Slugging about .444 would get him to Kaline. He needs to slug about .547 to tie Williams, assuming he plays every game and gets about the same ABs per game he has so far this year.


David said...

Of course, his stadium is not exactly hitter-friendly. I'd be interested to see what it was like park-adjusted.

Cyril Morong said...

Good point. So he could be even higher.

The Bill James Handbook gives Angels Stadium a HR factor of 81 for the years 2010-2012. I think that means that the HRs per AB for RHB is only 81% of what it is for the league average (or 19% less). So that could factor in.

I don't know where there is a SLG park factor. But last year the Angels batters slugged .428 at home and .437 on the road.

Usually teams do better at home. For all of the AL last year, it was .423 at home and .399 on the road.

The Angels pitchers allowed a .367 SLG at home and .440 on the road. Yes, pitchers usually do better at home, but for the whole league it was .397 home and .421 road. The Angels had a much bigger advantage than normal at home.

So this points to a tough park for Trout. Thanks for dropping by and commenting

Cyril Morong said...

So overall, the Angels hitters have a deficit of .035 compared to normal and the pitchers have and advantage of .097.

This year it is not as big. Hitters deficit is .011, pitchers adv is .015.

Cyril Morong said...

If you add 10 points to SLG is relative SLG goes up about 2.5 point. So it would be 140.5 or so. Not sure how much of an adjustment to make, though.

Cyril Morong said...

Lat year Trout slugged .586 at home and .544 on the road.

This year it is home .594, road .543.

So the 2 years combined are probably close home/road.

Actually it is .568 homne, .563 road.

David said...

No problem dropping by! I've followed your RSS for years. I just don't always have anything interesting to say!

Cyril Morong said...

It looks like Fangraphs bases its WAR on FIP ERA and it is also park adjusted (or park neutral). Below is the top 25 in career WAR from Fangraphs (but Baseball Reference does say they take fielding support into account when calculating WAR)

Roger Clemens 139.9
Walter Johnson 125.9
Cy Young 125.6
Greg Maddux 114.3
Randy Johnson 110.3
Nolan Ryan 106.5
Bert Blyleven 105.4
Gaylord Perry 104.1
Steve Carlton 103.2
Pete Alexander 98.2
Tom Seaver 97.7
Lefty Grove 93.3
Bob Gibson 91.4
Christy Mathewson 88.9
Fergie Jenkins 88.3
Pedro Martinez 86.8
Don Sutton 85.8
Curt Schilling 83.5
Mike Mussina 82.3
Warren Spahn 80.9
Phil Niekro 80.4
Kid Nichols 79.7
John Smoltz 78.4
Robin Roberts 78.2
Tommy John 75.5