Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Has Jake Peavy Had Bad Luck This Year?

His ERA is 5.19. The league average is 3.87. Yet here are his AVG-OBP-SLG allowed


The league averages are .252-.319-.392

So he appears to be much better than the league average in OBP and SLG allowed.

He is getting hit pretty hard with runners on base (ROB). Here are his AVG-OBP-SLG allowed in those cases


Now with runners in scoring position (RISP)


It is not the case that he can't pitch in the clutch. For his entire career, his AVG-OBP-SLG are .233-.271-.336. With ROB, they are .235-.275-.313 and with RISP they are .240-.283-.303.

Fangraphs shows his fielding independent ERA at 3.06. That is a stat that tries to predict a pitcher's ERA just based on strikeouts, walks and HRs. His xFIP ERA is 3.49. That makes a further correction by giving all pitchers the same HR rate on flyballs (or something like that). They have an even more sophisticated stat called SIERA which projects him to have 3.57. Anyway you look at it, his actual ERA of 5.19 is very unlucky.

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