Sunday, August 1, 2010

The Rays Are Only Good In "Clutch" Situations

They have the second best record in baseball. But it looks like that is only because they are especially good in "clutch" situations. The table below shows the OBP & SLG by their hitters and the OBP & SLG allowed by be their pitchers.

They have a solid edge over their opponents in OBP (.338 vs. .304). But they have almost no power edge, since they only out-slug their opponents .406-.402. Then they have a solid but not great edge in OBP with no runners on (.324-.304). The incredible thing is that they are out-slugged by their opponents with no runners on, .399-.414.

But notice what happens with runners on. They have big edges in both OBP (.048) and SLG (.027). The edges only get alot bigger with runners in scoring position (RISP). Their OBP edge grows to .069 while their SLG edge is .072. They are no slouches in close and late situations, either. Their OBP edge is .080 and their SLG edge is .071. The Rays may have discovered the secret not only to clutch hitting, but clutch pitching as well.

The next table shows where the Rays rank in the AL in the differential of what I will simply call OPS*. It is 1.8*OBP + SLG. Most analysts acknowledge that OBP is more important than SLG and a weight of 1.8 is often used. This table shows where the Rays rank in all situations.

All Situations

With no runners on, they rank fairly low.

With No Runners On

This does not look very impressive. But the next table shows the rankings with runners on base and they are well ahead of everyone else.

With Runners On Base

They are equally impressive with RISP.

With Runners In Scoring Position

They are also first in close and late situations.

Close And Late Situations


Anonymous said...

Fascinating! Love your insights Cy..

Cyril Morong said...

Glad you liked it. Thanks for reading my blog.

Richard Cooper said...

Go Rays! (Very interesting stats.)

Cyril Morong said...


Thanks! Glad you dropped by. Hope everything is going okay for you. The Rays are now tied for first.