Friday, October 23, 2009

Will Barry Larkin Get Elected To The Hall Of Fame?

This is being discussed at Baseball Think Factory now. Click on Red Reporter: JinAZ: A HOF Case for Barry Larkin. I sure hope he gets elected. Sean Smith's Wins Above Replacement Rankings have him at 58th all time. Seems like a no brainer.

But what do the voters like? I created two models earlier this year. One is called Predicting Who Makes The Hall Of Fame Using A Logit Model. It gives him a probability of only about 17% of making it. The model took into account career average, number of 100 RBI seasons, all-star games, PAs, MVP awards, world series performance, getting 3000 hits and being a catcher.

The other model was called What Determines Vote Percentage In The First Year Of Hall Of Fame Eligibility? (Part 2). It said it would be 34.6% for Larkin. It took into account the same things as above plus getting 500 HRs, getting 500 SBs, gold gloves (but not being a catcher).

I sure hope my models are wrong. But this analysis was based on what the voters did from 1990-2009.

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