Monday, September 15, 2014

Are There Clutch Base Stealers?

This is something I wrote for "Beyond The  Box Score" In 2006. Click here to read it

Saturday, September 13, 2014

Players Who Had An OPS+ Of 150 Or Higher At Ages 20, 21, And 22




Player  OPS+ Year Age
Mel Ott 165 1929 20
Mel Ott 150 1930 21
Mel Ott 151 1931 22
Mike Trout 168 2012 20
Mike Trout 179 2013 21
Mike Trout 164 2014 22
Ted Williams 160 1939 20
Ted Williams 161 1940 21
Ted Williams 235 1941 22
Ty Cobb 167 1907 20
Ty Cobb 169 1908 21
Ty Cobb 193 1909 22


Trout will have to do very poorly the rest of the way to fall below 150 this year since the season is nearly over.

Even the list of guys with just two 150 or higher seasons is impressive. The only guys since 1900 not in the Hall of Fame are Cedeno and Pujols, who will make it.



Player  OPS+ Year Age
Abner Dalrymple 151 1878 20
Abner Dalrymple 160 1880 22
Albert Pujols 151 2002 22
Albert Pujols 157 2001 21
Cesar Cedeno 152 1973 22
Cesar Cedeno 162 1972 21
Eddie Mathews 171 1953 21
Eddie Mathews 172 1954 22
Fred Carroll 150 1886 21
Fred Carroll 150 1887 22
Jimmie Foxx 161 1930 22
Jimmie Foxx 173 1929 21
Mickey Mantle 158 1954 22
Mickey Mantle 162 1952 20
Mike Tiernan 152 1888 21
Mike Tiernan 159 1889 22
Pete Browning 178 1883 22
Pete Browning 223 1882 21
Rogers Hornsby 151 1916 20
Rogers Hornsby 169 1917 21
Ross Barnes 185 1871 21
Ross Barnes 211 1872 22
Sam Crawford 153 1902 22
Sam Crawford 167 1901 21
Stan Musial 151 1942 21
Stan Musial 177 1943 22
Tris Speaker 151 1909 21
Tris Speaker 170 1910 22

Friday, September 12, 2014

Is Warm Weather Hitting What It Used To Be?

The table below shows OPS by months for each of the last two years in both leagues.


2014
AL OPS
NL OPS
April/March
0.716
0.695
May
0.713
0.710
June
0.715
0.682
July
0.711
0.693
August
0.690
0.696
Sept/Oct
0.705
0.696



2013
AL OPS
NL OPS
April/March
0.733
0.704
May
0.737
0.706
June
0.717
0.711
July
0.713
0.699
August
0.729
0.704
Sept/Oct
0.717
0.695


I always assumed that June, July and August would normally be higher than the rest of the year. But the last two years don't look that way. So I wondered what the long term trends were.

The table below shows how different these three months were in percentage terms compared to the entire season in OPS for the AL. These are 10 year averages, with 1974-1983 being a nine year average not using 1981 due to the strike.


Year
June
July
August
1914-1923
1.36%
0.65%
-0.13%
1924-1933
2.13%
2.62%
-2.10%
1934-1943
1.70%
2.28%
-0.37%
1944-1953
0.37%
1.51%
0.29%
1954-1963
1.05%
1.61%
-0.67%
1964-1973
1.26%
1.51%
-0.14%
1974-1983*
0.50%
1.09%
-0.15%
1984-1993
0.90%
1.03%
0.61%
1994-2003
0.70%
0.33%
0.09%
2004-2013
0.58%
0.38%
1.02%


From 1924-1933, OPS in July was 2.62% higher than the entire season OPS, on average. Notice neither of the last two periods are even .5% higher. Why any of these changes have happened, I don't know. Now the NL.


Year
June
July
August
1914-1923
1.09%
1.18%
-2.35%
1924-1933
3.30%
1.46%
-2.37%
1934-1943
1.63%
1.37%
-0.22%
1944-1953
1.21%
1.50%
-0.71%
1954-1963
0.71%
-0.05%
-0.25%
1964-1973
1.05%
1.88%
0.84%
1974-1983*
1.06%
0.95%
-0.66%
1984-1993
1.42%
0.13%
-0.64%
1994-2003
1.03%
0.06%
-0.36%
2004-2013
-0.59%
0.96%
1.91%