Friday, January 30, 2026

The 2026 Dodgers will have 3 of the top 10 hitters in OPS+ from 2021-25

I used Stathead from Baseball Reference to call up the top 10s in OPS+ in the AL/NL for every 5 year period starting in 1901. Minimum was 2,000+ PAs.

This link is has the Stathead search results for 2021-25: 

Leaders from 2021-25

Ohtani is 2nd with 171, Freeman 6th with 148 and Tucker 9th with 145.

So the Dodgers enter the 2025 season with 3 guys on their roster who are in the top 10 in OPS+ over the previous 5 years. 

What other teams have had 3 of the top 10 hitters in OPS+ over the previous 5 years?

2025 Dodgers. The 3 players are Ohtani 4th (163), Freeman 6th (153), Betts 7th (145). Again, that shows that those 3 guys were in the top 10 for the years 2020-24.

2024 Dodgers. Freeman 4th (151), Ohtani 6th (148), Betts 7th (142)

2004 Yankees. Giambi 3rd (171), Sheffield 8th (156), Alex Rodriguez 10th (153)

1984 Angels. Lynn 7th (140), Grich 8th (136), Reggie Jackson 9th (136)

1966 Giants. Mays 2nd (171) Cepeda 7th (148), McCovey 8th (143) (Cepeda only played 19 games for the Giants in 1966 before being traded to the Cardinals where he played 123 games)

1956 Dodgers. Snider 4th (152), Robinson 8th (137), Hodges 10th (137)

1955 Dodgers. Snider 6th (146), Robinson 7th (143), Hodges 10th (137)

1954 Dodgers. Robinson 5th (146), Campanella 7th (141), Snider 8th (137) (Hodges was 11th)

1954 Indians. Rosen 3rd (150), Doby 4th (148), Wertz 9th (134) (Wertz started the year with Orioles and had 106 PAs there and then 337 with Clev.)

1950 Yankees. DiMaggio 3rd (158), Mize 5th (153), Henrich 7th (137)

1934 Giants. Ott 5th (156), O'Doul 8th (149), Terry 10th (146)

1928 A's. Speaker 5th (147), Cobb 9th (139), Simmons 10th (138)

1923 Tigers. Cobb 3rd (165), Heilmann 6th (145), Veach 10th (131)

1922 Tigers. Cobb 2nd (174), Veach is 8th (138), Heilmann 10th (135)

1912 Tigers. Cobb 1st (186), Crawford 5th (153), Jim Delahanty 10th (130)

The 1942 Dodgers had Dolph Camilli and Joe Medwick in the top 10 of the previous 5 years. They also had Arky Vaughan who Stathead lists as 11th with a 133 OPS+. In 10th was Rudy York with 133. My guess is that York was slightly ahead. His name would come after Vaughan alphabetically if BB Ref sorted that way. So maybe if they showed a decimal point York would come out ahead.

Friday, January 23, 2026

Do teams with several good base stealers hit better with a runner on first base?

I looked at all teams since 1946 that had 4 or more players with 25+ SBs (I tried using 30+ SBs first but there were only 5 teams with 4 or more). The idea was that if a team had many base stealers the opposition will hold the runner on first base, opening up a hole that might help the batter. All data from Baseball Reference and Stathead.

There were 12 teams that had 4 or more players with 25+ SBs. I looked at how much better those teams hit with a runner on first base (and first base only) compared to having no one on base. But that difference was then compared to the league average difference.

Here are the 12 teams along with how many of their players stole 25+ bases and the average for the other teams in their league:

Team

Season

Count

Lg Avg.

OAK

1976

6

1.36

STL

1985

5

1.09

OAK

1974

4

0.83

TEX

1977

4

1.00

PIT

1977

4

1.27

HOU

1979

4

1.36

SDP

1982

4

1.55

STL

1983

4

1.82

STL

1984

4

1.36

CIN

1988

4

1.82

STL

1990

4

1.64

SDP

1999

4

1.20

Now it is possible that these teams played in a league that had many players with 25+ SBs, so that would make it harder to be better than the league average. So the last column supplies us with that information.

The 1974 A's employed a "designated pinch runner," track star Herb Washington (29 SBs). He appeared in 92 games yet never came to bat or took the field. The 1976 A's did pretty much the same thing with Larry Lintz (31 SBs) who appeared in 68 games with only 4 plate appearances. He played just 13 innings in the field.

The table below shows how much higher (or lower) each team's batting average was with a runner on first base than with no runners on base. Then the difference for the entire league. Then whatever edge each team had over the league average.

Team

Season

Team Diff

Lg Diff

Team Edge

OAK

1976

0.028

0.026

0.002

STL

1985

0.003

0.012

-0.009

OAK

1974

-0.003

0.033

-0.036

TEX

1977

0.048

0.024

0.024

PIT

1977

0.022

0.023

-0.001

HOU

1979

0.037

0.029

0.008

SDP

1982

0.071

0.026

0.045

STL

1983

0.034

0.028

0.006

STL

1984

0.04

0.028

0.012

CIN

1988

0.023

0.025

-0.002

STL

1990

0.021

0.032

-0.011

SDP

1999

0.012

0.012

0

If we look at the 1976 A's they hit .028 higher with a runner on first base than with no runners on. The league hit .026 higher, so their edge was .002.

5 of the 12 teams did worse than the league average. 4 others did less than .010 better. So no clear pattern  of teams with several good base stealers doing better. And these are teams that would have had a hole on the right side of the infield more often than average. The average edge across the 12 teams was .00317. 

The one team that had a very large edge was the 1982 Padres. They batted .242 with no runners on and .313 with a runner on first. So .071 higher. For the NL that year it was .253 with no one on and .279 wit a man on first, .026 higher. That means the Padres had an edge of .045 (.071 - .026).

The Padres had 873 ABs with a runner on first. That would mean an extra 39 hits or so (873*.045 is about 39). Not all of those extra hits would necessarily have been singles through the big hole between first base and second base. Their percentage of hits that went for 2Bs, 3Bs and HRs was about the same with runners on first as it was for no runners on.

About 76% of their hits in either case were singles. So maybe they gained about 30 hits from having more runners held on first base than the average team. But either way, 39 or 30, no other team would be even close to that kind of impact. 

The next highest team was the 1977 Rangers with an edge of .024. They had 952 ABs with a runner on first. That would mean about 23 extra hits (.024-952 is about 23). And then there is the 1974 A's who were .036 worse than the league average. That would mean about 34 fewer hits (.036-932 is about 34).

Another thing that might be important is what percentage of ABs with a runner on first were by left handed batters, who presumably would have an easier time hitting a ball in the hole. 

Team

Season

% LHB

Lg Avg

% LHB Edge

Avg Edge

SDP

1982

0.611

0.402

0.209

0.045

TEX

1977

0.432

0.428

0.004

0.024

STL

1984

0.517

0.404

0.113

0.012

HOU

1979

0.392

0.364

0.028

0.008

STL

1983

0.594

0.418

0.176

0.006

OAK

1976

0.254

0.397

-0.143

0.002

SDP

1999

0.417

0.384

0.033

0

PIT

1977

0.457

0.349

0.108

-0.001

CIN

1988

0.404

0.407

-0.003

-0.002

STL

1985

0.562

0.386

0.176

-0.009

STL

1990

0.449

0.431

0.018

-0.011

OAK

1974

0.289

0.355

-0.067

-0.036

61.1% of the 1982 Padres' ABs with a runner on first were by a LHB. The league average was 40.2%. So their %LHB edge was 20.9%. It is not a surprise that a team that must have had alot of LHBs hit so much better with a runner on first (they were the best relative to the league average, .045 batter from the last column).

But the next best team in Avg Edge, the 1977 Rangers, only had %LHB edge of .004. And 3 teams that had a positive %LHB edge had a negative Avg Edge. The 1983 Cardinals had a %LHB edge of .176 yet their Avg Edge was only .006.

So it does not look like there is much of pattern or evidence that having alot of LHBs raises batting average with a base stealer on first.

When I get a chance I might lower the SB level to 15 and do the same analysis.