Saturday, February 15, 2025

White Sox hitter's Marcel projections from Baseball Reference: Are they too optimistic?

The table below shows the projected OPS and PAs for players currently on the Sox roster for whom BB Ref has done projections. Collectively they are projected for 5,387 ABs and an OPS of .681. Last year the White Sox had a team OPS of .618 and 5,383 ABs. So a big jump in OPS is predicted.

Name

Age

2025 OPS

2025 PA

2024 OPS

2024 PA

Jacob Amaya

26

0.643

237

0.413

72

Brooks Baldwin

24

0.687

261

0.566

121

Andrew Benintendi

30

0.696

522

0.685

522

Oscar Colás

26

0.657

246

0.641

38

Dominic Fletcher

27

0.642

329

0.508

241

Korey Lee

26

0.614

405

0.591

394

Bryan Ramos

23

0.706

253

0.586

108

Luis Robert Jr.

27

0.755

470

0.657

425

Josh Rojas

31

0.678

471

0.641

476

Austin Slater

32

0.697

326

0.586

212

Mike Tauchman

34

0.711

414

0.723

350

Michael A. Taylor

34

0.657

389

0.543

300

Matt Thaiss

30

0.662

323

0.622

186

Miguel Vargas

25

0.639

349

0.506

237

Andrew Vaughn

27

0.731

572

0.699

619

Lenyn Sosa

25

0.654

402

0.642

369

Click here to see the projections for all players for 2025.

BB Ref projects a collective .731 OPS for all the non White Sox players this year. Last year the overall MLB OPS was .711. Take out the White Sox and it was .714. 

So the Sox will do .063 better while everyone else will do .017 better. Maybe both are projected to do better since some weaker hitters might not be included in the projections. Whatever the case, the White are predicted to gain alot compared to everyone else. That seems too optimistic.

The projection "uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor." (originally from Tom Tango).

Maybe the White Sox will regress to the mean more than other teams since they did so poorly last year. And maybe some of the younger guys will improve, since there is an age factor.

15 of the 16 guys on the Sox are projected to have a higher OPS this year than last year. One is by over .200, six others by over .100 and then there is a .098.

The OPS weighted by PAs for this group of 16 was .627 in 2024. It is .681 for 2025.