Will Trout join elite group by leading league in OPS+ for the 5th year in a row?

Trout came into today with a 188 OPS+. Nelson Cruz was 2nd with 154 and George Springer was 3rd with 151.

Since 1900, the only players to lead their league at least 5 straight years were Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt and Barry Bonds. Ted Williams led the AL 1941-42, missed 3 years in WWII, then led from 1946-49.

In the Angel's remaining games, the average ERA+ of the teams they will face is 106.75 (that actually includes their games yesterday and today against the Orioles-I also used ERA+ thru Friday).  So my guess is that the average ERA+ of the teams he has faced so far is below 100, but I did not calculate that.

I looked at how Trout has done in his career against teams that had at least a 106 ERA+ over the years 2012-2019. His OPS against those teams (there are 8 of them) is .932. But his career OPS is .999. That means that his OPS against everyone else was above 1.000, probably around 1.020.

So let's say that Trout will be 100 points less than his current 1.102 the rest of the way. So I estimate that he will finish with an OPS of 1.070.

Cruz is also 2nd in OPS with .980. If is going to beat 1.070, he would need to have an OPS of about 1.260 the rest of the way.

Of course, there would be adjustments for park effects. But it looks like Trout will join that elite group if he stays healthy.

Was Bob Gibson even better in 1970 than he was in 1968?

I have written about this before. See Explaining Bob Gibson’s 1968 Season.

In the table below we can see that his FIP ERA as a percentage of the league average was lower in 1970 than in 1968 (1967 and 1969 were not far behind). Also, his lowest FIP- ERA (which takes park effects into account, from Fangraphs) was in 1970. The 61 in 1970 means that his FIP ERA was 61% of the league average.

Year	FIP	Lg FIP	%	FIP-
1959	3.55	3.87	0.917	87
1960	3.68	3.64	1.011	95
1961	3.58	3.94	0.909	85
1962	3.02	3.84	0.786	73
1963	3.13	3.27	0.957	89
1964	3.02	3.39	0.891	83
1965	3.33	3.42	0.974	90
1966	2.76	3.49	0.791	80
1967	2.34	3.26	0.718	73
1968	1.77	2.83	0.625	65
1969	2.30	3.45	0.667	68
1970	2.29	3.84	0.596	61
1971	2.70	3.38	0.799	80
1972	2.54	3.33	0.763	77
1973	2.83	3.69	0.767	77
1974	4.17	3.62	1.152	118
1975	4.50	3.60	1.250	128

 
Gibson is famous for his 1.12 ERA in 1968, but there was alot more offense in 1969 and 1970. So context matters.

On thing that helped him in 1968 was his very low BABIP.

In 1968, Gibson's BABIP was .230, 34 points below what it was for the entire Cardinal staff. That was the farthest below the rest of the staff he was in his career.

In 1969 and 1970, he was actually .002 and .005 above the entire staff. In 1967, he was .012 higher.

I also broke down his performance into RISP and non-RISP situations to try to understand how his ERA could have been so low. He allowed a batting average of .184 overall in 1968 but just .141 with RISP (and .193 in non-RISP situations).  His career average allowed overall was .228 while with RISP it was .219. Those two are pretty close, indicating that Gibson probably did not have any special ability with RISP. He just happened to do very well in those situations in 1968.

Smoltz and Joe Buck Imply LeMahieu Was Not Helped By Playing In Colorado

From last nite's all-star broadcast

John Smoltz: "But for anyone who says its just all about Colorado, DJ LeMahieu is proving that wrong"

Joe Buck: "You're right. Everybody always does "the yah but" arguments for the Colorado guys. Doesn't apply to LeMahieu."

Here are  LeMahieu's AVG-OBP-SLG home and away in the years he played for the Rockies. This  covers 400+ games both home and away. Numbers from Baseball Reference and the Baseball Reference Play Index

Home) .329-.386-.447
Away) .267-.314-.367

Playing in Colorado sure helped him a lot. One half season like this year does not prove anything.

His highest single season road OPS with the Rockies was .753. This year it is .845. That might be a bit lucky. That is in only 183 PAs

Fernando Tatis's 159 OPS+ At Age 20 Puts Him In Great Company

Yes, there is still lots of the season to go, but only 8 guys since 1900 had at least a 150 OPS+ age 20 or less with 200+ PAs. 7 are in the top 40 of career offensive WAR. The other is Trout (at 66).

Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Age
Mike Trout	168	639	2012	20
Ty Cobb	167	642	1907	20
Mel Ott	165	675	1929	20
Al Kaline	162	681	1955	20
Mickey Mantle	162	626	1952	20
Alex Rodriguez	161	677	1996	20
Ted Williams	160	675	1939	20
Fernando Tatis Jr.	159	230	2019	20
Rogers Hornsby	151	550	1916	20

Lowering it to 140 OPS+ gives us

Player	OPS+	PA	Year	Age
Mike Trout	168	639	2012	20
Ty Cobb	167	642	1907	20
Mel Ott	165	675	1929	20
Al Kaline	162	681	1955	20
Mickey Mantle	162	626	1952	20
Alex Rodriguez	161	677	1996	20
Ted Williams	160	675	1939	20
Fernando Tatis Jr.	159	230	2019	20
Rogers Hornsby	151	550	1916	20
Jimmie Foxx	148	473	1928	20
Ronald Acuna Jr.	144	487	2018	20
Juan Soto	143	338	2019	20
Juan Soto	143	494	2018	19
Frank Robinson	143	667	1956	20
Dick Hoblitzell	143	590	1909	20

Here all the guys with a .900 or higher OPS (not adjusted in any way) at age 20 or less with 200+ PAs in the first half since 1908 (from Baseball Reference Play Index)

Player	Year	OPS	PA
Mel Ott	1929	1.139	376
Al Kaline	1955	1.067	378
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2019	1.013	234
Alex Rodriguez	1996	0.996	322
Frank Robinson	1956	0.991	310
Ted Williams	1939	0.987	301
Mike Trout	2012	0.959	290
Juan Soto	2019	0.943	342
Mickey Mantle	1952	0.934	275
Juan Soto	2018	0.929	209
Ken Griffey Jr.	1990	0.907	361