Trout came into today with a 188 OPS+. Nelson Cruz was 2nd with 154 and George Springer was 3rd with 151.
Since 1900, the only players to lead their league at least 5 straight years were Ty Cobb, Rogers Hornsby, Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Mike Schmidt and Barry Bonds. Ted Williams led the AL 1941-42, missed 3 years in WWII, then led from 1946-49.
In the Angel's remaining games, the average ERA+ of the teams they will face is 106.75 (that actually includes their games yesterday and today against the Orioles-I also used ERA+ thru Friday). So my guess is that the average ERA+ of the teams he has faced so far is below 100, but I did not calculate that.
I looked at how Trout has done in his career against teams that had at least a 106 ERA+ over the years 2012-2019. His OPS against those teams (there are 8 of them) is .932. But his career OPS is .999. That means that his OPS against everyone else was above 1.000, probably around 1.020.
So let's say that Trout will be 100 points less than his current 1.102 the rest of the way. So I estimate that he will finish with an OPS of 1.070.
Cruz is also 2nd in OPS with .980. If is going to beat 1.070, he would need to have an OPS of about 1.260 the rest of the way.
Of course, there would be adjustments for park effects. But it looks like Trout will join that elite group if he stays healthy.
Sunday, July 28, 2019
Sunday, July 21, 2019
Was Bob Gibson even better in 1970 than he was in 1968?
I have written about this before. See Explaining Bob Gibson’s 1968 Season.
In the table below we can see that his FIP ERA as a percentage of the league average was lower in 1970 than in 1968 (1967 and 1969 were not far behind). Also, his lowest FIP- ERA (which takes park effects into account, from Fangraphs) was in 1970. The 61 in 1970 means that his FIP ERA was 61% of the league average.
Gibson is famous for his 1.12 ERA in 1968, but there was alot more offense in 1969 and 1970. So context matters.
On thing that helped him in 1968 was his very low BABIP.
In 1968, Gibson's BABIP was .230, 34 points below what it was for the entire Cardinal staff. That was the farthest below the rest of the staff he was in his career.
In 1969 and 1970, he was actually .002 and .005 above the entire staff. In 1967, he was .012 higher.
I also broke down his performance into RISP and non-RISP situations to try to understand how his ERA could have been so low. He allowed a batting average of .184 overall in 1968 but just .141 with RISP (and .193 in non-RISP situations). His career average allowed overall was .228 while with RISP it was .219. Those two are pretty close, indicating that Gibson probably did not have any special ability with RISP. He just happened to do very well in those situations in 1968.
In the table below we can see that his FIP ERA as a percentage of the league average was lower in 1970 than in 1968 (1967 and 1969 were not far behind). Also, his lowest FIP- ERA (which takes park effects into account, from Fangraphs) was in 1970. The 61 in 1970 means that his FIP ERA was 61% of the league average.
Year
|
FIP
|
Lg FIP
|
%
|
FIP-
|
1959
|
3.55
|
3.87
|
0.917
|
87
|
1960
|
3.68
|
3.64
|
1.011
|
95
|
1961
|
3.58
|
3.94
|
0.909
|
85
|
1962
|
3.02
|
3.84
|
0.786
|
73
|
1963
|
3.13
|
3.27
|
0.957
|
89
|
1964
|
3.02
|
3.39
|
0.891
|
83
|
1965
|
3.33
|
3.42
|
0.974
|
90
|
1966
|
2.76
|
3.49
|
0.791
|
80
|
1967
|
2.34
|
3.26
|
0.718
|
73
|
1968
|
1.77
|
2.83
|
0.625
|
65
|
1969
|
2.30
|
3.45
|
0.667
|
68
|
1970
|
2.29
|
3.84
|
0.596
|
61
|
1971
|
2.70
|
3.38
|
0.799
|
80
|
1972
|
2.54
|
3.33
|
0.763
|
77
|
1973
|
2.83
|
3.69
|
0.767
|
77
|
1974
|
4.17
|
3.62
|
1.152
|
118
|
1975
|
4.50
|
3.60
|
1.250
|
128
|
Gibson is famous for his 1.12 ERA in 1968, but there was alot more offense in 1969 and 1970. So context matters.
On thing that helped him in 1968 was his very low BABIP.
In 1968, Gibson's BABIP was .230, 34 points below what it was for the entire Cardinal staff. That was the farthest below the rest of the staff he was in his career.
In 1969 and 1970, he was actually .002 and .005 above the entire staff. In 1967, he was .012 higher.
I also broke down his performance into RISP and non-RISP situations to try to understand how his ERA could have been so low. He allowed a batting average of .184 overall in 1968 but just .141 with RISP (and .193 in non-RISP situations). His career average allowed overall was .228 while with RISP it was .219. Those two are pretty close, indicating that Gibson probably did not have any special ability with RISP. He just happened to do very well in those situations in 1968.
Wednesday, July 10, 2019
Smoltz and Joe Buck Imply LeMahieu Was Not Helped By Playing In Colorado
From last nite's all-star broadcast
John Smoltz: "But for anyone who says its just all about Colorado, DJ LeMahieu is proving that wrong"
Joe Buck: "You're right. Everybody always does "the yah but" arguments for the Colorado guys. Doesn't apply to LeMahieu."
Here are LeMahieu's AVG-OBP-SLG home and away in the years he played for the Rockies. This covers 400+ games both home and away. Numbers from Baseball Reference and the Baseball Reference Play Index
Home) .329-.386-.447
Away) .267-.314-.367
Playing in Colorado sure helped him a lot. One half season like this year does not prove anything.
His highest single season road OPS with the Rockies was .753. This year it is .845. That might be a bit lucky. That is in only 183 PAs
John Smoltz: "But for anyone who says its just all about Colorado, DJ LeMahieu is proving that wrong"
Joe Buck: "You're right. Everybody always does "the yah but" arguments for the Colorado guys. Doesn't apply to LeMahieu."
Here are LeMahieu's AVG-OBP-SLG home and away in the years he played for the Rockies. This covers 400+ games both home and away. Numbers from Baseball Reference and the Baseball Reference Play Index
Home) .329-.386-.447
Away) .267-.314-.367
Playing in Colorado sure helped him a lot. One half season like this year does not prove anything.
His highest single season road OPS with the Rockies was .753. This year it is .845. That might be a bit lucky. That is in only 183 PAs
Sunday, July 7, 2019
Fernando Tatis's 159 OPS+ At Age 20 Puts Him In Great Company
Yes, there is still lots of the season to go, but only 8 guys since 1900 had at least a 150 OPS+ age 20 or less with 200+ PAs. 7 are in the top 40 of career offensive WAR. The other is Trout (at 66).
Lowering it to 140 OPS+ gives us
Here all the guys with a .900 or higher OPS (not adjusted in any way) at age 20 or less with 200+ PAs in the first half since 1908 (from Baseball Reference Play Index)
Player
|
OPS+
|
PA
|
Year
|
Age
|
Mike Trout
|
168
|
639
|
2012
|
20
|
Ty Cobb
|
167
|
642
|
1907
|
20
|
Mel Ott
|
165
|
675
|
1929
|
20
|
Al Kaline
|
162
|
681
|
1955
|
20
|
Mickey Mantle
|
162
|
626
|
1952
|
20
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
161
|
677
|
1996
|
20
|
Ted Williams
|
160
|
675
|
1939
|
20
|
Fernando Tatis Jr.
|
159
|
230
|
2019
|
20
|
Rogers Hornsby
|
151
|
550
|
1916
|
20
|
Lowering it to 140 OPS+ gives us
Player
|
OPS+
|
PA
|
Year
|
Age
|
Mike Trout
|
168
|
639
|
2012
|
20
|
Ty Cobb
|
167
|
642
|
1907
|
20
|
Mel Ott
|
165
|
675
|
1929
|
20
|
Al Kaline
|
162
|
681
|
1955
|
20
|
Mickey Mantle
|
162
|
626
|
1952
|
20
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
161
|
677
|
1996
|
20
|
Ted Williams
|
160
|
675
|
1939
|
20
|
Fernando Tatis Jr.
|
159
|
230
|
2019
|
20
|
Rogers Hornsby
|
151
|
550
|
1916
|
20
|
Jimmie Foxx
|
148
|
473
|
1928
|
20
|
Ronald Acuna Jr.
|
144
|
487
|
2018
|
20
|
Juan Soto
|
143
|
338
|
2019
|
20
|
Juan Soto
|
143
|
494
|
2018
|
19
|
Frank Robinson
|
143
|
667
|
1956
|
20
|
Dick Hoblitzell
|
143
|
590
|
1909
|
20
|
Here all the guys with a .900 or higher OPS (not adjusted in any way) at age 20 or less with 200+ PAs in the first half since 1908 (from Baseball Reference Play Index)
Player
|
Year
|
OPS
|
PA
|
Mel Ott
|
1929
|
1.139
|
376
|
Al Kaline
|
1955
|
1.067
|
378
|
Fernando Tatis Jr.
|
2019
|
1.013
|
234
|
Alex Rodriguez
|
1996
|
0.996
|
322
|
Frank Robinson
|
1956
|
0.991
|
310
|
Ted Williams
|
1939
|
0.987
|
301
|
Mike Trout
|
2012
|
0.959
|
290
|
Juan Soto
|
2019
|
0.943
|
342
|
Mickey Mantle
|
1952
|
0.934
|
275
|
Juan Soto
|
2018
|
0.929
|
209
|
Ken Griffey Jr.
|
1990
|
0.907
|
361
|