Thursday, April 30, 2015

Hitting with runners on and in scoring position seems to be exceeding normal differentials so far this year

See these links for comparisons

http://cybermetric.blogspot.com/2014/10/major-league-situational-stats-2010-2014.html
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=NL&year=2015
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/split.cgi?t=b&lg=AL&year=2015

I will try to update later with the relevant numbers in tables

so far this year


Split BA OBP SLG
RISP 0.259 0.342 0.414
None on 0.241 0.305 0.382
Men On 0.261 0.335 0.414




NL


Split BA OBP SLG
RISP 0.260 0.336 0.399
None on 0.237 0.295 0.369
Men On 0.265 0.332 0.407

Major League Situational Stats, 2010-2014

Compiled using the Baseball Reference Play Index.

Split PA BA OBP SLG OPS
Total 923779 0.254 0.319 0.398 0.717
None On 520158 0.249 0.310 0.393 0.702
Men On 403621 0.261 0.332 0.405 0.737
RISP 238074 0.255 0.339 0.394 0.733
Late & Close 153559 0.240 0.316 0.365 0.681

seems like differentials are much higher in 2015 than usual

Sunday, April 26, 2015

How To Lead The League In HRs And Batting Average But Not RBIs Babe Ruth 1924 Edition

The first edition looked at Johnny Mize, 1939.

Since 1920, 12 players have won the triple crown (it has been won 12 times but Hornsby and Ted Williams each did it twice) and three other players led their league in HRs and AVG but not RBIs. So 80% of the time a player leads in the first two stats they win the triple crown. Click here to see the Baseball Reference list of triple crown winners.

Ted Williams, 1941 is the other player besides Mize and Ruth to fit this category.

Here are the leaders in the AL in 1924:

AVG

1.Ruth (NYY).378
2.Jamieson (CLE).359
3.Falk (CHW).352
4.Collins (CHW).349
5.Bassler (DET).346

HR

1.Ruth (NYY)46
2.Hauser (PHA)27
3.Jacobson (SLB)19
4.Williams (SLB)18
5.Boone (BOS)13

RBI

1.Goslin (WSH)129
2.Ruth (NYY)124

Meusel (NYY)124
4.Hauser (PHA)115
5.Heilmann (DET)114

How could Goslin get more RBIs than Ruth? Goslin hit 12 HRs and batted .344. Ruth beat him in TBs 391-299 and in extra-base hits 92-59. Ruth only beat him 200-199 in total hits, however.

Ruth batted 3rd in all but one of his 681 PAs. Goslin had 624 of his 674 PAs batting 4th and the rest 3rd.

Here are the stats for slots 1-3 on the Senators (with Goslin removed from the stats for slot 3)


Slot 2B 3B HR SB CS OBP
1 29 22 0 14 11 0.357
2 27 13 1 19 20 0.364
3 35 5 1 28 5 0.357

Here are the stats for slots 1-2 on the Yankees


Slot 2B 3B HR SB CS OBP
1 27 7 2 10 10 0.350
2 33 8 3 1 3 0.341

The three guys in front of Goslin had about a .359 combined OBP. Those guys averaged getting on base about 248 times each.

The two guys in front of Ruth are about .345. Those guys averaged getting on base about 240 times each.

It looks like the Senators might also have had faster runners with their higher triple and SB totals.

But it seems like this would not be enough to overcome Ruth's huge lead in HR's, TBs and extra-base hits. Maybe Ruth got walked alot with runners in scoring position. He had 142 BBs and Goslin had 68. That gave Goslin an extra 74 times to swing the bat and they were both pretty close in total PAs.

Retrosheet does not have the splits for batting with runners on and with runners in scoring position. Maybe Goslin did unusually well that year. Until we have those splits, we can't be sure what allowed him to have more RBIs than Ruth.