Friday, January 22, 2016

How the error rate can affect the run value of OBP & SLG

This is something I did several years ago and I think originally I just mentioned it on the SABR list.

Here is an example of how the error rate can affect things. The error rate is 1 - fielding pct. The regression below shows runs per game as a function of OBP & SLG for each season of the NL from 1920-2012 (I used the whole league instead of teams)

R/G = 22.77*OBP + 6.7*OBP - 5.68

Now what if we add in the error rate. The regression becomes

R/G = 15.75*OBP + 9.7*SLG + 15.69*ERATE - 4.94

The relative value of OBP & SLG changed quite a bit. But this is for a whole league. The ERATE applies to the whole league.

I have used the ERATE and applied it to teams. That assumes that the rate of errors made against each team is the same. Not totally realistic, but that is what I have. Sof it the ERATE was .02 one year in a league, every team got that rate.

I did all teams from 1920-1998. Here are the two regressions

R/G = 19.89*OBP + 9.79*SLG - 5.95

R/G = 17.63*OBP + 10.7*SLG + 13.51*ERATE - 5.87

So again the relative values of OBP & SLG change

Thursday, November 5, 2015

Royals' Starters Excelled With Runners In Scoring Position

I looked at the following 7 pitchers on the Royals. These guys were primarily starters and the vast majority of their innings were from starting. I found their weighted average of OPS allowed with none on and with RISP (weighted by PAs-maybe that is not quite right since SLG is TBs over ABs).

Chris Young
Danny Duffy
Edinson Volquez
Jason Vargas
Jeremy Guthrie
Johnny Cueto
Yordano Ventura

With none on, they allowed an OPS of .731. With RISP it was .691. As I mentioned in an earlier post, the team staff as a whole did .032 better with RISP (.668 vs. .700). So the starters had an even bigger edge. A comment was made at the Hardball Times that mabye that .032 differential existed because they brought in good relievers with RISP and their relievers were much better than their starters.

From 2010-14 for all of MLB, OPS with none on was .702 and with RISP it was .733. So normally it goes up with RISP yet the Royals’ starters managed to have it go way down. For the AL in 2015, OPS with none on was .702 and with RISP it was .746.

Here are the OPS allowed stats with none on

Chris Young 0.608
Danny Duffy 0.782
Edinson Volquez 0.720
Jason Vargas 0.609
Jeremy Guthrie 0.889
Johnny Cueto 0.844
Yordano Ventura 0.639

Now with RISP

Chris Young 0.643
Danny Duffy 0.728
Edinson Volquez 0.506
Jason Vargas 0.585
Jeremy Guthrie 0.851
Johnny Cueto 0.759
Yordano Ventura 0.755

Sunday, November 1, 2015

How Might The 1906 Cubs Compare To The 1927 Yankees In OPS Differential?

The 1927 Yankees have the highest OPS differential since 1914. Their batters had an OPS of .872 while their pitching staff allowed .676. That gives them a differential of .196. See my post on The 25 Highest And Lowest Team OPS Differentials From 1914-2014.

Before 1914, we don't know SLG allowed by teams. The Cubs had an OPS of .667 and allowed an OBP of .280. With SLG unknown, we can't get OPS.

But I can estimate it using their AVG allowed (.207) and HR% allowed (.00244 ). I ran a regression using all the MLB teams from 1914-1919 with SLG allowed being dependent on AVG allowed and HR% allowed. Here is the equation

SLG = 2.497*HR% + 1.257*AVG + 0.00264

That predicts that the Cubs would allow .269 and given them an OPS allowed of .549. Then their differential would be .118, far below that of the 1927 Yankees.

Now the team that fell the farthest below their prediction for 1914-19 was the 1919 Giants (.012). That was equal to about 2 standard errors of the regression. Even if we lower the SLG allowed by the Cubs by .012, their OPS differential is .130, still far below that of the 1927 Yankees.

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Wall Street Journal Book Review Seems To Have Error About 1919 White Sox

See Was It So, Shoeless Joe? Here is the letter I sent them:

"David M. Shribman's review of "The Betrayal" by Charles Fountain ("Was It So, Shoeless Joe?" Oct. 31) seems to have a major statistical error. It reads "In the Series they (the White Sox) batted .255, significantly higher than their .215 season average." But Baseball Reference shows the White Sox to have a team batting average of .287 during the 1919 season while batting just .224 during the World Series."

Thursday, October 22, 2015

Did Chris Sale Have Bad Luck This Year?

It seems like he pitched worse in high leverage situations than otherwise this year and that has not been the case before. The table below shows his OPS allowed for High, Medium and Low leverage situations from 2012-15. All data from Baseball Reference and the BR Play Index.

Year High  Medium  Low 
2012 0.639 0.626 0.715
2013 0.556 0.618 0.693
2014 0.612 0.522 0.607
2015 0.709 0.658 0.616

So he allowed a much higher OPS in High leverage cases than otherwise. But it looks like he did better in High leverage cases in 2012 & 2013. So maybe he had some good luck then. My guess is that most pitchers have this kind of pattern, where they have bad luck one year and good luck the next or vice-versa (I hope I can take a look at that).

But I did look at how pitchers in general did over the years 2012-15 (with stats for each pitcher being cumulative). I only looked at pitchers who had 100+ IP in all three leverage situations, so I think that means only starters got in (or mostly starters-the only guy with under 500 total IP was Wade Davis and I took him out).

Then I calculated a weighted average (by batters faced) of the OPS allowed for all three leverage situations over the years 2012-15 for this group. There were 72 pitchers (Chris Sale was removed as well). Here are the results:

High  0.706
Medium  0.706
Low 0.692

So pitchers generally do just a bit worse in High and Medium cases than Low cases (in the long run, as I combined years). So Sale might have had bad luck this year, after some good luck in the past.

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Dizzy Dean's 1934 Season, When He Went 30-6

The Cardinals came in first place, just 2 games ahead of the Giants. The Giants were only one game out going into the final day of the season. Dean won a complete game on that day.

Dean was outstanding the last two months of the season. In August, his ERA was 1.41 in 51 IP (46H, 33K, 10BB, 2 HR).

In September, his ERA was 1.54 in 64.1 IP (45H, 41K, 16BB, 3HR). He started 7 games, completing 6 AND he pitched 5 games in relief (for the whole season, he started 33 games and pitched 17 in relief).

In the last 6 days of the season, he pitched 3 complete games, allowing just a total of 2 earned runs (one game was on 2 days rest and the other was on 1 day of rest!!). In those three games, he had 20H, 19K, 3BB, 1HR. He won all three games.

He saved 2 games in September (he had a total of 7 saves that year with a 4-2 record as a reliever). On September 11, he had a 2.1 IP save the day after pitching a complete game. He also pitched one-third of an inning on September 12.

He did have a gap of 12 days when he did not pitch at all, from August 12-August 24. He had a 10 day suspension. For details, see A Closer Look: Dizzy Dean Wins 30 in 1934 by Gabriel Schechter. There was also a victory awarded to him in a questionable decision by the official scorer. Otherwise, he wins only 29.

Twice he pitched 3 innings in relief the day after pitching 9 innings. Another time it was 2.1 IP the day after pitching 9 innings. Still another time it was 2 IP the day after pitching 8 innings. In all, he pitched in relief six times the day after starting and going at least 8 innings.

He also pitched in relief in both ends of a double header on September 23rd, after a complete game on Sept. 21. Then he pitched a complete game on Sept. 25 followed by CGs on Sept. 28 & Sept. 30!

The he started game 1 of the World Series on October 3, on just 2 days rest and got a complete game victory. His next start was Oct. 7. He lost in 8 IP, but it was still a complete game. He then started game 7 on October 9, on only one day of rest. He pitched a complete game shut out against a lineup that included the following Hall of Famers:

Mickey Cochrane
Charlie Gehringer
Goose Goslin
Hank Greenberg 

So he had 6 starts in a 15 day stretch and completed all of them. He allowed only 5 earned runs in 26 IP in the World Series.

From Baseball Reference:

Dean's 1934 splits

Dean's 1934 game logs
Dean's post season game logs

Wednesday, October 14, 2015

Post Season Game Scores Of 90+

They are from the Baseball Reference Play Index. If you click on the link you may need to be a subscriber to see it. You might try this one, too.

The list is posted below, although not without all the stats for each pitcher. If you click on the date, you can see the box score.

Roger Clemens has the highest ever, 98, in the 2000 ALCS. In 9 IP.

Whose record did he break? (2 guys, each had 97)

Those two guys each pitched more than 9 innings. So whose 9 IP record did Clemens break? (2 guys, each had 94)

Who is the only guy to have 2 90+ Game Scores in post season history?

Who had the only no-decision with a 90+? (his team also lost the game) There are 21 such games (going back to 1903) and 20 of them gave the pitcher a win.

Who are the only teammates to have 90+ Game Scores in the same year?

Who are the only pitchers to reach 90 in less than 9 IP? (2 guys)

This was all easy to find with the Baseball Reference Play Index. I was wondering about something and then when I saw the list, I thought it would make for some interesting questions.  

Player Date Tm Series App,Dec IP GSc
Roger Clemens 10/14/2000 NYY ALCS SHO9, W 9 98
Dave McNally 10/5/1969 BAL ALCS SHO11, W 11 97
Babe Ruth 10/9/1916 BOS WS CG 14, W 14 97
Tim Lincecum 10/7/2010 SFG NLDS SHO9, W 9 96
Roy Halladay 10/6/2010 PHI NLDS SHO9, W 9 94
Don Larsen 10/8/1956 NYY WS SHO9, W 9 94
Ed Walsh 10/11/1906CHW WS SHO9, W 9 94
Josh Beckett 10/12/2003 FLA NLCS SHO9, W 9 93
Ken Holtzman 10/9/1973 OAK ALCS CG 11, W 11 93
Bob Gibson 10/2/1968 STL WS SHO9, W 9 93
Kevin Brown 9/29/1998 SDP NLDS GS-8, W 8 92
Randy Johnson 10/28/2001 ARI WS SHO9, W 9 91
Randy Johnson 10/16/2001 ARI NLCS SHO9, W 9 91
Cliff Lee 10/18/2010 TEX ALCS GS-8, W 8 90
Livan Hernandez 10/12/1997 FLA NLCS CG 9, W 9 90
Nolan Ryan 10/14/1986 HOU NLCS GS-9 9 90
Mike Scott 10/8/1986 HOU NLCS SHO9, W 9 90
Vida Blue 10/8/1974 OAK ALCS SHO9, W 9 90
Monte Pearson 10/5/1939 NYY WS SHO9, W 9 90
George Earnshaw 10/6/1931 PHA WS SHO9, W 9 90
Bill Dinneen 10/2/1903 BOS WS SHO9, W 9 90