Saturday, May 23, 2015

Harper's Amazing Month So Far

Harper leads the NL in WAR with 3.8 (Nationals have played 42 games). His OPS+ is 229 (if he finished with that, it would be the 10th highest since 1900 with only Ruth, Williams and Bonds ever doing better).

Harper's OPS+ so far in May is 314. I looked at all guys with 75+ PAs in a month through age 23 (Harper is 22 this year) and only Williams, with 348 in Sept 1942 is ahead of Harper. If Harper can just do 100 over the last 8 games, I estimate he would have 250 for the month and it would be the 19th best month ever for a guy through age 23. Through age 22 it would be 10th (this goes back to 1914, the first year you can do this at Baseball Reference Play Index).

Trout's best month ever so far is 248 last June. Bill James projected Harper with an .842 OPS this year. He is currently at 1.225. Trout is .992/.959.

Back to using through age 23, here is the top 20. The third number is games played.

Ted Williams    Sept/Oct    1942    20    348
Bryce Harper    May    2015    19    314
John Mayberry    June    1972    26    299
Ted Williams    Sept/Oct    1941    23    297
Ted Williams    July    1941    22    284
Ted Williams    August    1941    35    279
Joe DiMaggio    July    1937    29    277
Reggie Jackson    June    1969    26    277
Ted Williams    May    1942    28    268
Ted Williams    Sept/Oct    1939    28    265
Dick Wakefield    Sept/Oct    1944    29    264
Eddie Mathews    Sept/Oct    1954    24    263
Boog Powell    June    1964    21    259
Eddie Mathews    June    1955    28    256
John Mayberry    Sept/Oct    1972    31    252
Rudy York    August    1937    30    251
Alex Rodriguez    May    1999    16    251
Cesar Cedeno    June    1972    28    251
Mike Trout    June    2014    23    248
Jose Canseco    Sept/Oct    1988    26    247

Here is the top 11 through age 22. It is not likely Haprer will fall out of the top 10

Bryce Harper    May    2015    19    314
Ted Williams    Sept/Oct    1941    23    297
Ted Williams    July    1941    22    284
Ted Williams    August    1941    35    279
Joe DiMaggio    July    1937    29    277
Ted Williams    Sept/Oct    1939    28    265
Eddie Mathews    Sept/Oct    1954    24    263
Boog Powell    June    1964    21    259
Cesar Cedeno    June    1972    28    251
Mike Trout    June    2014    23    248
Ted Williams    June    1941    28    243

Wednesday, May 20, 2015

Team OPS Differntials So Far

We are about a quarter of the way through the season. Interesting that Oakland is 8th yet has a .333 winning pct. My guess is that they have had bad luck, maybe not doing well with runners on base. Also interesting is how far ahead of everyone the Dodgers are and the Royals are easily in 2nd. The Dodgers, if they finished the season with .163, would trail only the 1927 Yankees since 1914. See The 25 Highest And Lowest Team OPS Differentials From 1914-2014.

TEAM OPS OPSA DIFF
LA Dodgers 0.813 0.650 0.163
Kansas City 0.772 0.647 0.125
St. Louis 0.740 0.665 0.075
Tampa Bay 0.702 0.640 0.062
Detroit 0.767 0.708 0.059
Houston 0.722 0.670 0.052
Washington 0.752 0.702 0.050
Oakland 0.720 0.676 0.044
Baltimore 0.748 0.709 0.039
NY Yankees 0.726 0.687 0.039
San Francisco 0.727 0.693 0.034
Chicago Cubs 0.718 0.697 0.021
Pittsburgh 0.671 0.676 -0.005
NY Mets 0.659 0.665 -0.006
LA Angels 0.645 0.658 -0.013
Miami 0.684 0.698 -0.014
Toronto 0.756 0.770 -0.014
Cleveland 0.721 0.736 -0.015
Seattle 0.702 0.717 -0.015
Cincinnati 0.705 0.725 -0.020
Arizona 0.724 0.745 -0.021
Atlanta 0.702 0.741 -0.039
Texas 0.695 0.751 -0.056
Boston 0.682 0.747 -0.065
Minnesota 0.700 0.767 -0.067
Colorado 0.724 0.793 -0.069
Chicago Sox 0.671 0.748 -0.077
Philadelphia 0.649 0.735 -0.086
San Diego 0.697 0.787 -0.090
Milwaukee 0.672 0.768 -0.096

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Players With 4,000+ Total Bases Who Are Not In The Hall Of Fame

Click here to see the career leaders at Baseball Reference. The list is below. Of the 86 guys with 4,000+ PAs, 53 are in the Hall. Some on the list below will make it. Some might never make it because of PEDs or in the case of Pete Rose, gambling. Torii Hunter (3929) and Miguel Cabrera (3911) should make it to 4,000 TBs this year. Aramis Ramirez (3838) has an outside chance.

14 of the 19 guys with 5,000+ TBs are in except for

Barry Bonds
Pete Rose
Alex Rodriguez
Rafael Palmeiro
Ken Griffey

Griffey should make it. So getting to 5,000 is pretty much a lock barring any scandal.


Rank Player (yrs, age) TB
4 Barry Bonds (22) 5976
7 Pete Rose (24) 5752
9 Alex Rodriguez (21, 39) 5538
11 Rafael Palmeiro (20) 5388
13 Ken Griffey (22) 5271
21 Derek Jeter (20) 4921
27 Manny Ramirez (19) 4826
29 Chipper Jones (19) 4755
30 Gary Sheffield (22) 4737
32 Albert Pujols (15, 35) 4716
36 Sammy Sosa (18) 4704
38 Jim Thome (22) 4667
39 Harold Baines (22) 4604
46 Vladimir Guerrero (16) 4506
50 Fred McGriff (19) 4458
51 Ivan Rodriguez (21) 4451
52 Adrian Beltre (18, 36) 4433
53 Dave Parker (19) 4405
55 Luis Gonzalez (19) 4385
59 Todd Helton (17) 4292
62 Vada Pinson (18) 4264
65 Jeff Kent (17) 4246
67 Dwight Evans (20) 4230
69 Johnny Damon (18) 4214
70 Jeff Bagwell (15) 4213
72 Rusty Staub (23) 4185
73 David Ortiz (19, 39) 4184
74 Steve Finley (19) 4157
78 Carlos Beltran (18, 38) 4104
80 Paul Konerko (18) 4083

Al Oliver (18) 4083
84 Andres Galarraga (19) 4038
85 Bobby Abreu (18) 4026

Sunday, May 10, 2015

Mike Trout's Amazing RBI-To-GDP Ratio

Through May 9, Trout had 326 career RBIs and just 24 GDP. That is a ratio of 13.58. Here are the top 10 right handed batters since 1946 with 5,000 career PAs:


Joe Carter 10.95
Greg Vaughn 10.61
Tim Salmon 10.37
Ron Gant 10.29
Mike Schmidt 10.22
Dan Uggla 9.86
Mark McGwire 9.62
Bobby Bonds 9.57
Alfonso Soriano 9.42
Gorman Thomas 9.31

So Trout is currently way ahead of even the best, Joe Carter. Here is the top ten through age 24 with 1,000 PAs:


Mike Schmidt 14.25
Cory Snyder 13.73
Mike Trout 13.58
Bobby Bonds 13.53
Ellis Burks 12.47
Andrew McCutchen 12.44
Dean Palmer 11.44
Dave Nicholson 11.25
Chris Young 10.87
Mark McGwire 10.76

Trout will not turn 24 until August, so this counts as his age 23 season. Now let's add in SB and CS


Player RBI/GDP SB CS
Mike Schmidt 14.25 31 14
Cory Snyder 13.73 7 4
Mike Trout 13.58 109 14
Bobby Bonds 13.53 109 21
Ellis Burks 12.47 73 20
Andrew McCutchen 12.44 78 25
Dean Palmer 11.44 21 16
Dave Nicholson 11.25 5 9
Chris Young 10.87 43 12
Mark McGwire 10.76 1 2

Just think of all the DPs Trout helped his team avoid by stealing. AND he does not kill rallies by getting caught very much, either. The only guy who matches him in stealing is Bobby Bonds but he got thrown out 7 more times. I wonder if there is some way to adjust the RBI/GDP ratio based on SB & CS. If so, Trout might be way ahead of everyone else.

I did create a stat once to judge leadoff men. It was how many times a guy got into scoring position (2B+3B+SB-assumes all SB are of 2nd base, not quite right) divided by how many outs he makes (not just batting outs but CS added in and GDP added in-just once for GDP since an out is already there). Call it SCP/Out.

This next table has the 20 through age 24 with 1,000 PAs in both RBI/GDP and SCP/Out. Players who made both lists are in red:


Player
RBI/GDP

Player
SCP/Outs
Mike Schmidt
14.25

Rickey Henderson
0.297
Cory Snyder
13.73

Hanley Ramirez
0.212
Mike Trout
13.58

Marquis Grissom
0.210
Bobby Bonds
13.53

Juan Samuel
0.210
Ellis Burks
12.47

Cesar Cedeno
0.200
Andrew McCutchen
12.44

Bert Campaneris
0.188
Dean Palmer
11.44

Mike Trout
0.178
Dave Nicholson
11.25

Jose Altuve
0.170
Chris Young
10.87

Bobby Bonds
0.169
Mark McGwire
10.76

Chad Curtis
0.169
Scott Rolen
10.61

Amos Otis
0.168
Mark Reynolds
10.60

Paul Molitor
0.166
Andre Dawson
10.26

Melvin Upton
0.163
Jose Cardenal
9.89

Andrew McCutchen
0.163
Pat Burrell
9.88

Rondell White
0.158
Juan Samuel
9.87

Ryne Sandberg
0.157
Josh Barfield
9.82

Ellis Burks
0.156
Pete Incaviglia
9.65

David Wright
0.154
Bill Melton
9.48

Matt Kemp
0.152
Alex Rodriguez
9.44

Jason Kendall
0.151
 

Five guys are on both lists. Trout is highest among them in RBI/GDP and only Samuel beats him in SCP/Out. Bobby Bonds is very close to Trout in both numbers. Hanley Ramirez was 21st in RBI/GDP ratio.