Monday, January 16, 2017

Grand Slams by Hall of Famers off of Hall of Famers

I emailed David Vincent of SABR (and probably the expert on home runs) if he had a list of cases like this. Below is what he sent me.

The other day I mentioned to a friend that I had been to a game in Montreal in 1997 and saw Chipper Jones hit a grand slam off of Pedro Martinez. As you can see from the list below, the last case was in 1995 (and the last one before that was in 1985). That ten year gap is interesting.

Maybe it has been happening less in recent years or decades as the number of teams expanded, possibly making it less likely for future Hall of Famers to face each other. Now it probably takes time for cases to make the list since it can take years for players to get into the Hall, so that might be the reason why it has not happened in twenty years. Of course, it also depends on the writers and any selection committees that choose players. Roger Clemens, for example, allowed grand slams to Mike Piazza and Frank Thomas. Without a PED issue, Clemens would be in and we would have some more recent cases

Just a few interesting points that I saw without looking too closely. Bobby Doerr did it three times. It looks like no one did it more than three times (Simmons, DiMaggio and Foxx also have three) One case was a pitcher, Bob Gibson (off of Gaylord Perry). Ted Lyons was victimized six times.

07/30/1892 Hugh Duffy off Tim Keefe
08/29/1896 George Davis off Cy Young
07/28/1898 Honus Wagner off Amos Rusie
08/19/1918 Edd Roush off Rube Marquard
05/12/1921 High Pockets Kelly off Jesse Haines
08/17/1921 High Pockets Kelly off Rube Marquard
06/16/1924 Harry Hooper off Walter Johnson
07/28/1925 Rogers Hornsby off Burleigh Grimes
05/07/1927 Lou Gehrig off Ted Lyons
06/15/1927 Al Simmons off Ted Lyons
09/27/1927 Babe Ruth off Lefty Grove
07/25/1928 Al Simmons off Ted Lyons
07/03/1929 Babe Ruth off Red Ruffing
09/17/1929 Kiki Cuyler off Dazzy Vance
08/04/1930 Charlie Gehringer off Ted Lyons
08/14/1931 Earl Averill off Red Ruffing
08/29/1931 Lou Gehrig off Lefty Grove
04/21/1932 Mickey Cochrane off Red Ruffing
06/21/1932 Goose Goslin off Red Ruffing
09/22/1932 Jimmie Foxx off Lefty Gomez
06/27/1934 Al Simmons off Lefty Gomez
09/19/1934 Jimmie Foxx off Ted Lyons
07/18/1937 Joe DiMaggio off Bob Feller
08/01/1939 Bobby Doerr off Bob Feller
09/14/1941 Jimmie Foxx off Ted Lyons
08/04/1946 Bobby Doerr off Hal Newhouser
06/21/1947 Bobby Doerr off Bob Feller
07/22/1948 Joe DiMaggio off Bob Feller
05/21/1950 Joe DiMaggio off Early Wynn
06/07/1953 Yogi Berra off Satchel Paige
04/22/1956 Stan Musial off Warren Spahn
07/30/1956 Mickey Mantle off Bob Lemon
06/29/1958 Hank Aaron off Don Drysdale
07/29/1958 Ted Williams off Jim Bunning
08/29/1959 Ernie Banks off Warren Spahn
07/16/1960 Yogi Berra off Jim Bunning
09/19/1961 Willie Mays off Warren Spahn
08/14/1963 Hank Aaron off Don Drysdale
08/22/1963 Joe Torre off Juan Marichal
08/25/1963 Frank Robinson off Gaylord Perry
05/20/1965 Eddie Mathews off Warren Spahn
09/29/1965 Bob Gibson off Gaylord Perry
09/05/1966 Bill Mazeroski off Phil Niekro
07/02/1972 Willie McCovey off Don Sutton
05/06/1979 Gary Carter off Gaylord Perry
05/07/1985 Gary Carter off Bruce Sutter
06/16/1995 Kirby Puckett off Randy Johnson

Thursday, January 5, 2017

Vladimir Guerrero, MVP Award Shares And The Hall Of Fame

Click here to see the MVP Award Shares rankings at Baseball Reference.

Guerrero  ranks 39th. He won the award once and had 5 other top 10 finishes including 3 in the top 5. So he was well regarded by the writers while he played (although not the exact same set of writers who will vote for the Hall).

If we look at those guys ranked 40-80, we see that 26 are in the Hall. That is 63.4%. Here are the ones who are not in the Hall

Jeff Bagwell (1 win)
Derek Jeter
Juan Gonzalez (2 wins)
Andrew McCutchen (1 win)
Ryan Howard (1 win)
Gary Sheffield
Steve Garvey (1 win)
Sammy Sosa (1 win)
Chipper Jones (1 win)
Albert Belle
George Foster (1 win)
Joey Votto (1 win)
Dale Murphy (2 wins)
Pedro Guerrero
Adrian Beltre

It looks like 6 of these 15 have not yet become eligible. So that means 26 out of the next 35 guys ranked lower than Guerrero are in the Hall, good for 74.3%. And he is 125th in career WAR among position players, which is very good.

Yahoo Sports has an article about his case

Monday, December 26, 2016

Average Age Of The Best Players Over Five Year Periods Since 1947

Using the Baseball Reference Play Index, I found the top 10 and top 25 players in WAR for 5-year time periods starting in 1947. So 1947-51 was the first period. Then 1952-56 and so on. The table below shows these averages. The WAvg columns are the average age weighted by WAR. The two lowest averages for the top 10 were the 1957-61 periods and the 1977-81 periods.



Years
Top 10 Avg
Top 25 Avg
Top 10 WAvg
Top 25 WAvg
1947-51
30.5
29.64
30.15
29.63
1952-56
27.6
29.28
27.33
28.9
1957-61
26.6
27.62
26.59
27.25
1962-66
28.4
27.38
28.72
27.66
1967-71
29.6
28.76
29.9
29.02
1972-76
27.6
28.12
27.68
28.08
1977-81
26.1
27.56
26.25
27.48
1982-86
27.6
28
27.52
27.88
1987-91
29.1
28.32
28.97
28.38
1992-96
27.1
27.92
27.06
27.8
1997-2001
28.1
28.44
28.16
28.46
2002-06
29.8
29.56
29.8
29.74
2007-11
27.85
27.7
27.98
27.75
2012-16
27.12
28.9
27.18
28.54


The good young players from 1957-1961 were



Player
WAR
Avg Age
Hank Aaron
41.3
25
Frank Robinson
30.9
23
Al Kaline
29
24
Rocky Colavito
23.4
25


The good young players from 1977-1981 were



Player
WAR
Avg Age
George Brett
34.3
26
Gary Carter
27.4
25
Andre Dawson
26.4
24
Keith Hernandez
24.9
25
Chet Lemon
24.7
24
Willie Randolph
24.6
24
 
 

This next table shows how many of the players in the top 10 and top 25 had an average age less than 27 in each period. That means 26 or less and would include guys who were 24-25-26-27-28, so at least 2 of their seasons were at age 25 or younger. 1977-81 had six "young" players in the top 10, the most for any period. 1952-56 is second with 5. Both 2007-11 and 2012-2016 have had a large number of young players in the top 25.



Years
Top 10 < 27
Top 25 < 27
1947-51
1
6
1952-56
5
3
1957-61
4
10
1962-66
3
11
1967-71
2
7
1972-76
4
8
1977-81
6
10
1982-86
4
9
1987-91
2
8
1992-96
4
8
1997-2001
3
7
2002-06
1
5
2007-11
4
11
2012-16
2
12


This time line chart shows how many players 25 or younger had a WAR of at least 5 per team each year going back to 1946 (I used 4.75 for 154 game seasons and made similar adjustments for strike years). I did it per team since when there are fewer teams, not as many players will reach a given WAR. Baseball Reference says a WAR of 5 is an All-Star season.

It looks like the rate was pretty high for most of 1955-67. Six of those seasons were at least 0.4 and that mark has been eclipsed in only 2 seasons since then. There has been an upward trend since 2004.