OPS and OPS allowed for the Guardians and Yankees by leverage

In the table below, the first two lines show the OPS and OPS allowed by each team this year in all situations. Then the next two sections show how each team did by leverage. All data from Baseball Reference and Stathead.

Team	OPS	OPSA	Diff
Guardians	0.703	0.696	0.007
Yankees	0.762	0.701	0.061
Guardians	OPS	OPSA	Diff
High Lev	0.745	0.614	0.131
Medium Lev	0.710	0.755	-0.045
Low Lev	0.680	0.678	0.002
Yankees	OPS	OPSA	Diff
High Lev	0.744	0.624	0.120
Medium Lev	0.730	0.732	-0.002
Low Lev	0.790	0.703	0.087

The Guardians only dominated their opposition in high leverage situations. And in all situations the Yankees had a much better OPS differential (.061 vs .007).

From regressions I have done, this equation estimates team winning pct.

(1) Pct = .5 + 1.32*OPSDIFF

That predicts that the Guardians would have a .509 pct. and win 82.5 games, alot fewer than they actually did (92).

But another regression equation, broken down by leverage is

(2) Pct = .5 + .306*LOW +.420*MED + .564*HIGH

That predicts the Guardians would have a .556 pct., which would be 90 wins, pretty close to their 92 wins.

But they may have been lucky. Their hitting was much better in medium cases than low cases and then much better in high cases. I don't think that reflects some kind of special leverage hitting skill. Their low OPS allowed in high cases could be skill since their bullpen is so good.

In fact, the Guardians and Yankees were 1-2 in MLB this year in lowest OPS allowed in high leverage cases and by a wide margin.

Team	OPS Allowed in High Leverage Cases
Guardians	0.614
Yanks	0.624
Tigers	0.652
Brewers	0.665
Astros	0.677
Phillies	0.678
Padres	0.683
Rays	0.686
Dodgers	0.692
A's	0.694

For the Yankees, equation (1) predicts they would have a .581 pct. and 94 wins, their exact total. So no luck either way for the Yankees.

The Guardians are not likely to hit so much better in high leverage cases in the series because that would mean they would be very lucky and they will be facing the second best pitching staff in high leverage cases.