It was played on this date in 1988. In the 9th inning, Mike Scioscia hit
a 2 run HR off Dwight Gooden to tie the score. The Dodgers won in extra
innings to tie the series at 2-2 (some guy named Gibson hit a HR).
Gooden allowed 10 HRs that year while facing 1024 batters. Taking out 4 IBBs, his HR rate is 10/1020 = 0.0098 or 0.98%
Scioscia hit 3 HRs that year in 452 PAs. Taking out 12 IBBs, his HR rate is 3/440 = 0.0068 of 0.68%.
I
recall thinking at the time that this had to be fairly unlikely, that
Scioscia would hit a HR off of Gooden. It does not seem that platoon
splits played much of a role here. I wonder how many times a HR was hit
in a post season game when both the pitcher and the hitter had a HR%
under 1.
Gooden threw 133 pitches in that game. That could have
been a factor. But Gooden had a high that year of 138 pitches in a game
(and did not give up a HR in that game).
He did not give up a HR in any of his top 5 pitch count games that year and those all had at least 126
He had 22 starts with 100+ pitches but gave up a total of only 5 HRs in those games.
I just started looking at World Series HRs in the deadball era and it seems like alot of them were like this, both pitcher and hitter below 1%. But, that was probably true for almost all World Series PAs during this time. So given that there were 6839 World Series PAs from 1903-1919, alot of the HRs would fit this criteria. And some were inside the park.
where PB is the hitter’s HR%, PP is the HR% allowed by the pitcher and PL is the league HR%. PB,P is the probability (or %) that the player will hit a HR against the pitcher.
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