Monday, May 29, 2023

Who were the best leadoff men in 2022?

I did a post like this several years ago. My measure then was how many times did a batter put himself in scoring position by 2B, 3B and SB divided by how many outs they made. 

The idea is that it is not just enough to get on base, you need to get into scoring position. But by dividing by outs, it still rewards the guys with a high OBP.

This time I decided to go with extra bases (XB) divided by outs.  To get XBs it is SB + 2B +2*3B. Outs is (AB - H) + CS + GDP. I only need to do GDP once since an out is already part of AB - H. I don't include HRs because it seems like a team would want to bat a big HR hitter lower in the order. All data comes from Babseball Reference.

The table below has the top 10 from last year for guys who had 400+ PAs. The guys in read had 300+ PAs as a leadoff man. Some of the other guys might have batted leadoff, too, but had less than 300 PAs there.

Player

XB

Outs

XB/Outs

Jon Berti

64

283

0.226

Jorge Mateo

74

402

0.184

Michael Harris II

53

300

0.177

Randy Arozarena

79

461

0.171

José Ramírez

74

445

0.166

Tommy Edman

71

437

0.162

Cedric Mullins

74

465

0.159

Bobby Witt

73

460

0.159

Trea Turner

74

470

0.157

J.T. Realmuto

57

373

0.153

 

Berti had 
 
17 2Bs 
3 3Bs 
41 SBs

358 ABs
86 Hits
5 CS
6 GDP

Berti had 258 of his 404 PAs at leadoff last year.

The next table shows the XB/Outs ratio for all the guys with 300+ PAs from the leadoff slot last year. Keep in mind that in this next table their stats are only from when they were in the leadoff slot. This does not include all their PAs last year.
 

Player

XB

Outs

XB/Outs

Cedric Mullins

74

448

0.165

Jose Altuve

57

378

0.151

Steven Kwan

44

294

0.150

Tommy Edman

42

281

0.149

Ronald Acuna Jr.

52

361

0.144

Whit Merrifield

35

243

0.144

Mookie Betts

58

426

0.136

Yandy Diaz

30

224

0.134

Marcus Semien

49

377

0.130

George Springer

44

379

0.116

Christian Yelich

30

260

0.115

Connor Joe

29

256

0.113

Brandon Nimmo

47

429

0.110

Tim Anderson

26

242

0.107

Jurickson Profar

28

275

0.102

César Hernández

25

263

0.095

Luis Arraez

26

274

0.095

Tony Kemp

28

299

0.094

Riley Greene

23

247

0.093

Kyle Schwarber

32

380

0.084

Jonathan India

15

215

0.070

DJ LeMahieu

19

280

0.068

 
I also wanted to incorporate base running.
 
BB Ref has 
 
"Bases taken (BT): Advances on fly balls, passed balls, wild pitches, balks, and defensive indifference."
 
They also have the number of times a runner went one more base than the hit. That includes going to third on a single if you started on 1st base, going home on a single if you started at 2nd base and going home on a double if you started on 1st base. So I added all of those to BT. Then that total got added to the XB from the first table. So there is a second total of extra bases taken which combines what you do as a batter and as a runner

BB Ref also has:

"Outs on Base (OOB): When a runner is put out while making a base running play. Example plays: out advancing on a fly ball, out attempting to reach another base on a hit, doubled off on a line drive, or out attempting to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball. Does not include pickoffs, caught stealing, or force plays."

That got added to the outs from the first table. So there is a second total number of outs made. 

The next table shows the top 10 in XB/Outs for all the guys with 400+ PAs (not just the leadoff men from the second table) using the second totals for XB and Outs. Again, the guys in red had 300+ PAs in the leadoff slot last year.

Name

XB/Outs

Jon Berti

0.308

Ronald Acuna Jr.

0.291

Josh Rojas*

0.290

Tommy Edman#

0.287

Michael Harris II*

0.282

Adley Rutschman#

0.280

Steven Kwan*

0.279

Freddie Freeman*

0.272

Bobby Witt

0.272

Jorge Mateo

0.268



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