Sunday, September 11, 2022

Pitchers with a difference of at least 1 run between their ERA and FIP ERA for qualifying seasons

I got the data from Fangraphs and looked at all seasons since 1900. Someone mentioned Carl Lundgren on Twitter and in 1907 he had a 1.17 ERA and a 2.70 FIP (BBRef has 2.73). That seems like a big difference. So I wondered what would be the largest.

Table 1 below has the top 25 in what we could call good luck. Guys who had an ERA below their FIP. I did 26 because there was a tie for 25th.

Table 1

Rank

Name

Season

ERA

FIP

FIP - ERA

1

Sammy Stewart

1981

2.32

4.11

1.79

2

Steve Trachsel

1996

3.03

4.81

1.78

3

Hal McKain

1929

3.65

5.37

1.72

4

Bump Hadley

1939

2.98

4.69

1.71

5

Steve Swetonic

1932

2.82

4.43

1.61

6

Ryan Franklin

2003

3.57

5.17

1.6

7

Elmer Dessens

2002

3.03

4.61

1.58

8

Tim Wakefield

1995

2.95

4.53

1.58

9

Dakota Hudson

2019

3.35

4.93

1.58

10

John Candelaria

1977

2.34

3.9

1.56

11

Al Leiter

2004

3.21

4.76

1.55

12

Carl Lundgren

1907

1.17

2.7

1.53

13

Bucky Walters

1939

2.29

3.81

1.52

14

Doug Fister

2014

2.41

3.93

1.52

15

Jeremy Hellickson

2012

3.1

4.6

1.5

16

Jeremy Hellickson

2011

2.95

4.44

1.49

17

Pat Mahomes

1994

4.73

6.21

1.48

18

Gene Bearden

1948

2.43

3.89

1.46

19

Rickey Clark

1967

2.59

4.02

1.43

20

Ted Lyons

1935

3.02

4.44

1.42

21

Rip Collins

1929

4

5.42

1.42

22

Charlie Wagner

1941

3.07

4.47

1.4

23

J.A. Happ

2009

2.93

4.33

1.4

24

Jim Turner

1937

2.38

3.77

1.39

25

Jerry Ujdur

1982

3.69

5.08

1.39

26

Lance Lynn

2017

3.43

4.82

1.39

So Lundgren is fairly high at number 12. Now for the guys who had an ERA higher than their FIP ERA. This is Table 2.

Table 2

Rank

Name

Season

ERA

FIP

FIP - ERA

1

Jack Knott

1936

7.29

5.16

-2.13

2

George Caster

1940

6.56

4.52

-2.04

3

Hub Pruett

1927

6.05

4.11

-1.94

4

Chris Bosio

1987

5.24

3.38

-1.86

5

John Burkett

1998

5.68

3.89

-1.79

6

Joe Oeschger

1923

5.68

3.91

-1.77

7

Bert Blyleven

1988

5.43

3.66

-1.77

8

Ernie Wingard

1927

6.56

4.8

-1.76

9

Bobo Newsom

1942

4.73

2.99

-1.74

10

Ricky Nolasco

2009

5.06

3.35

-1.71

11

Early Wynn

1942

5.12

3.42

-1.7

12

Jack Lamabe

1964

5.89

4.21

-1.68

13

Pol Perritt

1913

5.25

3.59

-1.66

14

Rick Wise

1968

4.55

2.89

-1.66

15

Dan Griner

1913

5.08

3.43

-1.65

16

Elmer Myers

1917

4.42

2.77

-1.65

17

Bill Sherdel

1929

5.93

4.31

-1.62

18

Henry Keupper

1914

4.27

2.65

-1.62

19

Bob Rhoads

1903

4.76

3.16

-1.6

20

Les Sweetland

1930

7.71

6.11

-1.6

21

Gene Wright

1903

4.98

3.39

-1.59

22

Chief Bender

1915

3.99

2.4

-1.59

23

Dick Ruthven

1981

5.15

3.56

-1.59

24

Claude Willoughby

1926

5.95

4.37

-1.58

25

Jaime Navarro

1997

5.79

4.21

-1.58

Then I looked at what might account for these differences, both positive and negative. I looked at the batting average and slugging percentage these pitchers allowed with both no runners on base (None) and with runners on base (ROB). From casual observation, it often seems like pitchers that have extreme differences between their ERA and their FIP ERA also have extreme differences between what they do in None and ROB situations.

Also, their fielders may have affected their numbers. So I will later look at the Defensive Efficiency Rating of their teams. DER is the percentage of balls in play that are turned into outs

Table 3 below shows the AVG & SLG for the top 10 from Table 1 in both None and ROB situations. This data comes from BB Ref. as well as the DER data.

Table 3

Name

Season

None AVG

ROB AVG

None SLG

ROB SLG

Sammy Stewart

1981

0.224

0.226

0.319

0.296

Steve Trachsel

1996

0.257

0.203

0.488

0.294

Hal McKain

1929

0.294

0.252

0.404

0.367

Bump Hadley

1939

0.253

0.221

0.358

0.319

Steve Swetonic

1932

0.237

0.217

0.353

0.316

Ryan Franklin

2003

0.248

0.255

0.415

0.417

Elmer Dessens

2002

0.255

0.261

0.392

0.458

Tim Wakefield

1995

0.241

0.209

0.407

0.321

Dakota Hudson

2019

0.253

0.234

0.435

0.356

John Candelaria

1977

0.254

0.192

0.454

0.245

 

Most of these guys did much better in ROB cases. But not Stewart, Franklin or Dessens.

Table 4 below shows the DER of their teams in the given year and what the league average was (I am not sure the context of the league average helps explain anything). 

Table 4

Name

Season

Team DER

Lg. AVG

Sammy Stewart

1981

0.710

0.711

Steve Trachsel

1996

0.702

0.687

Hal McKain

1929

0.696

0.687

Bump Hadley

1939

0.730

0.687

Steve Swetonic

1932

0.702

0.691

Ryan Franklin

2003

0.721

0.694

Elmer Dessens

2002

0.690

0.695

Tim Wakefield

1995

0.682

0.690

Dakota Hudson

2019

0.706

0.689

John Candelaria

1977

0.711

0.698

 

Stewart and Franklin were on teams with fairly high DERs. So although they did not do any better in ROB cases, maybe the good fielding behind them explains their low FIP ERAs. But that is not the case for Dessens.

The following guys are the leaders in multiple seasons with an ERA at least 1 lower than their FIP ERA.
    
Tom Glavine     4
Bob Buhl     3
Bucky Walters     3

There were many with 2 such seasons. But none of the guys from the top 10 seasons are on this short list of 3 here. At most they could have had 2 such seasons, so they did not make a habit of it. I will look at these 3 guys later. Also, for guys who had an ERA at least 1 higher than their FIP ERA, no one did it more than twice.

Table 5 below shows the AVG & SLG for the top 10 from Table 2 in both None and ROB situations.

Table 5

Name

Season

None AVG

ROB AVG

None SLG

ROB SLG

Jack Knott

1936

0.305

0.348

0.419

0.512

George Caster

1940

0.325

0.303

0.525

0.466

Hub Pruett

1927

0.301

0.327

0.379

0.412

Chris Bosio

1987

0.266

0.290

0.422

0.406

John Burkett

1998

0.254

0.347

0.391

0.509

Joe Oeschger

1923

0.303

0.377

0.372

0.498

Bert Blyleven

1988

0.259

0.343

0.388

0.497

Ernie Wingard

1927

0.285

0.355

0.393

0.500

Bobo Newsom

1942

0.243

0.292

0.325

0.409

Ricky Nolasco

2009

0.223

0.317

0.351

0.562

Except for Caster, all of these guys did much worse in with ROB. Bosio had a lower SLG with ROB, but his ROB OPS was .753 vs. .731 with NONE on.

Table 6 shows their team's DER along with the league DER.

Table 6

Name

Season

Team DER

Lg. AVG

Jack Knott

1936

0.657

0.676

George Caster

1940

0.680

0.691

Hub Pruett

1927

0.663

0.687

Chris Bosio

1987

0.679

0.697

John Burkett

1998

0.668

0.686

Joe Oeschger

1923

0.668

0.681

Bert Blyleven

1988

0.699

0.702

Ernie Wingard

1927

0.666

0.684

Bobo Newsom

1942

0.676

0.706

Ricky Nolasco

2009

0.686

0.692

The team DER for these guys was generally low. It was just a bit low for Caster. But it still is surprising that given his AVG & SLG, he had such a high ERA.

Now for Glavine, Buhl and Walters. Table 7 shows their stats for the years they qualified.

Table 7

Name

Season

ERA

FIP

FIP - ERA

Bob Buhl

1957

2.74

3.95

1.21

Bob Buhl

1959

2.86

3.88

1.02

Bob Buhl

1960

3.09

4.1

1.01

Bucky Walters

1939

2.29

3.81

1.52

Bucky Walters

1940

2.48

3.84

1.36

Bucky Walters

1944

2.4

3.41

1.01

Tom Glavine

1997

2.96

3.96

1

Tom Glavine

1998

2.47

3.5

1.03

Tom Glavine

2001

3.57

4.77

1.2

Tom Glavine

2002

2.96

4.2

1.24

Table 8 shows the AVG & SLG for these 3 guys

Table 8

Name

Season

None AVG

ROB AVG

None SLG

ROB SLG

Bob Buhl

1957

0.267

0.213

0.369

0.296

Bob Buhl

1959

0.248

0.236

0.367

0.359

Bob Buhl

1960

0.242

0.211

0.416

0.271

Bucky Walters

1939

0.217

0.224

0.318

0.325

Bucky Walters

1940

0.220

0.220

0.316

0.329

Bucky Walters

1944

0.210

0.231

0.263

0.315

Tom Glavine

1997

0.240

0.204

0.340

0.322

Tom Glavine

1998

0.245

0.228

0.348

0.291

Tom Glavine

2001

0.277

0.236

0.420

0.347

Tom Glavine

2002

0.281

0.206

0.470

0.264

For Buhl & Glavine we can see that they did much better with ROB. But not Walters. So a surprise there but the next table shows he had good defense behind him, although it does not seem like it would make that much difference.

Table 9 shows the DER for these 3 guys.

Table 9

Name

Season

Team DER

Lg. AVG

Bob Buhl

1957

0.717

0.706

Bob Buhl

1959

0.703

0.701

Bob Buhl

1960

0.709

0.703

Bucky Walters

1939

0.708

0.695

Bucky Walters

1940

0.730

0.701

Bucky Walters

1944

0.731

0.707

Tom Glavine

1997

0.700

0.688

Tom Glavine

1998

0.700

0.689

Tom Glavine

2001

0.702

0.693

Tom Glavine

2002

0.712

0.695

For his entire career, Glavine had a .256 AVG and .384 SLG with NONE on and a .260 AVG and .369 SLG with ROB. I expected to see bigger differences and that his AVG with ROB would be lower.

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