Here are some excerpts from The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract (published in 2001).
"I have a theory that the quality of play in major league baseball, over time, could be tracked by what we could call "Peripheral Quality Indicia"-PQI, for short. Hitting by pitchers is a peripheral quality indicator; the higher the quality of play, in my opinion, the less the pitchers will hit." (page 876)
"When kids start playing baseball the pitchers are the best hitters. In high school, the pitcher is still very often the cleanup hitter, but as they climb the ladder the pitchers hit less and less." (page 877)
"The best hitting pitchers of the 21st century don't hit anything like what Bob Lemon hit, or Spahn, or Newcombe, or the other good-hitting pitchers of that era." (page 877)
Another measure of quality according to James is "Usage of pitchers at other positions."
Nate Silver said something similar back in 2004. See No Hitter: Why pitchers are worthless when they pick up a bat. Excerpt:
"In modern-day baseball, being the “best-hitting pitcher” is like being the world’s fastest snail. Last year’s stat line for the Cubs staff: a combined .201 batting average, .220 on-base percentage, and .302 slugging percentage. These are the numbers that give the Cubs such an advantage over the competition?
Pitcher hitting wasn’t always so putrid. In the 1870s, the average pitcher had an OPS (on base percentage plus slugging percentage) equal to 84 percent of the OPS of an average position player. By the 1920s, it had slipped to 66 percent; in the 1950s, 58 percent. By the 1970s, things had gotten so ugly—52 percent—that a restraining order (the designated-hitter rule) mandated that American League hurlers must stay 60 feet from home plate at all times. In the 31 years since the advent of the DH, things have gotten only worse: In the aughts, pitchers are managing an OPS of .365, just 47 percent of that of everyday players.
Starting pitchers didn’t always have the ninth spot in the batting order on permanent lockdown. In pro baseball’s early days, the pitcher was often the best hitter on his team. Hall of Famer John Montgomery Ward both pitched and played shortstop in his 17-year career, compiling a .275 career batting average. Then there was the portly Boston hurler named George Ruth who won the American League’s home-run crown in 1918—a year in which he also compiled 13 wins and a 2.22 ERA. Wes Ferrell hit 38 home runs primarily as a starting pitcher in the 1930s; Don Drysdale socked 29 in the ‘50s and ‘60s; today’s active homer leader among pitchers, Atlanta’s Mike Hampton, has just 12 in his 12-year career.
But the decline in pitchers’ hitting skills during the past 100 years isn’t yet more evidence of the insidious abandonment of baseball fundamentals. Rather, the inability of pitchers to succeed against their kin is the most powerful evidence that today’s players are more skilled than their ancestors. Pitching and hitting are both so difficult now that specialization is a must—it’s almost impossible for any one person to perform both tasks competently.
As the game gets tougher, the pool of two-way players dwindles. In Little League, the best player usually pitches and plays shortstop. The same is true, to a lesser extent, in high school, where raw athletic skill is more likely to prevail over specific, learned abilities: The cleanup hitter might not only be the pitcher, but also the point guard and the starting quarterback. A few collegiate stars—Dave Winfield, Mark Kotsay, John Olerud, and Mark McGwire, for instance—star on the mound and at the plate each year. But when pro teams get their hands on a rare pitcher-hitter combo, they usually make him focus on the batter’s box. Instead of John Montgomery Wards and Babe Ruths, all we have now is a novelty item like reliever/pinch-hitter Brooks Kieschnick, who maintains his spot on the Brewers’ roster because he can both pitch and hit at an only-slightly-below-average level."
In 2000, Rany Jazayerli provided some good data on this. See Doctoring the Numbers: Pitchers’ Hitting. Excerpt:
"Let’s take a look at how pitchers have hit, over time, relative to the league. The top five ratios of pitchers’ OPS to league OPS since hit-by-pitch data (necessary to calculate OBP) became available in 1884:
Year League OPS (P) OPS (L) Ratio1886 AA .571 .628 .909 1884 AA .502 .603 .832 1895 NL .628 .761 .826 1894 NL .667 .814 .820 1887 NL .572 .707 .809
You get the picture. Back in the 19th century, pitchers frequently played other positions on their days away from the mound, and career switches from the mound to another position were quite common. The top 13 ratios are all from the 1800s; the top 20th century ratio occurred in 1901. The top 32 ratios all occurred by 1920.
The five worst ratios all time, using a 500 at-bat minimum that eliminates the American League in the DH era:
Year League OPS (P) OPS (L) Ratio1987 NL .348 .734 .474 1997 NL .356 .747 .477 1964 NL .334 .687 .487 1990 NL .345 .707 .488 1999 NL .379 .774 .489
Ten of the worst 11 ratios have occurred in the 14 NL seasons since 1986. In 1971, the overall OPS in the NL was just .685, compared to .774 in the NL last year; but pitchers in 1971 had the higher OPS, .383 to .379.
Of course, there is a much better explanation for this than that pitchers are batting against a higher caliber of competition (i.e., themselves). The AL embraced the DH in 1973, and as the DH has permeated all levels of baseball, from the minor leagues down to high school, it has meant fewer opportunities for all pitchers to hone their craft at the plate. Looking at just the five worst performances from before 1973:
Year League OPS (P) OPS (L) Ratio1964 NL .334 .687 .487 1963 NL .338 .671 .503 1965 NL .346 .687 .504 1967 NL .345 .675 .510 1959 NL .372 .727 .512
The 17 worst ratios prior to 1973, and 23 of the 24 worst ever, occurred between 1959 and 1972, which suggests that even prior to the introduction of the DH, pitchers were becoming increasingly inept with the bat.
Breaking it down by decade since the 1890s, after removing the AL from 1973 onward:
Decade OPS (P) OPS (L) Ratio AB/GAs you can see, the ratio of pitchers’ OPS to overall league OPS has declined steadily throughout history"1890s .558 .714 .782 4.02 1900s .454 .639 .710 3.50 1910s .454 .659 .688 3.19 1920s .503 .743 .677 3.23 1930s .476 .742 .642 3.22 1940s .438 .700 .627 3.06 1950s .434 .724 .599 2.88 1960-72 .371 .690 .538 2.63 1973-79 .385 .701 .549 2.48 1980s .360 .696 .518 2.34 1990s .363 .733 .496 2.15
No comments:
Post a Comment