Monday, August 5, 2013

A New, Possibly Useless Stat To Measure All-Around Offensive Skill Based On TB, SB, BB, SO And CS

What if we multiplied TB*SB*BB then divided by (SO + CS)? Who would end up on top? Maybe this is just what Bill James would call a "junk stat." Useless but maybe fun anyway.

The idea here is to combine different skills and then divide by something negative which also measures some skills.

By multiplying TB*SB*BB balance is rewarded. For example, if a guy steals 30 bases and hits 30 HRs, he gets a score of 900 (30*30). If a guy hits 50 HRs and steals 11 bases, he gets a score of 550. That is less than the 30/30. But if we added things, the latter guy would come out on top. But the 30/30 guy is more balanced.

I wanted to use "offsetting skills." Power hitters are usually good at getting total bases while fast guys are usually good at stealing bases. Power and speed don't necessarily go together.

Getting walks is another separate skill. You need a good eye and patience. Now power hitters tend to get more walks so this is not perfect. But power hitters strike out more, too and the formula divides by that (well, SO + CS).

So if you swing for the fences, you hit more HRs, raising your score. But you also are more likely to strike out, lowering your score. Something similar happens with stolen bases. When those go up, your score rises. But you are going to get caught stealing more, so your score falls. Of course, if you are fast, you can turn more singles into doubles and more doubles into triples, upping your TBs.

The ability to make contact is also rewarded since strikeouts are part of the penalty.

So the skills I am trying measure are:

-The ability to make contact
-The ability to get hits
-The ability to hit for power
-Speed (but that alone is not enough to steal bases)
-Being able to read pitchers
-Getting a good jump when attempting to steal
-The ability to get walks (a good eye and patience)

At this point I have not yet tried to adjust anything for park effects or the league average. I looked at every player who had 5000+ PAs since from 1951-2012. I start in 1951 because that is the first year both leagues continuously recorded caught stealing. The final score was divided by 1000. Otherwise, things would be in the millions.

So who would come out on top of this list? It is someone very well known who alot of people think should be in the Hall of Fame. His vote percentage has been growing in recent years. The number two guy might be a surprise.

Notice how big a lead Raines has over the number two guy, Nellie Fox.


Rank
Player
PA
CS
SB
SO
TB
BB
Score
1
Tim Raines
10359
146
808
966
3771
1330
7,715
2
Nellie Fox
9531
75
69
190
3133
650
5,238
3
Tony Gwynn
10232
125
319
434
4259
790
4,341
4
Davey Lopes
7340
114
557
852
2468
833
3,428
5
Joe Morgan
11329
162
689
1015
3962
1865
2,607
6
Richie Ashburn
7808
92
179
479
2541
1017
2,316
7
Carl Yastrzemski
13991
116
168
1393
5539
1845
2,105
8
Roberto Alomar
10400
114
474
1140
4018
1032
2,013
9
Tom Herr
6111
64
188
584
1870
627
1,878
10
Jimmy Rollins
8236
83
403
952
3234
630
1,855
11
Stan Musial
7320
31
29
461
3415
947
1,823
12
Mike Hargrove
6693
37
24
550
2176
965
1,760
13
Willie Mays
12492
103
338
1526
6066
1463
1,752
14
Barry Larkin
9057
77
379
817
3527
939
1,726
15
Chuck Knoblauch
7385
117
407
730
2583
804
1,698
16
Craig Biggio
12503
124
414
1753
4711
1160
1,687
17
Kenny Lofton
9234
160
622
1016
3433
945
1,648
18
Todd Helton
9008
29
37
1088
4124
1295
1,594
19
Rod Carew
10550
187
353
1028
3998
1018
1,486
20
Eddie Yost
6733
48
54
701
1999
1249
1,482
21
Mike Schmidt
10062
92
174
1883
4404
1507
1,471
22
Eddie Mathews
10101
39
68
1487
4349
1444
1,447
23
Dan Driessen
6344
63
154
719
2251
761
1,433
24
Barry Bonds
12606
141
514
1539
5976
2558
1,417
25
Chipper Jones
10614
46
150
1409
4755
1512
1,412


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