The table below shows the top 20 in relative SLG for ages 20-21 with at least 800 plate appearances.
The 138 would put him in 5th place and in some very great company. He also has 523 total bases combined in 2012-13. That is already the 16th best total at ages 20-21. I have him on a pace to get 368 this year. Then his total for the two years would be 683, an all-time high. Here is the top 16:
| Ted Williams | 677 |
| Alex Rodriguez | 670 |
| Al Kaline | 648 |
| Mel Ott | 647 |
| Frank Robinson | 642 |
| Vada Pinson | 638 |
| Orlando Cepeda | 625 |
| Eddie Mathews | 599 |
| Ken Griffey | 576 |
| Buddy Lewis | 567 |
| Ty Cobb | 559 |
| Cesar Cedeno | 543 |
| Jimmie Foxx | 542 |
| Tony Conigliaro | 539 |
| Hank Aaron | 534 |
| Mike Trout | 523 |
It should not be too hard for him to reach Cepeda. He would just need to SLG about .362. Slugging about .444 would get him to Kaline. He needs to slug about .547 to tie Williams, assuming he plays every game and gets about the same ABs per game he has so far this year.
Of course, his stadium is not exactly hitter-friendly. I'd be interested to see what it was like park-adjusted.
ReplyDeleteGood point. So he could be even higher.
ReplyDeleteThe Bill James Handbook gives Angels Stadium a HR factor of 81 for the years 2010-2012. I think that means that the HRs per AB for RHB is only 81% of what it is for the league average (or 19% less). So that could factor in.
I don't know where there is a SLG park factor. But last year the Angels batters slugged .428 at home and .437 on the road.
Usually teams do better at home. For all of the AL last year, it was .423 at home and .399 on the road.
The Angels pitchers allowed a .367 SLG at home and .440 on the road. Yes, pitchers usually do better at home, but for the whole league it was .397 home and .421 road. The Angels had a much bigger advantage than normal at home.
So this points to a tough park for Trout. Thanks for dropping by and commenting
So overall, the Angels hitters have a deficit of .035 compared to normal and the pitchers have and advantage of .097.
ReplyDeleteThis year it is not as big. Hitters deficit is .011, pitchers adv is .015.
If you add 10 points to SLG is relative SLG goes up about 2.5 point. So it would be 140.5 or so. Not sure how much of an adjustment to make, though.
ReplyDeleteLat year Trout slugged .586 at home and .544 on the road.
ReplyDeleteThis year it is home .594, road .543.
So the 2 years combined are probably close home/road.
Actually it is .568 homne, .563 road.
No problem dropping by! I've followed your RSS for years. I just don't always have anything interesting to say!
ReplyDeleteIt looks like Fangraphs bases its WAR on FIP ERA and it is also park adjusted (or park neutral). Below is the top 25 in career WAR from Fangraphs (but Baseball Reference does say they take fielding support into account when calculating WAR)
ReplyDeleteRoger Clemens 139.9
Walter Johnson 125.9
Cy Young 125.6
Greg Maddux 114.3
Randy Johnson 110.3
Nolan Ryan 106.5
Bert Blyleven 105.4
Gaylord Perry 104.1
Steve Carlton 103.2
Pete Alexander 98.2
Tom Seaver 97.7
Lefty Grove 93.3
Bob Gibson 91.4
Christy Mathewson 88.9
Fergie Jenkins 88.3
Pedro Martinez 86.8
Don Sutton 85.8
Curt Schilling 83.5
Mike Mussina 82.3
Warren Spahn 80.9
Phil Niekro 80.4
Kid Nichols 79.7
John Smoltz 78.4
Robin Roberts 78.2
Tommy John 75.5