Here is how it works: I used Fielding Independent ERA from Fangraphs. But first I used RSAA or "Runs Saved Above Average" from the Lee Sinins Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. It adjusts for the league average and park effects.
Take Pedro Martinez, for example. He had 2,827.33 IP and an RSAA of 496. So he saved about 1.58 runs per 9 IP. Suppose we are in a league that has an average of 4 runs per game. It means he would allow about 2.42 runs per game.
But, according to Fangraphs, Martinez had an FIP ERA of 2.91, .02 lower than his actual ERA. So I subtracted .02 from 2.42 to get 2.40. Below is the top 25 pitchers with 2500+ IP from 1876-2011.
| Pedro Martinez | 2.40 |
| Roger Clemens | 2.63 |
| Randy Johnson | 2.75 |
| Lefty Grove | 2.77 |
| Curt Schilling | 2.82 |
| Roy Halladay | 2.86 |
| Rube Waddell | 2.99 |
| Mike Mussina | 3.07 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 3.08 |
| John Smoltz | 3.10 |
| Greg Maddux | 3.11 |
| Bob Gibson | 3.17 |
| Dazzy Vance | 3.18 |
| Cy Young | 3.20 |
| Hal Newhouser | 3.20 |
| Kevin Brown | 3.21 |
| Walter Johnson | 3.21 |
| Andy Pettitte | 3.22 |
| Bert Blyleven | 3.26 |
| Kevin Appier | 3.29 |
| Kid Nichols | 3.31 |
| Dizzy Trout | 3.31 |
| Dennis Eckersley | 3.33 |
| Christy Mathewson | 3.34 |
| Rick Reuschel | 3.34 |
I also used relative runs allowed. Martinez, for example allowed 1006 runs in his career. Since he saved 496, that means the average pitcher would have allowed 1502. Since 1006/1505 is about .67, I gave him about 2.68 runs allowed per game (since .67*4 = 2.68). But then I lowered it by .02. To get 2.66. Here are the top 25 using the relative method
| Pedro Martinez | 2.66 |
| Roger Clemens | 2.85 |
| Curt Schilling | 2.94 |
| Randy Johnson | 2.95 |
| Rube Waddell | 2.99 |
| Roy Halladay | 3.06 |
| Lefty Grove | 3.12 |
| Bret Saberhagen | 3.18 |
| John Smoltz | 3.18 |
| Walter Johnson | 3.18 |
| Bob Gibson | 3.19 |
| Mike Mussina | 3.20 |
| Greg Maddux | 3.23 |
| Ed Walsh | 3.25 |
| Dazzy Vance | 3.27 |
| Christy Mathewson | 3.30 |
| Bert Blyleven | 3.30 |
| Hal Newhouser | 3.31 |
| Kevin Brown | 3.32 |
| Andy Pettitte | 3.34 |
| Eddie Plank | 3.37 |
| Cy Young | 3.37 |
| Rick Reuschel | 3.37 |
| Dennis Eckersley | 3.38 |
| Chief Bender | 3.38 |
Wanted to let you know I've got you on RSS and haven't had a post that I've disliked. Keep it up
ReplyDeleteGreat, thanks. Glad you like it
ReplyDeleteFor my money, I probably would have used 4.5 R/G. It strikes me as a little more historically accurate (though I could be wrong). Plus, the whole half-run-per-inning thing is pretty nice if you use 4.5 instead of 4.0.
ReplyDeleteSecond of all, while RSAA does adjust for league and park, does it adjust for era? In other words, saving a half-run in 2001 or 1930 would be a big deal, when the teams combine for about 11 R/G. But not NEARLY as big a deal as saving a half-run in 1968, when the teams were combining for something like a 7 R/G environment. So I would think that needs to be accounted for. If, for example, Pedro's run environment in his career was something like a 10 R/G environment (that should be fairly close), and he saved 496 runs, that's about 50 "games" worth of runs. If he had pitched in a 9 R/G environment, but STILL had 496 RSAA, that would be over 55 "games" worth of runs. It seems to me that this should be adjusted for somehow since one run in one era is not necessarily equal to one run in a different era. Simply hacking off the runs as if they were equal gives a false impression, I would think. Basically, I wouldn't be surprised if it bumped up guys like Saberhagen, Waddell, and Gibson. Just food for thought.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
ReplyDeleteYour raise some good points. I don't have any ideas on how to make the adjustments that would take into account what you mention.
I did once do a study based on runs per win. Here is the link
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/07/ranking_the_bes_1.php
But I did not use FIP ERA in that case. Just RSAA
I thought by using the % of runs saved, it might be a bit better. Because I did think that it would be easier to go below average in a high run environment.
The RSAA does take into account the league average. But as I said, it might be easier to be 1 run below average over 9 innings when the average is 5 runs per game than 3 runs per game. So that is why I used the % method. That would make saving 1 run per 9 IP in a 5 run environment equal to saving .6 in a 3 run environment.
I could adjust the RSAA the way I do it here and then calculate a runs per win and then a win total. I was also thinking of converting this to WAR
Yeah, it gets pretty tough unless you convert runs to wins. Then you start getting somewhere. But, of course, that's not what you're looking at: you're looking at rate stuff. I guess I'd recommend using the percentage method (or maybe a standard deviation method). Of course, I would use the relative percentage of FIP to ERA, rather than a straight addition/subtraction, again to account for the runs:wins ratio (but frankly, it's probably not that big of a deal). Still, this is a good idea. Good post, and thanks for indulging my thoughts!
ReplyDeleteIf I do wins based on runs saved and the context (run environment) and the runs saved also reflect FIP ERA, here are the top 25. That is using the formula which says "it takes 10 times the square root of the number of runs scored per inning by both teams"
ReplyDeleteRoger Clemens 72.53
Cy Young 63.23
Walter Johnson 55.85
Randy Johnson 55.17
Lefty Grove 50.08
Greg Maddux 49.35
Pedro Martinez 48.73
Curt Schilling 42.50
Bert Blyleven 41.98
Christy Mathewson 38.27
Bob Gibson 37.57
Grover C Alexander 37.29
Gaylord Perry 36.27
Mike Mussina 35.92
Nolan Ryan 35.79
Rube Waddell 35.31
John Smoltz 35.01
Kid Nichols 34.54
Steve Carlton 33.55
Tom Seaver 33.08
Eddie Plank 32.32
Roy Halladay 31.09
Ferguson Jenkins 30.98
Kevin Brown 28.31
Jack Quinn 28.25
If I calculate WAR using a .360 pct for a replacement pitcher and the Pythagorean formula, here is the top 25
ReplyDeleteCy Young 183.44
Walter Johnson 166.15
Roger Clemens 165.58
Greg Maddux 136.65
Randy Johnson 131.86
Bert Blyleven 129.77
Nolan Ryan 128.92
Gaylord Perry 128.45
Grover C Alexander 126.54
Christy Mathewson 124.95
Steve Carlton 122.71
Tom Seaver 117.03
Lefty Grove 114.67
Eddie Plank 112.47
Bob Gibson 108.52
Ferguson Jenkins 108.18
Curt Schilling 104.90
Pedro Martinez 104.77
Kid Nichols 103.52
Don Sutton 102.22
Phil Niekro 100.59
Pud Galvin 99.06
Mike Mussina 98.97
John Smoltz 97.69
Tim Keefe 96.69